Sunday, October 01, 2006

235/467

Yep, just about halfway through the delegate selection process. Here's what we've learned.

  • Kennedy has NO support in Quebec. This could be a huge psychological problem
  • Dion has very little support in Ontario (currently running around 11%)
  • Brison and Dryden are done. Unless Manitoba starts pouring in for Dryden or Brison sweeps the remaining delegates in Nova Scotia. Even then, it seems doubtful that they can survive. Brison might be inclined to go to the convention. Talk to Liberals for a future run. Dryden should drop out before the convention.
  • Volpe will not decide this leadership race. Thank God.
Here's what to look for going in to today:
  • E.T. phone home: All candidates home ridings will vote today. (Both ridings where Rae was elected -Parkdale-High Park and Toronto-Danforth; where MHF was defeated and where she may run next time - Newmarket-Aurora and Toronto-Centre -assuming Graham retires; Kennedy's provincial stomping grounds - Parkdale-High Park; All MP's home ridings)
  • The Battle of Ontario: Will Iggy or GK win Ontario? Outside of student clubs, the race is a virtual dead heat (Iggy by 7 delegates).
  • How the West will be won: Who wins BC? Can Kennedy hold on in Alberta? Is Rae really that strong in Manitoba? Where's the great Orchard bounce in Saskatchewan for Dion?
All these questions and more as over 200 meetings report today! I look forward to it.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Absolutely amazing.

One thing to note though. Kennedy's numbers got a sensational rebound today after an imperfect Friday. This could continue with so many Ontario votes coming in today.

And yes, Kennedy flopped in first ballot Quebec support but the camps are pretty polarized there and what i heard from one person is that Kennedy is second in many Quebeckers' minds after his time there in the summer.

This could be very interesting, and I do find it just as astounding how Kennedy is thumping Rae and Dion outside of Quebec:

Kennedy: 403

Rae: 300

Dion: 232

Anonymous said...

Absolutely amazing.

One thing to note though. Kennedy's numbers got a sensational rebound today after an imperfect Friday. This could continue with so many Ontario votes coming in today.

And yes, Kennedy flopped in first ballot Quebec support but the camps are pretty polarized there and what i heard from one person is that Kennedy is second in many Quebeckers' minds after his time there in the summer.

This could be very interesting, and I do find it just as astounding how Kennedy is thumping Rae and Dion outside of Quebec:

Kennedy: 403

Rae: 300

Dion: 232

CuriosityCat said...

Great analysis, keep it coming.

Do you have more figures on the Ontario tussle to date?

Anonymous said...

Kennedy not doing well in Quebec-that result was expected-not news whatsoever.

Kennedy is unknown in Quebec and so was Harper.

We know how that story ended.

Aristo said...

Yes Harper won 10 seats in Quebec.

You Kennedy guys are absolutly bonkers?!?!?!?!

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