Projection Method Revision and Update

There has been a lot of commentary that my projections seem out of whack with current polling. Frankly, I agree. I diagnosed the culprit not as my system of projection, but the polling aggregates I was using to make my projections. No offense to Eric over at threehundredeight who does a wonderful job, but the innate conservatism of those numbers meant they were lagging current polling. As a result, I've tried my hand at aggregating polls. These projections are based on all public polling I could find for the last thirty days. The weighting is based on the age and sample size of the polls. Future projections will be based on a rolling 30 day aggregate. I've included my polling aggregate results in parentheses for your information.

National Picture

CPC 150 (38.13%)
LPC 77 (28.15%)
NDP 29 (14.99%)
BQ 52 (8.73%)
GPC 0 (9.39%)

Province-by-Province:

BC: CPC 21 (40.47%), NDP 10 (22.83%), LPC 5 (23.66%), GPC 0 (12.69%)
AB: CPC 28 (62.98%), LPC 0 (15.46%), NDP 0 (11.46%), GPC 0 (9.19%)
SK*: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB*: CPC 10, LPC 2 , NDP 2
ON: CPC 59 (42.87%), LPC 35 (32.42%), NDP 12 (14.78%), GPC 0 (9.66%)
QC: BQ 52 (37.46%), LPC 14 (25.51%), CPC 9 (19.54%), NDP 0 (9.77%), GPC 0 (7.09%)
NB**: CPC 5, LPC 4, NDP 1
NS**: LPC 5, CPC 4, NDP 2
PE**: LPC 4
NL**: LPC 6, NDP 1

*Prairie Aggregate:
CPC 53.06%
LPC 21.84%
NDP 18.9%
GPC 6.32%

**Atlantic Aggregate:

LPC 38.04%
CPC 31.4%
NDP 23.02%
GPC 6.97%