Thursday, October 29, 2009

Projection Update: Mr. Donolo's Hole

There seems to be a warm reception for the new man in the OLO. Best of luck to him. He's going to need some luck if these numbers are right. WARNING: THIS PROJECTION RESULTS IN A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY.

National Picture:

CPC 156 (38.91%)
LPC 70 (27.01%)
NDP 29 (15.28%)
BQ 53 (8.71%)

Province by Province:

BC: CPC 21, NDP 10, LPC 5
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB: CPC 12, NDP 2
ON: CPC 61, LPC 33, NDP 12
QC: BQ 53, LPC 13, CPC 9
NB: CPC 6, LPC 3, NDP 1
NS: LPC 5, CPC 4, NDP 2
NL: LPC 5, NDP 1, CPC 1

That's downright ugly for the Grits. I will note that although the numbers indicate Avalon (NL) going Tory, that may or not be accurate depending on the mood of Premier Williams. The Liberals being shut out in Manitoba is a distressing possibility. This projection also would mean a loss of the two Liberal ridings in Southwestern Ontario: Guelph and London North Centre. Yes, it is possible for a party to win a majority with the current set up.


CanadianSense said...

Why are you using decimal places?

It suggests a much higher accuracy that exists.

I don't think it is FAIR for Pete Donolo to fix the numbers, short or long term.

A false hope, channel change attempt is understandable.

The LPC are close to their Oct 2008 official results, how is this a big slide?

The CPC are close to the Oct 2008 results.

We are talking about 1-2% with October 2008 election results. (Official Poll Oct 14, 2008)

Hinchey's Store said...

CanadianSense is right. There isn't a whole lot of difference from last year's election results. However the trend is different this year - The Conservatives have been polling at this level or higher for over a month, whereas last year they couldn't maintain a 40% result for more than 1 or 2 polls. These numbers seem far more entrenched, which would bode well for the Conservatives - they do tend to perform a little bit better at election time than the polls usually indicate...

CanadianSense said...


HS they were trending high and the Liberals low before the election.

That is why the NEWS 24/7 machine is pathetic.

Take a look at the polls leading up to the election.

The PM can read the Polls and he baited the opposition by having them publicly refuting his agenda and swear in front of the MSM they would not support his Fall Agenda.

It was not chess but checkers and the rocket scientists in the oppositions could not see it.

Aaron Ginsberg said...

I don't think Donolo is a magician but it is the big news of the week and I need something to label my projection update. I realize it isn't that far from the 2008 result. I think for Liberals, who mostly view 2008 as a low point, to be even a little bit below that is a disaster. The percentages are based on my polling aggregate and obviously has a margin of error (that I'm not about to try to calculate). However, because it is an aggregate you do get a wider survey, albeit over a longer period of time. Do I guarantee this result if the election were today to two decimal places? No. However, at least one of the ridings (London North Centre) is separated by less than 1/10th of 1%. If my next aggregate is just a little bit different it could switch sides and if I only gave one decimal point, you'd ask me what the hell was going on.

CanadianSense said...

You produce a wonderful blog.

I enjoy your posts.

Regardless of our differences, it is very important to keep learning and listening.

I am guilty of making fun or mucking about and have not tried to point this post out.

Just an observation.

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