Monday, August 03, 2009

Seat Projection Expansion

The seat projection for the end of July is below. Since the results (and the polling) is ridiculously static, I thought I'd take a look how strong each party's hold is on the seats that they lead in. For this purpose I'm defining any riding with a lead between 0.01 and 10 points as a "Lean"; any riding between 10.01 and 15 points as "Favoured"; and any riding with a lead of over 15 points as "Safe". I only put the lean category out to 10 points because we are in the summer, outside of the writ period. As we get closer the lean category will drop to 5 and the favoured category will go from 5.01 to 10. For now I've put the ridings within 5 points in parentheses beside each lean total. Without further ado the ratings:

Conservatives (117):
Lean: 25 (11 within 5 points)
Favoured: 13
Safe: 79

Liberals (114):
Lean: 35 (25 within 5 points)
Favoured: 19
Safe: 60

Bloc (48):
Lean: 11 (7 within 5 points)
Favoured: 8
Safe: 29

NDP (29):
Lean: 13 (5 within 5 points)
Favoured: 4
Safe: 12

This means there are 128 ridings that could conceivable change between now and election day including 48 that are projected to be within 5 points. Remember that these totals include ridings that would be considered pick-ups from the 2008 result.

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