Monday, August 10, 2009

Future Battlegrounds: GTA

Ontario has a lot of competitive ridings. As such I've arbitrarily decided to split the province into sections. I'll start with the GTA. The GTA is defined here as all ridings within the boundaries of the city of Toronto or within the regions of Halton, Peel, York and or Durham. Same format as before:

Halton 0.11 LPC - CPC
Newmarket -- Aurora 0.48 LPC - CPC
Trintiy -- Spadina 1.59 LPC - NDP
Oakville 2.95 LPC - CPC
Oshawa 5.68 CPC - NDP
Toronto -- Danforth 7.22 NDP - LPC
Thornhill 8.18 LPC - CPC
Whitby -- Oshawa 9.03 CPC - LPC

Of note, Mississauga -- Erindale which will undoubtedly receive a lot of attention in the next election is projected to be taken by the Liberals by a little more than 10 points. That makes 5 pick ups for the Grits from the Tories in the GTA. It was one of many mind-numbing losses for the Grits last time out and my projections assume that barring another disastrous Ontario campaign, it should return to the fold. Oh, and there is absolutely no finger on the scales in Toronto -- Danforth. It actually is the second most competitive riding in Toronto. Parkdale -- High Park is next at just over 10.5 points if you're interested. The Tories best chance in Toronto remains Eglinton -- Lawrence and its unique MP, Joe Volpe. However, best chance in this case is still over 13 points off the Liberal lead. A big hill to climb.

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