Friday, August 28, 2009

Seat Projection Update

The static polls (crazy Ipsos-Reid outliers aside) mean fairly static seat projections. Only three ridings have changed since last time around. Saanich -- Gulf Islands, which will be completely unpredictable with Elizabeth May in the race, is now in the Liberal column. The Tories take back Halton and Newmarket -- Aurora. Thanks again to threehundredeight for providing the polling numbers on which these projections are based.

National Seat Projection:

CPC 118
LPC 113
BQ 48
NDP 29

Province by Province

BC: CPC 18; LPC 11; NDP 9
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13; LPC 1
MB: CPC 7; LPC 4; NDP 3
North: CPC 1; LPC 1; NDP 1
ON: LPC 56; CPC 39; NDP 11
QC: BQ 48; LPC 21; CPC 6
NB: LPC 6; CPC 3; NDP 1
NS: LPC 6; CPC 3; NDP 2
NL: LPC 6; NDP 1

Once again deviations from my models have been made in Nunavut and Colchester -- Cumberland -- Musqodobolt Valley (can I please start calling it CCMV or something?). In both cases the Conservatives gain the seat.

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