Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Parry-Sound Muskoka and Niagara West-Glanbrook

Lest I be accused of ignoring Conservative strength, here are two PC strongholds:

Parry Sound-Muskoka: The heart of Ontario's cottage country is also one of the hearts of PC support in the province. Don't let Tony Clement's slim margin here federally fool you. Norm Miller (son of former Premier Frank Miller) is far more popular here than the parachuted Mr. Clement. Mr. Miller, who was first elected in a 2001 by-election to replace the retiring (briefly) Ernie Eves shouldn't face too many problems here. John Tory will play well here.

The Liberals have nominated Brenda Rhodes who used to be an assistant to Andy Mitchell federally. The local riding association went through the ringer when the riding lost its Northern Ontario designation which angered a lot of locals. Expect Rhodes to be walking a tight-rope on that issue. The NDP have nominated Sara Hall who used to head up the local riding association. About the only thing I can find on her is that she is a strong proponent of MMP. This is not exactly the NDP heartland. The Greens have nominated a school teacher named Matt Richter. None of them should pose a threat to Miller.

Prediction: Safe Progressive Conservative

Niagara West-Glanbrook: This is one of many ridings that went through the redistricting ringer since the last time around. Tim Hudak is the incumbent for a large part of the new riding and will feel quite comfortable with his new boundaries. Mr. Hudak is from the right wing of the party (he backed Flaherty in the leadership) but it won't hurt him here. Tory and Hudak are getting along fine in spite of their difference of views (Mr. Tory attended Mr. Hudak's nomination meeting) In fact, the contrast between Hudak and Tory will probably only serve to consolidate Hudak's base here.

Mike Lostracco a former principal at a local catholic board in the province will carry the banner for the Liberals. This is simply not a Liberal-friendly riding at the provincial level. The NDP are also going with a principle, Bonnie Bryan. If you type Ms. Bryan's name into google the first hit you get is an obituary of someone of the same name. That pretty much describes Ms. Bryan's chances. I can't find the Green candidate, not that it matters.

Prediction: Safe Progressive Conservative

5 comments:

Andy said...

"Redistricting"? That happens in the U.S. We have "redistribution".

Ambitious idea to predict all the ridings. Please humour me by predicting that someone other than Marchese will win mine -- surely all those condos have to have some effect.

Imagine the fun you'll have in future when you get to predict the order of finish among the MMP list candidates.

Anonymous said...

Dear All

Let me congratulate you on this undertaking to visit predictions on all 107 ridings.
With respect to Parry Sound Muskoka;
Why is Norm wetting his pants?
Well there is a possibility that his leader John Tory has screwed him on the 2 tiered education policy
The voters in PSM are not disposed to support funding of religious schools. As well go to Hansard of Tuesday March 1 2005 and see what his former leader had to say about Tories and dogs getting elected in PSM

Anonymous said...

Dear All
You are probably correct on your prediction for NWG
But...
When are the voters going to wake up and smell Deb Hutton's ass when they vote for Tim. Or are all those fundamentalists "christians" going to get out the vote while the sane voter majority sit on their hands?
Go and read Grumpy in Toronto who described Timmy as a chipmunk on speed (or somethong like that)
Priceless....

aginsberg said...

I'm attempting to be as objective as a card-carrying Liberal can be in my predictions. I am leaving my opinions of the various MPP's out as much as I can.

Anonymous said...

Aginsberg (Dear)
So how do you know that Hudak and Tory are getting along fine in spite of their differences.
Remind me again what is taught in political science courses.
Objectivity? Doubt it.
Women in politics in the Third World? Sure. That will help you analyse the upcoming election
Wake up young (person)and get behind the arcane and ivory tower of PS.
There is a whole dimension on local politics that you have to experience (and enjoy)
BUT Vote Liberal Vote Dalton

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