Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Future Battlegrounds: Atlantic Canada

Final stop on our West to East trip is Atlantic Canada. The fights are concentrated in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

New Brunswick:

Saint John 4.01 LPC - CPC
Fredriction 4.41 LPC - CPC
Miramichi 9.08 LPC - CPC

PEI:

NONE (LPC Gain in Egmont)

Nova Scotia
:

South Shore -- Saint Margaret's 2.13 CPC - NDP
West Nova 4.63 LPC - CPC
Halifax 8.1 NDP - LPC
Dartmouth -- Cole Harbour 8.92 LPC - NDP

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Avalon 7.74 LPC - CPC

Bill Casey's retirement in Cumberland -- Colchester -- Musquodobolt Valley throws the riding into a projection equivalent of no man's land. I don't anticipate an independent to win by 20 points as my projections would indicate. I'd say CPC Favoured would be a good rating. Egmont is probably within 10 points. It might actually be a Tory lead but the sudden change in the last election is hard to evaluate. All NL projections are subject to the whims of Danny Williams. This concludes my national tour. I'm not ignoring the North. I just don't trust my numbers there due to the lack of regional polling. A quick provincial breakdown of competitive ridings shows the following:

BC: 12/36 33.3%
AB: 1/28 3.6%
SK: 1/14 7.1%
MB: 4/14 28.6%
ON: 37/106 34.9%
QC: 19/75 25.3%
NB: 3/10 30%
PE: 0/4 0%
NS: 4/11 36.4%
NL: 1/7 14.4%

Of course, all of this will be kind of moot when I update my projections which should happen either later this week or next. The ridings in play probably won't change a whole lot (maybe a couple ridings will go over the 10% threshold), but the margins will.

2 comments:

The Rational Number said...

I'd bet Brooke Taylor will run for the nomination for Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, and probably get it. Mr. Taylor is a former NS Tory MLA which just stepped down before the last provincial election. He did very well in his provincial riding there, and I'd expect he'd win the federal seat with as little difficulty.

'CPC Favoured' is the least I'd say for that riding, though things are slowly changing. Mr. Taylor's provincial riding was won by an NDP (who I believe is a Baptist minister? not sure). That must've been influenced by the backlash against provincial Tories. Perhaps if there were a similar backlash against the federal CPC, they might not take this riding.

My $0.02 CDN (soon to be $0.02 USD! yay!)

Aaron Ginsberg said...

Yeah, I'd say safe Tory if it wasn't for the Atlantic Accord and the recent turfing of the provincial PC's. If Bill Casey endorsed a non-Tory or something weird like that we could see a battle.

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