Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Pickering-Scarborough East and Welland

Onward and upward so to speak. Two more ridings as we trudge towards election day in this most listless of campaigns.

Pickering-Scarborough East
: This riding holds the unique distinction of containing four area codes within its boundaries (416, 905, 647 and 289). This strange hybrid of the eastern edge of Toronto and the western part of Pickering is yet another product of redistribution. However, redistribution basically only served to merge parts of two Liberal ridings. Wayne Arthurs, the Liberal incumbent here, has the advantage of being the former mayor of Pickering where one would expect the Liberals to be weaker. Add this to the parts of fortress Scarborough now included, the Liberal victory should be fairly easy.

The Tory candidate, Diana Hall, ran unsuccessfully for city council on the Scarborough side last November. She was narrowly defeated by Ron Moeser. She has experience working in city hall in Toronto. While she may have garnered 6000 votes in part of the riding municipally, that is not enough to get elected provincially.

The NDP is hard pressed in much of the 905 and Scarborough so the combination, does not suit them. Thus, they have no problem handing the reins over to youth long shot Andrea Moffat who links her Facebook and MySpace pages on her site. The Green candidate is Anita Lachlan.

Prediction: Probably Liberal

Welland: The citizens of Welland have a love affair with Peter Kormos. There are not a lot of people in the province who share their sentiment but that shouldn't matter. Kormos should have no problem here. He's been the MPP for a dog's age. Nothing in this election to indicate a change. Not with the NDP polling higher province wide than they have in 17 years.

The Liberals have nominated former mayoralty candidate John Mastroianni to bear the torch. He may be able to get a few votes from people tired of supporting Kormos and his antics, but that won't be enough to sway voters.

Complicating matters for the Liberals is the presence of former Port Colborne mayor Ron Bodner running for the Tories. Bodner and Mastroianni will split the centre right so severely as to leave plenty of room for Kormos even if there is some dissatisfaction.

The Greens are running Mark Grenier.

Prediction: Safe NDP

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