Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Trinity-Spadina and Parkdale-High Park

Two more Dipper held seats for today. We'll call it in honour of the NDP win in Outremont.

Trinity-Spadina: Rosario Marchese can probably hold this seat as long as he wants. Since defeating a Grit incumbent in 1990, Marchese has won easily. The condos that are springing up at the foot of Bathurst don't favour the NDP but their are enough artists down there to make the demographics about as significant as they are in Toronto-Danforth. That is little to no impact. Marchese's solid base in the riding's large Portugese community makes him almost invulnerable.

Unlike other NDP seats the Liberals are still trying in Trin-Spa. They plucked Kate Holloway from the Greens with much fanfare. However, there is little evidence to support the amount of excitement that followed the move. Like Tories in St. Paul's, Trin-Spa Liberals are doomed to perpetual demographic hope.

Speaking of Tories, they don't matter here. Expect their candidate, Tyler Currie, to finish well back.

Prediction: Probably NDP

Parkdale- High Park: The last time Cheri Di Novo and Sylvia Watson met in a campaign there were fireworks. Watson blasted Di Novo over comments on convicts. Di Novo responded by wiping the floor with Watson in the by-election. Yes, this is Gerard Kennedy's old seat and he's probably the only Grit who could take Di Novo.

Di Novo, a former minister (in the religious, not political sense), has high popularity in the riding. This is a riding that has a had a string of very personally popular MPP's. Starting with Bob Rae and continuing with Kennedy and now di Novo. The NDP has solid support here all personalities aside, and that certainly helps.

Sylvia Watson, a former local councilor, turned a lot of voters off by attacking the good minister last time out. I don't know that the damage can be undone and frankly I was a little surprised to see her trotted out again. It's not that Watson couldn't steal this riding, it's just that I would have that Dalton and company would want to get away from what was a disastrous by-election.

Once again the Tories are basically irrelevant. Dave Hutcheon is the placeholder. The Greens are running Bruce Hearns.

Prediction: Leans NDP


Anonymous said...

Trinity-Spadina does have lots of Liberal support... federally. Chow's win last time was hard fought, and though she safely won, that was during an election in which the Liberal bums were thrown out. The next federal election will feature many voters wondering if having their much-wanted child care system axed by the conservatives was really worth an NDP vote.

My point is that there is strong Liberal support in the riding, it just needs to rally provincially. This has been a problem historically as strong candidates have not run in Trinity-Spadina until now. Marchese is favoured, but that race is a ground war, largely unseen and unheard of until election day.

Marchese himself does not have a lot to boast about. He didn't vote against the MPP pay raise, and he kept the raise for himself instead of donating to charity like the other NDP MPPs did. He's also on record for voting in 2003 for keeping public funding for religious schools.

As the NDP have no real power, there's little to hold them accountable for, so as an incumbent he has little to defend other than his inability to strongly shape broader provincial policy.

I agree that Sylvia Watson is a terrible choice, and that Cheri should -- and deserves -- to win.

Anonymous said...

I have to disagree with the comments and prediction here.

Tyler Currie has some good support in the riding as he has been active in the community for 10 years despite his young age. He has great support, good policies and lots of energy. The Liberals has been stagnant over the years in this riding, it's time for a change.

sookie said...

go greens!

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