Tuesday, August 11, 2009

It May Work...

... but it probably won't. Elizabeth May is apparently running in Saanich -- Gulf Islands. The riding has been a reliably decent green riding but I simply don't see the growth potential. There are some positives here. I encouraged Elizabeth May to find a riding where she could become the de facto anti-Tory candidate. I can see how Ms. May might think that could happen in Saanich -- Gulf Islands. I just don't agree with the reasoning. The 2008 results for the riding have to be almost thrown out the window because the NDP were forced to kick out their candidate. May's reasoning is that with the NDP brand weakened locally, and the Liberals not looking like world beaters out West, that she might be able to rally the centre-left vote around herself. The reality I believe is very different. NDP votes that might have easily gone Green in 2008 did not. Instead they appeared to go Liberal. I would be shocked if Michael Ignatieff makes the deal Stephane Dion did with Elizabeth May, especially consdiering there's already a nomination meeting scheduled in the riding. In order to win, she would need to peel off three quarters of the Liberal vote and a few more from the Tories. All that assumes the NDP will take as few votes as they did last time when they didn't have an active candidate.

There are no easy wins for Elizabeth May out there. I tend to think southwestern Ontario (Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound would have still been my choice) would have made more sense. To me, Saanich -- Gulf Islands looks like a mirage. She would need 40% plus to win there. I don't see her getting more than 25-30. The Green Party gets less than 15% all things being equal in my projections right now with the NDP seriously undervalued. I don't see her tripling that total to win.


Woman at Mile 0 said...

Why doesn't she run in a riding where the Greens came second? You are 100% correct that she won't win though. I think it pretty much guarantees the Cons will pick it up again now.

Aaron Ginsberg said...

Yeah, basically just takes a riding off the list for the Grits. The Green Party: Solving Climate Change one Conservative MP at a time.

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