Monday, August 17, 2009

Future Battlegrounds: Northern Ontario

Northern Ontario is a region with an uncertain political future. All three major parties have positives and negatives in the region. This region also features a ridiculous number of competitive ridings (8/10) being projected within 10 points. For a reference point go check out the numbers I posted in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Once again, the list of ridings projected to be within a ten point margin in Northern Ontario. Format remains riding name, margin in percentage points and competitive parties in order of projected finish.

Algoma -- Manitoulin -- Kapuskasing 0.82 LPC-NDP
Kenora 3.37 LPC -CPC
Thunder Bay -- Rainy River 3.4 LPC-NDP
Thunder Bay -- Superior North 3.42 LPC-NDP
Nickel Belt 3.46 NDP-LPC
Sault Ste Marie 7.38 NDP-CPC-LPC
Sudbury 7.93 LPC -NDP
Parry Sound -- Muskoka 7.95 CPC-LPC


Muskoka Liblog said...
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Muskoka Liblog said...

This is very interesting to me as I live in Parry Sound-Muskoka.

What is your methodology in arriving at these numbers?

I suspect that PSM will be much closer if my preferred candidate for the nomination wins.

Aaron Ginsberg said...

These projections are based on 2004, 2006, 2008 results and recent polling. Basically, my system looks at the relative strength of each party in a riding compared to their overall popularity nationally and provincially. There is no weight for a good or bad candidate. However, I have no doubt that a better candidate would mean a better rate. Parry Sound -- Muskoka is an interesting riding because of how far it's shifted to the Tories in the last three elections.

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