Sunday, March 25, 2007

I suppose I should make a prediction...

On the eve of the Quebec election, it is customary for bloggers and other pundits to make predictions. Why? Because we can. This race is almost impossible to call. I don't and never have lived in Quebec which makes this even harder. This race has been, in many ways, a race to the bottom. Are Quebecois more angry about Charest's lacklustre record as premier or more dubious about the pathetic Boisclair. In a race where disenfranchisement and malaise is the order of the day, the title of this blog becomes all the more important. Local races will decide this election. Which ever party is successful in getting out the vote on election day will win. This is not a cliche, it's the truth. I honestly don't know who has the advantage in that department. As I say, I'm not a Quebecker. I will close my eyes and throw some darts at a prediction, as I said before, only because I can:

PQ: 50 seats
PLQ: 45 seats
ADQ: 30 seats

Voter turnout low. Fringe parties (Parti Vert, Quebec Solidaire) get over 5% of the vote.

I know this is a high estimate for the ADQ but I think a party which sets itself up as outsiders should do well in this election. I have no idea who governs or how they govern. However, I disagree with Mr. Ibbitson in the Globe. I don't think it would be a good idea for M. Charest to try to govern without a plurality. I think it would be a lightning rod for separatist sympathy and could easily contribute to a PQ majority in a year or two's time when the government inevitably collapsed.

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