Friday, September 21, 2007

York Centre and Windsor West

A couple of Liberal ridings today. I realize I am going to have to pick up the pace by election day. I am still going to try to finish.

York Centre: The ageless Monte Kwinter has represented for a dog's age. There have been a few bumps along the way. A tough campaign in the Tory landslide of 1995 and a nomination battle in 1999 were cause for concern. However, Kwinter was re-elected in 2003 with a majority of the votes. Kwinter was then put into cabinet as Minister of Community and Correctional Services. Although not exactly a high profile post, it does give Kwinter credibility as a person who has access to power. Kwinter's age is starting to become a factor. At 76, he's no spring chicken and unlike the US Senate, the Ontario legislature is not a retirement community.

Kwinter's challenge in this election comes from PC Igor Toutchinski. Toutchinski is getting some attention because of his roots in the riding's large Russian community and his experience in ethnic media. I discount that slightly because of Kwinter's appeal to the riding's large Jewish community including Jewish Russians. Toutchinski ran unsuccessfully for council in this area so at least half of the riding will recognize the name. However, I am unsure that will be enough to overcome Kwinter's incumbency.

The NDP (who got about 10% last time out) are putting up a Peruvian immigrant and union gal named Claudia Rodriguez. The base will be happy with the nomination, they may be less pleased when she loses badly. The Green candidate is Maria Minic.

At the end of the day, Kwinter's experience should be enough.

Prediction: Leans Liberal

Windsor West: Sandra Pupatello has had a bit of a wild ride around the cabinet table holding four different positions in four years. She briefly held the education portfolio but has since moved back into a less visible portfolio (Women's Issues). Pupatello made a name for herself on the opposition benches as a fierce critic. Her time in government has been less inspiring. All of this should mean very little in Windsor West. This is Herb Grey's old seat federally and while the NDP has claimed it federally, the riding still does not seem to turf incumbents too quickly. Pupatello is also personally very popular in the riding.

The NDP would love to win a seat in Windsor. The only problem is the prominent Liberal cabinet ministers holding the seats (Duncan's got the other seat). The NDP have thus decided to move on. If you don't believe me, check out candidate Mariano Klimowicz's website.

The Tories know their chances in Windsor are slim to nil. They've nominated Lisa Lumley who is big on full tunneling (border issue). She will lose but may be able to get some attention from Pupatello for her cause.

Prediction: Safe Liberal


Anonymous said...

Kwinter is vulnerable due to his party's discriminatory position on fair funding for all religious schools (and not just Roman Catholic Schools). There is a high number of faith-based parents in this riding who are switching alliances and will probably not vote Liberal for a very LONG time.

SVC Alumnus Blogger said...

You missed the part about Sandra Pupatello being Minister of Economic Development and Trade.

Otherwise, good blog post :-) I also do some blogging about our hero.

PUP-PUP-PUP-PUP-ATELLO all the way!!!!

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