Friday, October 02, 2009

Projection Update: Sky Is Falling Edition

With all the bad news coverage and bad poll numbers out for the LPC this week, I've decided to throw a seat projection update on to the fire. Yes, the Liberals are down to 2006 type levels in this projection, but no they are not about to fade into the political abyss. It is somewhat reassuring for me to finally see some movement in my projection numbers. I was a little worried that they were overly historically deterministic.

CPC 127 (+7)
LPC 99 (-8)
NDP 32 (+1)
BQ 50

Province by Province:

BC: CPC 19, NDP 11, LPC 6
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB: CPC 8, LPC 3, NDP 3
North: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
ON: LPC 48, CPC 45, NDP 13
QC: BQ 50, LPC 18, CPC 7
NB: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP1
NS: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 2
NL: LPC 6, NDP 1

I'll put up some riding-by-riding numbers for some ridings in the news over the weekend.


Andy said...

Great work, Aaron. Do you account for the fact that in some provinces support for the second or third party (in particular) tends to be concentrated in a few ridings? For example in Manitoba if the polls had the Liberals and NDP both in the low 20s, the result would likely be the Liberals with 0-1 seat while the NDP would likely win around 3? The NDP vote in Ontario or N.B. or the Lib. vote in Sask. would probably be like this as well.

One request would be that you use a darker colour for the BQ: it is almost invisibly pale on my monitor.

Anonymous said...

From the 308 project;

Latest Angus Reid numbers,

This poll would give the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 151
Liberals - 75
Bloc Quebecois - 52
New Democrats - 30

All views expressed in this blog are those of the author and the author alone. They do not represent the views of any organization, regardless of the author's involvement in any organizations.

All comments are the views of the individual writer. The administrator reserves the right to remove commentary which is offensive.

The author is not responsible for nor does he support any of the advertisements displayed on the page