Here are the last five questions:
5. Where do Bob Rae's loyalties lie?
For either Gerard Kennedy or Stephane Dion to win the leadership convention, Bob Rae needs to drop off and endorse them. The question is whether or not Bob Rae is likely to do so. Does he still have loyalty to his old friend Michael Ignatieff? Would that loyalty supersede an ideological alliance with Kennedy/Dion? This may turn into the question of the convention. Unfortunately, only Bob Rae knows the answer.
4. Is the Ignatieff campaign going forwards, backwards or stuck in neutral?
You can find pundits who would say all three. Michael Ignatieff is unlikely to get to fifty percent by racking up endorsements. While an endorsement from Dion or Rae is possible, it also seems unlikely. For Iggy to win he's going to have to do it by bleeding support from all the camps. Forming a consensus, ideally before the last ballot. Thus, the question above. Does Ignatieff have the momentum to get to fifty percent before a one on one showdown? I'm increasingly skeptical.
3. Will Michael Ignatieff make a mistake in the next week?
I know. This is mean. But come on. This guy makes a gaffe every other time there's a microphone in front of him and their are going to be plenty for him this week. The question is can Iggy stay on message and get through this week without shooting himself in the foot. This is important not only to this leadership, but how he may perform in a national election. If I was Iggy's handlers I'd be talking social policy all week. Stay away from foreign affairs and Quebec nationhood where people have questions about his position. They probably won't listen to me, but I'll give them the advice anyway.
2. Are we on the brink of another civil war?
Is there a group at this convention with no second choice? Is there anyone in Montreal this week who plans to walk out of the convention wearing a black armband a la Jean LaPierre? For the sake of the party and the country I hope not. This is an appeal to all Liberals: Get behind whoever wins this convention, your country needs it!
1. Who wins the leadership convention?
Sorry, no prognostication. Conventions, as I think I've demonstrated with these questions are impossible to predict. So, we'll have to wait and see.
I will not be in Montreal this week. C'est dommage. When I signed up for an academic exchange for 2006-2007 the Liberals were still in power. Not that this would have altered my decision, but it simply wasn't a factor. Thus, I will spend the weekend far from the nations I love in the darkness of this small Swedish city. I don't intend to post much during the convention, leave that to people who are there. Maybe some short comments here or there. I will do a wrap up analysis next week.
One last plug. If you don't have a home on the second ballot, go talk to the Gerard Kennedy people. Talk to them in French if you need to, just go with an open mind. He would make a great Prime Minister, I believe that more today than I did six months ago when I decided to support him. This is a man of strong conviction who believes in this country and its promise. He can make Canada a better place to live. I believe it. He believes it. Please, join us in making a Canada we can be proud of.
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2 comments:
This so-called breakdown is just a not so subtle push for Kennedy and it's really pathetic. Actually, I watched Ignatieff being interviewed today and he handled himself really well.
Don't expect Rae to back Kennedy because Rae is loyal to Rae/Chretien/John Rae and the Power Corp. money and he would expect Kennedy to back him. I wouldn't think Kennedy would want to do that to himself.
Actually, it is a breakdown, and the culmination of a long list of valid questions, with a single paragraph at the end explaining the author's position.
It's interesting whose supporters find that "pathetic."
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