Saturday, October 03, 2009

Ridings In The News

As promised, a quick look at my current projections for some ridings making the news these days. Just a quick reminder that my projections don't compensate for strength of candidate. I'll start in BC, where Elizabeth May has taken up residency in Saanich -- Gulf Islands:

CPC 36.8% (Current MP Gary Lunn)
LPC 34.68%
GPC 15.01%
NDP 13.35%

Yes, May's Greens are projected third. A reminder that this riding lacked an NDP candidate last time out which significantly distorts their projected total. Speaking of the NDP in BC, a by-election is looming in New Westminster -- Coquitlam to replace Dawn Black who moved into provincial politics. The normal warnings are in force for a by-election:

NDP 39.62%
CPC 32.63%
LPC 17.28%
GPC 9.62%

In Québec most of the noise has centered around Outremont where Martin Cauchon will take up the Liberal banner:

LPC 42.23%
NDP 28.65 (Current MP Thomas Mulcair)
BQ 13.13%
CPC 7.87%
GPC 7.09%

Once again, the massive vote shift toward the NDP in Outremont is hard to deal with in my model. Thus, the NDP may be undervalued. However, you can see why this riding is so important to Liberals in Québec who view it as one of the easiest pick ups out there. Another possible Liberal pick up in Jeanne -- Le Ber where the odd person out in Outremont, Nathalie Le Prohon is looking to carry the Liberal banner:

LPC 36.31%
BQ 35.21% (Current MP Thierry St-Cyr)
NDP 12.06%
CPC 7.18%
GPC 7.13%

There are also a couple of Bloc MP's to be replaced sooner or later in Québec. Paul Crête must be replaced in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup:

BQ 39.9%
LPC 24.78%
CPC 22.94%
GPC 5.88%
NDP 5.47%

In Hochelaga, Real Menard is gone, although his replacement might wait a bit:

BQ 44.57%
LPC 27.05%
NDP 12.48%
GPC 7.45%
CPC 6.59%

I am aware there's also a by-election to be held in Nova Scotia but as I've said before my projections for Cumberland -- Colchester -- Musquodobolt Valley are not reliable.

1 comment:

Andy said...

Wonder if BQ turnout in byelections is typically disproportionately depressed in comparison with the federalist parties' vote. I'd guess that it would typically be tougher to get BQ voters to take an interest in a federal election and that this might be exacerbated in a byelection situation where there was no highly visible national campaign going on.

All views expressed in this blog are those of the author and the author alone. They do not represent the views of any organization, regardless of the author's involvement in any organizations.

All comments are the views of the individual writer. The administrator reserves the right to remove commentary which is offensive.

The author is not responsible for nor does he support any of the advertisements displayed on the page