Wednesday, August 05, 2009

Future Battlegrounds: Prairie Edition

Continuing my look at future battlegrounds, today I look at the ridings which will be most hotly contested in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. I lump Alberta into this category because I don't feel like doing a post entirely on Edmonton-Strathcona. This is once again based on the same projection I'm using for my seat projection below. Same format as last time: riding name followed by margin followed by parties within 10 points in order of projected finish. Here we go:


Edmonton -- Strathcona 5.72 CPC-NDP


Saskatoon -- Rosetown -- Biggar 4.57 CPC-NDP


Winnipeg South 1.16 LPC-CPC
Saint Boniface 1.21 LPC-CPC
Churchill 4.16 LPC-CPC
Elmwood -- Transcona 4.76 NDP-CPC
Winnipeg South Centre 4.82 LPC-CPC

What should be clear from this is just how close the Tories are to holding on to their seats in Manitoba. Also 7/56 (12.5%) competitive ridings is a fairly low percentage for the region. Although with only 1/28 in Alberta that is to be expected. For Alberta Libs wondering if there is hope in say Edmonton -- Centre, the projected Tory margin of victory in Anne McLellan old riding is 16.61 percentage points. It is the closest race outside of Edmonton -- Strathcona in the province.

1 comment:

Archie said...

The only reason Anne Mclellan won her riding was because the liberals were stuffing the ballot boxes. Once elections Canada caught on she lost. As to Strathcona, Jaffer was lazy and deserved to lose. It won't happen again.

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