Friday, September 21, 2007

Whitby-Oshawa and Vaughan

The 905 is growing rapidly and thus underwent significant redistricting since last time around. Here are a couple of ridings where that doesn't matter:

Whitby-Oshawa: Christine Elliot may not have her husband's (federal finance minister Jim Flaherty's) name but she does have all his popularity in this riding. I think of Flaherty and Elliot as the Canadian answer to Dick and Lynne Cheney or the Conservative answer to Jack Layton and Olivia Chow. Like the Cheney's they are both unabashedly right wing. Elliot took over the seat after her husband decided to pursue his federal ambitions. Defeated MP Judi Longfield gave Elliot a minor scare in the 2006 by-election, but is not around to oppose her this time around. Redistribution has given her parts of two other Tory held seats so it should cement her place.

The Liberals have nominated Laura Hammer, a local small business woman. She'll get a bunch of votes primarily because the NDP shouldn't be a factor here and the anyone but Elliot vote will go to her. The NDP candidate is a university professor named Nigel Moses. The Green candidate is Doug Anderson. If you want to read his extensive bio, here's the link.

Prediction: Probably Progressive Conservative

Vaughan: The city above Toronto is home to the man who holds the provincial coffers. Greg Sorbara is McGuinty's right hand man and is the man responsible for the provincial campaign as a whole. The brief absence from the cabinet because of an investigation into his family's business will have no impact here. Not only because Sorbara's name should never have been on the warrant in the first place but also because Sorbara probably could have been re-elected even with being under investigation. Sorbara topped 60% in 2003 and should come close to that this time around.

The PC is Gayani Weerasinghe a health care advocate among other things. The NDPer is Rick Morelli. The Green is Russel Korus. None of those names will mean anything after October 10th.

Prediction: Safe Liberal

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