Sunday, October 04, 2009

Stephen Harper's Culture of Defeatism

The four by-elections have been called for November 9th. It is interesting that the Conservatives are not just downplaying their chances in Qu├ębec and BC but also in Nova Scotia. Cumberland --Colchester -- Musquodobolt Valley is as safe a Conservative seat as they come. If you don't count the victory by exiled Conservative turned independent Bill Casey in the last election, the Tories have only lost the riding once in the slaughter of 1993. For Tories to be saying they don't expect to win any of the seats means one of two things: either they think that people in rural Nova Scotia are still angry about the Atlantic Accord etc. or they think they can win there and are trying to set the bar so low that they can't help but jump over it. Time will tell. In the interim, I decided to run off a quick projection based solely on the 2004 and 2006 results and the current polling:

CPC 49.25%
LPC 21.9%
NDP 20.49%
GPC 7.35%

Those numbers explain why I've been counting this riding as Conservative in all my projections to date. It also seems to contradict the Conservatives low expectations.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

It's a whole new ballgame not reflected in your numbers.

The provincial results and a very good community-based coandidate will make a much stronger showing for the NDP.

The Liberals have credible candidate too, although maybe a little one-issued (agriculture).

The Green vote may got to the NDP since Austin is greener than most Greens.

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