Monday Thoughts

I apologize for to my three readers for my week long hiatus. I was off on the Rock where they call Prime Minister Harper Steve because "he doesn't like being called Steve." Wait, you mean promising everything to everyone can backfire? What a shock! Some other quick fire thoughts:

• Just finished Fareed Zakaria's "The Post-American World." I tend to agree with Mr. Zakaria on most points although I think he is slightly on the optimistic side in terms of the United States. At any rate an easy read and quite informative on many points. I definitely recommend it. Fans of The Daily Show will undoubtedly recognize Mr. Zakaria who has an appearance rate only rivaled by John McCain.
• Seeing the anger towards Harper in Newfoundland was refreshing. How long do you think it will be before Quebec dumps him like they did Mulroney and Borden before him?
• Harper's electoral math may be challenged by a few losses on the Rock if he doesn't do some repair work. Luckily for Mr. Dion, Newfoundlanders don't tend to vote anything except Tory and Liberal. If they are mad at Harper, he should be the beneficiary no matter what the impact of The Green Shift may be on the oil producing province.
• It is remarkable how the media insists on saying that the American race is close. Anyone look at an electoral college projection lately? Could McCain win? Sure. Is it going to take a major shift in public opinion? Definitely.
• The economy may be in the tubes, but everything's coming up roses in Gotham. Seriously, I need to see this movie. I never need to see a movie. I really never need to see a summer blockbuster. This one, I want to see.
• Speaking of the economy being in the tubes, $1.50 for a litre of gas in St. John's? Holy mackerel... or I guess cod.
• Note to self: Post on Suzuki report on provinces and climate change.

Have a good week everyone!

Either This is Very Wrong or Very Stupid

The Tories are being accused of shuffling money between local candidates and the national party in order to avoid breaking campaign spending rules. The Tories of course claim that this is all on the up and up and that in fact the national and regional ads run with the money from local candidates were run for the specific candidates. If so, the Conservatives spent nearly $50,000 to run ads in Trinity-Spadina where they got 5,625 votes. That means they spent nearly $10/vote to finish a distant third in Trin-Spa. As I said, this is either a case of shady accounting or extreme stupidity. A shiny penny if you can find the Conservative ad that mentions or shows Sam Goldstein!

Monday Musings

Thoughts on the weekend's events:

• The announcement by Frank de Jong that he wants a referendum on the Catholic School question is interesting. I agree with de Jong that we should scrap the board, I disagree about having a referendum. We elect MPP's to make the tough decisions we don't have time or want to make. Referenda are little but false populism. I'm not even going to get into how ugly that campaign would be.
• By the way, I was looking at the constitutional issues surrounding the school board, and its really not a hurdle. Constitutional matters which impact on only one province can be ammended by a simple majority of that province's legislature. Quebec has already passed an ammendment exempting them from the relevant section (93). Ontario could do the exact same thing.
• Good announcement from McGuinty on uploading social service costs from the cities. This is the kind of help he should and can give to get Toronto out of its budget crunch.
• The polls out this morning on the Ontario election border on relevant as we are less than a month away from the writ. The polls out of Northern Ontario are the most frightening in my mind. We're behind the Conservatives? Please tell me they did most of their polling in North Bay.
• I join with all Canadians in mourning the loss of yet another soldier in Afghanistan. Pte. Simon Longtin died tragically yesterday in Kandahar. My thoughts and prayers go out to his friends and family.
• It will be interesting to see how Quebeckers react to draped coffins coming back from Afghanistan.
• I know what's going to top Colbert's threatdown... My guess: he immediately regretted that decision. Seriously, this is a tragedy not a laughing matter.
• Much like Free Trade, a closer security partnership with the US is not going to be the end of the world. In fact, if it's good for business, it strengthens Canada.
• The Utah mine story has gone from tragic to Brechtian.
• Am I the only one who gets a little sick every time CNN announces the "good news" that hurricanes are "just" going to hit Mexico? Apparently, only Americans get hurt and killed by hurricanes. Ugly Americanism at its worst.
• Minnesota can't get a break these days. First a bridge collapses in the Twin Cities and now the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin wreaks havoc. The Land of a Thousand Lakes is not so peaceful.

Friday Musings

Okay, it's friday and I'm lazy here's a bunch of quick thoughts:

• To those who want my proposal for our electoral system, it's on the citizen's assembly website here.
• Did anyone else catch Gov. Mike Huckabee comparing gun owners to monkeys on the Colbert Report last night? That tape is not going to play well at a NRA convention. I don't care if he is one of the most pro-gun candidates out there.
• I have changed my opinion on Bill Richardson after his moronic comments about homosexuality being a choice. Jet lag? Give me a break. I officially like none of the Democratic contenders.
• Sticking with presidential polititcs, the Iowa Straw Poll has got to be one of the stupidest things in existence. Ron Paul got like 9% of the vote? What the?!?!?!?!?!
• Okay, I don't need a Nobel Prize in economics to know that giving millions of dollars to people who shouldn't qualify for a mortgage is stupid. Why didn't the markets figure this out BEFORE everyone defaulted?
• However, as silly as the reason for the crisis is, the crisis itself is still pretty scary. When central banks are taking steps to prevent a bank run, there's a bit of a problem.
• Cabinet shuffles are a waste of time. Although, it was nice to see Diane Ablonczy finally get her chance.
• I understand why the Grits keep comparing Harper to Bush. I just wish we'd spend more time attacking the Tories on substance.
• I'm not sure I agree with Jean Charest about the whole Charlebois thing. After all, if Marois can't win a seat the PQ won a few months ago under Boisclair, how much legitimacy does she really have? It may be tradition, but it seems to me like a pretty foolish one that stems from the days when leaders ran in ridings that they were going to get super-majorities in anyway. If the ADQ actually feels they can win the election, especially with how close the National Assembly is, why shouldn't they be allowed to try?
• I said the political class supports this not that they chose it. I know what the Citizens' Assembly is. I also know why it came to be: pressure from well-connected (and well- funded) interest groups like Fair Vote Canada. The political class is larger than the membership of the PC's and Liberals. The other two parties are almost wholly in favour of MMP along with a slew of academics and bloggers. There were big names against Charlottetown too. You ever heard of a guy named Pierre Trudeau? I think the poll which was conducted over at Progressive Bloggers shows a good indication of where the chattering classes are on this. I don't think that most Ontarians will agree.
• Oh yeah, as long as Scott's mentioning it, the Young Liberals did overwhelmingly vote down MMP in a straw poll in North Bay last week. Unlike the straw poll in Ames, we didn't even bus anyone in!
• The 60/60 requirement for passing MMP may seem extreme but it is in keeping with Canadian tradition. It mirrors the requirements for passing a major constitutional ammendment. Electoral change is too important to be decided by a simple majority.

Random Thoughts on a Friday Before the Long Weekend

It's Friday and I don't have any coherent post ideas so here goes everything:

• Peter McKay is right that you don't claim land by putting your flag there. However, it seems to me that Harper's whole "Arctic Sovereignty" thing is about going around on ships carrying the Canadian flag. Also, isn't that exactly what we and the Danes keep doing on Hans Island? The Russian kettle might be black, but I don't like hearing it from the pot.
• On a related note, can someone please explain to me why we waste resources on fighting over Hans Island? It's a rock. It's not a big rock either. Also, if it isn't Danish why is it named after some guy named Hans?
• The L.A. Galaxy are in town to face Toronto F.C. I'm more concerned about the injury-riddled home side then whether or not Becks will play. Without Marvell Wynne, Jeff Cunningham and Danny Dichio, we're toast against anyone.
• Continuing with TFC, for all you European football fans, keep an eye out for Marvell Wynne when he comes back from this little hamstring injury. If TFC doesn't pay him a ton of money he could defend in Europe. I don't think, like Mr. Lalas, that this is true for most MLS guys but Wynne is just plain good.
• Can someone please get Iggy and Rae to kiss and make up?
• Harper's feud with the media is more funny than scary at this point.
• Why don't we do civic-minded things on the civic hoilday? You'd think there would be some charitable organization that could use the day to organize massive clean-ups or something.
• Another round of congratulations go out to George Smitherman and his husband to be. The pair will get married this weekend.
• What happened in Minneapolis is a tragedy. My heart goes out to the families who lost loved ones. That said, it was a fluke. Bridges are not about to start collapsing everyday. And CNN, quick question: how many Americans have died in Iraq and Afghanistan since you started your 24 hour bridge coverage? I think five but I wouldn't have heard it from you.
• Stephen Colbert missed a chance to expose intelligent design hack Michael Behe last night. Irreducible complexity was Tolstoy's favoured proof of God. It's not science.
• By the way, The Daily Show piece (I think it was Aasif Mandvi) on Live Earth on Wednesday(?) was brilliant. If anyone thinks Stewart and co. only go after the right, watch that piece.
• Caribana is this weekend. Apparently, it is actually supposed to make money this year. If you want to see the entirety of the Toronto Police walk through downtown the next couple of nights. I really do like Caribana but all the idiots who think it is a good time to settle old gang scores make me nervous. I know that the morons are a small fraction of the community but, unfortunately, Caribana is the only one of Toronto's summer parties that makes me hold my breath. Also, it is remarkable how the weather is always Caribbean hot for this thing.

No Flip-Flops on the BBQ circuit M. Dion!

Stephane Dion is suddenly wondering what exactly constitutes that nation he voted for last winter. M. Dion twisted himself into a pretzel to vote for the Quebec nation resolution in the run up to the convention and now apparently has buyer's remorse. I am not too much of a partisan to admit when my leader makes a gaffe and this is a big one. Dion's a former sociology professor who's spent his life dealing with Quebec nationalism. How on earth did he not get this right the first time?!?! Yes, M. Dion the resolution is flawed. So why in God's name did you and so many other Liberals vote for it? The old axiom "better late than never" does not apply here. M. Dion screwed up and now he looks like he's trying to have it both ways. Heaven help us in Quebec in the next election.

Duceppe saw his shadow: 6 more months of Conservative Government

Liberals across the country should be thanking Gilles Duceppe. He has allowed the party to escape a spring election which would be horrible for the party. Why so horrible given the last polls? Well, it would be horrible because this is actually a pretty good budget. No, I haven't become a Conservative. I disagree with the budget, but it is a moderate if conservative budget. I would have liked to see at least some of the tax cuts given to social services like child care and the environment, but you can't expect blood from a turnip. This is the kind of budget Stephen Harper told Canadians he would deliver. Duceppe recognizes that this is a good deal for Quebec. By 'fixing' the 'fiscal imbalance,' Harper has given Quebec hundreds of millions this year alone. However, there are some things even a Liberal can be happy about:

• guaranteed funding for the extension of the Spadina subway and other transit improvements in the GTA. The importance of this cannot be overstated.
  
• More money for post-secondary education. No, not enough, but more money is better than less money.
• The federal debt has been lowered. The Tories have not gone into deficit yet. The burden on my generation has been lowered a bit.
• levy/rebate for fuel efficiency. I have to admit this one floored me because its such good policy. Jacking up the price of an SUV and lowering the price of a hybrid is a good way to start the fight against climate change and meet our Kyoto targets. Whether or not the Conservatives did it for that reason or not is another issue.

All in all, this is not a budget where I could honestly say the government had to be defeated to prevent its passage.

And I Thought She Got It

So Elizabeth May has announced that she's running in Central Nova. This is the wrong move on so many levels. Shall we count the ways?

1. She doesn't live in Central Nova. As far as I can tell, she never has. She's from Cape Breton and now lives in Ottawa. Either she should run in Ottawa where she's lived for over 20 years or in Cape Breton-Canso or Sidney-Victoria depending on which part of Cape Breton she's from. I believe people should live where they run. I hate the idea of voting for someone who can't vote for themselves. Cough... Jack Layton... Cough.
   
2. She can't win this race. Peter McKay can probably hold this seat till he dies. No matter how incompetent he has been at foreign affairs, he will still win in Central Nova. The Greens have got to be tearing out their hair. Here they have a charismatic leader and there's no way she gets into the house to do her thing.
3. The Greens have a disheartening tradition of running their leaders against big names (Frank de Jong v. Ernie Eves 2003; Jim Harris v. Jack Layton 2004). Ms. May is continuing in this sorry tradition. It does not give a party credibility when they aren't a little more concerned about winning their leader a seat.
4. This means that the media and the people are even less likely to treat the Greens seriously. Instead of trying to get into parliament and pursue her agenda, May has chosen to create a media circus in Central Nova. This means no place in the debate any time soon(which they don't deserve, but never mind).

When Ms. May finished second in the London-North Centre by-election I thought she had finally dedicated the Greens to getting into the House of Commons. Apparently, I was wrong. This kind of decision dooms the Greens to stay in the political wilderness. Well, as a Liberal this, like when any other party screws up, makes me happy. It just means more political space for the Grits.

Riddle me this...

So the oracle of Halton is declaring that the election will be May 28th. While I agree that Mr. Harper would love to go to the polls at that time, I don't really see how he gets there from here. Mr. Harper doesn't have a majority to work with. Furthermore, he's already said he's going to the polls four years from the previous election unless the opposition forces him to go earlier. So why exactly would all three opposition parties who are down in the polls conspire to bring about their own demise? Don't you think one if not more of the parties will support the Tory budget? First of all, this is going to be prepped as an election budget. Opposing it is going to be difficult. If the Quebec polls hold, this will in all likelihood be the PQ's worst election in thirty years, surely the Bloc is not going to think that is a good time to go to the polls. The Liberals (or at least I) would much rather have Dion go on the barbecue circuit this summer and go to the polls with better numbers in the fall. As for the NDP, did you see the puppets? Elizabeth May has them scared, really scared. They don't want to go any time soon. So how does Harper bring down the government? Does he start the election campaign by breaking yet another promise? To me, the issue he could have gone on is already been voted on. He could have made the anti-terrorism bill a confidence issue and force the opposition's hand that way. I don't see what wedge he's going to find to bring himself down on. I feel like I'm missing something here. Please help me out.

Kennedy's Lieutenants

I've returned from a frozen Warsaw to a slushy Lund. Still catching up on the news... I've been noticing that a lot of been centred in one way or another around members of the Gerard Kennedy campaign. From the strength of Mark Holland's work in question period, to Harper's slur of Navdeep Bains to the announcement of Justin Trudeau running in Papineau. What does this mean? Probably nothing. I'm just pointing out the coincidence.

Suzuki on the Environment

Okay, this is slightly out of context but from the Mercer Report:

David Suzuki "The planet?! Hell! what about my nuts?"

Isn't that what Alberta's asking?

I Thought Harper Was Smarter Than This

I just finished watching Harper's moronic attack on the integrity of Navdeep Bains and his family. This is unacceptable. There is no other word for it. Has Mr. Harper no sense of decency? Has he no shame? Has he no respect for the office that he holds? What's next an attack ad featuring Stephane Dion and Osama bin Laden a la Saxby Chambliss' attack on Max Cleland? Harper claims that he was merely pointing out the importance of the bill. Don't piss on my leg, and tell me it's raining. I thought Harper was trying to court minorities in the 905. This is the way to lose the 905 and any vote of a Canadian with a moral conscience. Mr. Harper may have just given the Liberals seats in the next election. It is tragic that it had to come at the expense of the good name of Navdeep Bains and his family. SHAME! SHAME! SHAME!

RELAX!

Would everyone take about five minutes and calm down. These Conservative ads do not warrant a full scale war. The Tories would love the Liberal Party to spend what little money it has fighting a pre-election air war. Don't give them the satisfaction. By the looks of these ads, they spent about five dollars on production. They're going to splash them on the Super Bowl against ads that have good production values. Why make such stupid and anemic ads? In hopes that the Liberals will retaliate. Let's keep our powder dry. We can laugh off these pathetic attacks. We're better than this. If Harper wants to act like he's the leader of the official opposition, let's act like a government. Let's laugh it off and get on with trying to conduct the people's business. If Harper thinks he can win an election in 2007 on broken promises from 1993, he's in for a big surprise. Let's have some faith in Canadians and in our own campaign. Let's go positive. Let's win the right way.

Eureka!

I've done it. I've figured out how to fix Kyoto. Okay, maybe not fix it but make it a hell of a lot better. I might not be alone here but I'm not hearing it in mainstream discussion. Here's the deal. As I've said before, Kyoto does penalize growth. If you, as a country, had economic success since 1990 Kyoto becomes very difficult to implement. Kyoto as it is encourages resource based and manufacturing industry out of the Kyoto bound countries and into the global south and gives carbon surpluses to weak economies. This is one of the reasons the United States will never ratify Kyoto. Therefore, this is what you do: you tie emissions to GDP growth relative to other developed countries. Instead of taking CO2 emissions straight you create the following formula.

Target= 1990 CO2 emissions x (Reduction Factor/(2012 Percentage of Kyoto bound GDP/1990 Percentage of Kyoto Bound GDP)

Here are the changes in the G8 as of 2003 (the last year I can find emission stats for):

Old Target New Target 2003 Level
(all in Millions of tons of Carbon)

Canada 106,678.72 108,094.60 154,392
Russia 541,492.00 230,980.70 407,593
United States 1,222,776.09 1,306,077.58 1,580,175
Germany 223,752.28 200,558.74 219,776
France 91,005.48 86,568.62 102,065
Italy 97,831.88 86,098.80 121,608
United Kingdom 142,945.00 153,170.64 152,460
Japan 274,679.28 237,830.32 336,142

A few things jump out from these numbers:

1. Russia's environmental record is exposed: The Russian economy collapsed between 1990 and 2003. It's percentage of the world economy has been nearly halved. It should not be producing the same kind of emissions.
2. Countries with strong economies (CAN, UK, US) get a bit of a break. It doesn't mean they get off the hook as both Canada and the US are still above their targets.
3. The Europeans are shown to be not as green as they may like. Now it is possible that if these were the existing targets Germany would be closer to meeting their requirements but it seems doubtful.
   

There is still one major problem with this formula. It relates to the Tory argument that the Bush administration has done a better job on the environment than the Liberals. This sort of statistic ignores where the GDP growth occurs. Obviously, the strong US service and tech sectors are not as polluting as the oil and other resource industries in Canada. So yes, by getting out of manufacturing cars and into telemarketing the US has become a greener country.

It is important to note that this formula would actually reduce emissions further than the one currently in place by about 12%. It makes more sense for industry and for the environment.

I appreciate any input on this proposal. If anyone could find a more recent link for CO2 emissions I'd also be grateful.

Back to the Era of Discontent

A couple stories over on Liblogs that caught my eye.

1. The Greens are at 11% in Environics' latest poll and their gains seem to be coming at the expense of the NDP
2. Apparently yet another Western protest party is sprouting in wild rose country

They seem to be expressing the same sentiment: the parties today aren't doing it. Dion needs to get out there and scream climate change at every opportunity until there's snow in Toronto. The second story probably means absolutely nothing. After all, the Western Bloc Party didn't exactly set fires last time out. This is about the worst news the NDP could receive in a non-election poll. The last thing the NDP needs is for their vote to get split by the Greens and apparently that's exactly what is happening. Maybe its time for the Jack-in-the-box to change tactics. Maybe cozying up to the Tories isn't good for the base. What a shock.

Elizabeth May has done her party well. Might I note that she has done it by going back to the party's environmental roots. She seems to be steering clear of the conservatism of Jim Harris and also away from the Green's second main issue: electoral reform. I think people are a little sick of hearing that a party with millions in federal funding can't win one measly seat. Especially, when a shock-jock in Quebec wins by a landslide. And no, a good poll does not mean May should be in the debate. The only poll that matters is on election day. Until the Greens win a seat, they don't belong in the debate.

oh yeah... one more M.P. we don't need is leaving the Liberal caucus... happy trails M. Lapierre!

Khan's Early Retirement

That's what this is. He's done. He will be back selling cars before the year is out. Mississauga gets a real Liberal. This is really good news. It doesn't seem that way, but it is. Now, if only we could get the rest of the Volpe camp to walk the plank. I know, I know. Bite my tongue. We're all one big happy Liberal family. But please Joe, Jimmy K. think about it.

Still working on my predictions (King's dog is hard to understand, I don't know how old Willy managed). They might have to wait until after I finish my paper which will put me back in Sweden. So, it might be a while. Hopefully by next weekend. Back to regular blogging when I'm back to school in a couple of weeks.