Sunday, November 26, 2006

Liberal Leadership Convention: 20 Questions pt. 2

Another day, another set of questions. For questions 15-20, please scroll down. Don't know why I did 6 questions yesterday, five would have made more sense. Well, what's done is done. To make up for it and because I'm feeling lazy, only four questions today.

14. Whither Joe Volpe?
I really don't want to give Volpe credit for any influence in this convention. Unfortunately, he has delegates and given the close race between Rae, Kennedy and Dion, his delegates could impact who ends up on the last ballot. So when and where does Joe Volpe go? Well, on the when side I'd say there are two possibilities. One, he makes an angry speech and drops out without endorsing anyone. Two, he waits until he's the last name on the ballot (my guess after the second ballot) and is forced to drop off. In this case, he could make no endorsement or he may endorse Gerard Kennedy. This is really just an educated guess. In the first scenario, he makes no endorsement because nobody wants his endorsement. Otherwise, he endorses Kennedy because Volpe has said that he's running for immigrants and who has the most comprehensive immigration policy? Kennedy. He has repeatedly attacked both Iggy and Rae for their lack of Liberal experience so I don't see him going there. As for Dion, while I admit the possibility, I don't see much convergence of ideas between the two. Even if Volpe doesn't endorse Kennedy, his delegates may find a home there for the reasons stated above.

13. How long does Ken Dryden last?
Ken Dryden will decide how long this convention lasts. There's a chance he could go no ballots and there's also a small chance he could go three ballots. I'd say the most likely scenario lies somewhere in between. I think how long Dryden lasts depends on what kind of offers he's hearing from the four front-runners. If he doesn't hear an offer he likes after the first ballot, why should he drop off? My guess is he finds a deal he likes after the second ballot and allows the real convention to begin.

12. Who does Ken Dryden and his delegates endorse?
The quick answer to this is I have no idea. I think there are very good arguments why he would back each of the four candidates. This is a huge wild card and one of the reasons conventions are so hard to predict. There's one interesting thing to note. A good proportion of his ex-officio and elected delegate support comes from Manitoba. Lost in the Justin Trudeau endorsement, was the endorsement Kennedy received from the leader of the Manitoba Liberals. Now, I know very little about Manitoba politics and I have no idea what kind of pull Dr. Gerrard has. If he does have influence though, Kennedy may be able to get some support from Dryden delegates with or without Dryden.

11. How many ballots does it take to get to the final four?
This is really a question that is about the media more than anything else. We need this convention to end in time so that the victory speech is on Sunday night news or at very least in time for the Monday papers. A all-nighter like the 1996 Ontario convention would be bad news for the party. We need all the good press we can get. The length of this convention is decided by how long it takes to get to four candidates. Once that happens it should only take two or three ballots to finish the deal. I have no idea what the answer to this question is, I just hope the bottom four candidates keep it in mind. My guess? Two, which wouldn't be that bad.

Tomorrow, I deal with questions directly related to the top four candidates. So stay tuned!


s.b. said...

All you care about s that the convention ends in time for the news. Good lord i hope you're not a delegate. All of the candidates and their teams have worked ten long months if not more to be there. They all deserve respect anfd time to make their own decisions without being dismissed in such a petty manner. I really do hope you are not a delegate.

aginsberg said...

Yes, people, including me, have worked hard on various campaigns. That doesn't mean that people shouldn't know when their finished. If the bottom four delegates turn this into a seven ballot debacle, the party loses. As you said, people have worked ten long months. If after all that and a week being wooed by the various campaigns they haven't figured out a second choice by now, I don't think the two or three hours it takes to run a ballot is going to magically make their decision clear. I'm not saying let's all vote for Iggy and end it on the second ballot, I'm saying let's not drag this out all night waiting for Joe Volpe to cross the floor. After ten months of Stephen Harper we need now more than ever to be aware of public perception. We need a celebratory article on the front page of the morning paper, not a footnote two days later. But, S.B. you can sleep easy, my academic engagements have prevented me from being a delegate.

Anonymous said...

Your dislike of Joe Volpe is so ill-informed and unfounded. He won't support Kennedy, not in this lifetime, and if he does support anyone on the basis of integrity, it'd be Dion. If he wants to stay in politics, he'll support Rae. As for your discrediting of him, it just goes to show that most of you bloggers are bigots and wannabes. Joe Volpe is more accomplished than ANYONE in the race. If his name weren't so non-Canadian, he might have had half a chance. Lord knows his CLEAN nad accomplished record in office speaks for itself. As for the ALLEGATIONS against him that were DISPELLED, you ought to pay more attention to the real crooks. IGGY & RAE.

Yappa said...

Too many political blog comments are petulant, mean-spirited, overly personal, off-topic and generally moronic, and Anonymous is no exception. However, I too have wondered about the basis for the incredible anti-Volpe sentiment among many (maybe even most) Libloggers. Volpe seems to be another victim of the Chretien-Martin wars. Or maybe there's something in his history that I'm missing (that's not in the wikipedia article about him)?

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