Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Kenora-Rainy River and Ottawa South

Quick looks at the ridings of Howard Hampton and Dalton McGuinty.

Kenora-Rainy River: Howard Hampton has held the riding for a dog's age. The NDP leader can expect to continue holding this riding for as long as he likes. A good indication of that is the fact that neither the PC's nor the Grits have nominated a candidate to date. The Liberals have been hurt badly in the area by their perceived slow/inaction on the collapsing forestry industry. The Tories are traditionally weak in this part of the province. This is a walkover. The only real question is how long Hampton will stay in this job. His wife, Shelley Martel, has announced her retirement and with most people believing this to be Hampton's last election as leader, one wonders if Hampton might call it quits soon after the election.

Prediction: Safe NDP

Ottawa South: Once upon a time the Tories thought they could unseat Dalton in this riding. However, a lot has changed and the Premier is unlikely to face a major challenge at home. The McGuinty boys are popular here as elder brother David represents the riding federally. There may be a few people who take the Premier to task over his broken promises, but it shouldn't affect the outcome. Much like in Hampton's riding, the opposition is slow to nominate a placeholder. Without a big name to try to take down McGuinty, there's no way he loses. The Liberal ship will not be sunk by Ottawa South.

Predicition: Safe Liberal

5 comments:

Just another Liberal said...

You've got that pretty much right. As someone who use to live in Hampton's riding for 18 years of my life, his seat is the safest of all. He's one of those people who everyone knows and in a small area like Kenora-rainy river being well known is pretty much what gets it for you.

As for Dalton, yes he'll keep his riding I am sure. With his brothers support, he wont fall.

Miles Lunn said...

I would generally agree with the predictions here. I don't think Kenora-Rainy River is totally a safe NDP seat as it is held by the Liberals federally, but I think Howard Hampton has enough popularity that it will stay NDP as long as he remains the MP. Only after he retires will this one become vulnerable. Unlike Southern Ontario where people vote primarily for the party, in the North, local candidates can have a huge impact. I believe this riding is after all right next door to former Liberal leader Lynn McLeod's riding and she won by a pretty large margin in 1995.

As for Ottawa South, McGuinty did have a close brush with defeat in 1999 and his brother's margin of victory wasn't massive in the last federal election, however considering he is the premier, I really cannot see him losing this one. Even were he not running here, it would still be an uphill battle for the Tories.

Radical Centrist said...

This is unrelated to your post, but I couldn't find an email address for you. We are looking for someone to argue the "no" side on the Ontario MMP referendum question for the Great Canadian Debate project - not sure if you're aware of it.

If you think you might be interested, please email me at canadianation at gmail.com. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Ok Your prediction based on past performance is likely correct.
However, I can't understand why well intentioned (but deluded) NDP voters would put any faith in Mr Hampton.
Clearly he is a liar and a egomaniac.
Let's wait and see what Shelly does with him after the election.
Just watch his (entire) performance in the legislature and you will begin to understand that his whole and only concern is me, me , me , me.....me.
He was an absolute prick at the end of the session when he refused to permit any private members' bills to pass and he refused common courtesy in acknowledging retiring members' (INCLUDING HIS WIFE)tributes.
I want to see proof that he is sending his pay raise to charity.
Every other member of his caucus was begging McGuinty to raise salaries...Howie took the low road and continues to politicise the issue, in contrast to Tory who at least saw the bigger issue.
The man is afficted with an affiction caleed SSP (shameless self promotion). He doesn't give a sweet damn about ANYTHING or ANYONE except himself. When is the NDP membership going to wake up and elect a credible and compasionate leader?
Oh ther is a bigger problem with the NDP caucus...his name is Peter.. Many the same attibutes as Howie...except he is crazy as well.

Anonymous said...

Well your "good idication" was that the Liberals and the PCs haven't nominated someone. FYI the Liberal nomination was on the 18th and Mike Wood from Dryden will be the Liberal Candidate. A quick Google seach would have found this or listening to CBC radio. And you might want to talk to people who currently live here as they will be the ones voting and many who have supported the NDP provincially are tired of loosing out having a part time MPP who doesn't even live in the riding. It is time the people in the Kenora - Rainy River voted in an MPP who will have a seat at the table of the governing part and finally get some focus on the issues here. If the NDP don't win more seats in the election, and it doesn't look like they will, they will turf Howie as he hasn't been able to get the job done. His job was to rebuild the party after Ray sank it. Howie just hasn't been able to even come close to doing it and if it hadn't been for a kind man named Dalton the NDP wouldn't even be an official party. It's time for Howie to leave and someone else to get the job done for the people in the Kenora Rainy River Riding.

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