Thursday, October 08, 2009

Projection Update: Dead Heat... In Jeanne - Le Ber Edition

Yes, a tie has broken out in the battleground riding of Jeanne - Le Ber. The Liberals and Bloc are tied at 35.61% of the vote. I have no clue how to resolve this. I could flip a coin or draw lots but I'm going to go with the incumbent which is the Bloc's Thierry St.- Cyr. Without further ado, the rest of the projection:

National Picture:

CPC 128 (+1)
LPC 97 (-2)
BQ 51 (+1)
NDP 32

Province by Province:

BC: CPC 19, NDP 11, LPC 6
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB: CPC 9, NDP 3, LPC 2
North: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
ON: LPC 48, CPC 45, NDP 13
PQ: BQ 51, LPC 17, CPC 7
NB: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 1
NS: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 2
NL: LPC 6, NDP 1


Anonymous said...

LPC 48 in Ontario? There is no way in hell in the current circumstances the Liberals are picking up 10 seats in Ontario!!!

Anonymous said...

BC - CPC 23, NDP 9, Libs 4
Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca-turns Blue

Alberta - CPC 28
Edmonton – Strathcona

Saskatchewan - CPC 13, Libs 1

Manitoba - CPC 9, NDP 4, Libs 1

Ontario - CPC 53, Libs 36, NDP 17
Brampton West
Brampton – Springdale

Quebec - Quebec is a tough read for me but I dn't think they'll be too much change

NB - No change

NS - Libs 5, CPC 4, NDP 2

PEI- No change

NFDL - Libs 5, CPC 1???, NDP 1

North - No change

National - CPC 148, Libs 73, BQ 49, NDP 37

Note Libs might wins some seats at the hand of the Bloc so those projections are not accurate but I don't feel i can make accurate projections in Quebec.

calgarygrit said...

Which poll are these based on? It strikes me that the Tories must be in majority territory based on the Ekos numbers today. Or, at the very least, darn close.

Aaron Ginsberg said...

It's the aggregate Eric's got over at threehundredeight. The picture's a lot bleaker if I use Ekos/Strategic Council's numbers.

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