Wednesday, September 26, 2007

London North Centre and Windsor Tecumseh

Into the southwest for two more ridings.

London North Centre: The incumbent here is Liberal Deb Matthews. She should have little trouble getting re-elected. She may not be a household name province wide, but Matthews has a strong base of support in London. The riding was held previously by Diane Cunningham but don't expect a Tory revival this time around.

Tory candidate Rob Alder brings a wealth of local experience to the table. He is not a political neophyte but I just don't see him garnering enough support to knock off Matthews. The NDP candidate is the definition of neophyte. They've gone back to their proletariat roots and dug up Steve Holmes who has had such relevant experience as driving a taxi. I believe everyone deserves a chance at elected office. However, there's little in Mr. Holmes' resume that leads me to believe that he can run an effective campaign against a popular incumbent. The lack of a strong NDP candidate hurts Tory chances here. A left wing split would make Alder a more viable candidate. The Green candidate is Brent McKenzie.

Prediction: Probably Liberal

Windsor Tecumseh: There may be some resentment towards the high profile Dwight Duncan's inability to prevent Windsor's slow decline. There could also be a backlash against the man who was responsible for McGuinty's broken coal plant promise as Minister of Energy. That said, this is still Dwight Duncan we're talking about and name recognition alone should guarantee his victory here.

The NDP hold this riding federally, and would be the logical party to challenge Duncan. They've nominated Helmi Charif a local small business owner to challenge Duncan. I assume the plan was to try to tap into the large Muslim community in the riding which would normally go Grit. Like the riding in London above, a bigger name is needed to be taken seriously.

The Tories have nominated a former head of the University of Windsor student government. It is mildly impressive that a Tory became the head of Windsor student government, but that does not mean anything in a provincial election. The Green candidate is Andrew McAvoy.

Prediction: Safe Liberal

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The NDP Long Shot is making some changes. Pickering Scarborough East is Getting organge. How much they can cover is the question but Andrea was the clear winner of all the debates and is doing very well with youth. Should be interesting to see what kind of impact can be made.

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