The Tories think they've got a big fish in former ambassador to Afghanistan Chris Alexander. They might have a big fish. The challenge for Mr. Alexander is he isn't running against some boomer backbencher, he's running against Mark Holland. The whole youth angle is less convincing when your opponent is six years your junior. The three time incumbent will not be easy to knock off. I'll run a full projection Sunday or Monday, but I just quickly updated my projection for Ajax-Pickering. Scroll down if you want to know how I get these numbers.
Projected Election Result for Ajax-Pickering based on polling aggregate from Sept. 17, 2009
CPC 34.2
LPC 48.4
NDP 7.57
GPC 9.52
I'm not sure a former ambassador has the name recognition to close that gap. It should be a fun one to watch.
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Alexander also wouldn't join the Liberals because Ignatieff is sticking to his "pull out of Afghanistan in 2011" - makes you wonder now what Harper is planning doesn't it?
I think he will face an uphill battle, that being said if the Tories were to pick up seats in the 905 belt, this would probably be one of the first to fall, however I agree the Liberals have a strong edge here never mind Mark Holland is popular himself. They tried running Allan Cutler in Ottawa South in 2006 and that didn't work either. I think the reason they choose this one is the Tories want to gain seats so choosing an already Tory held riding would be more or less conceding that they expect to lose seats. Nonetheless this riding is primarily suburban and does have is fairly rural in the northern parts although I am not sure how big an impact that has never mind I suspect the Tories already won those areas last time around. Its not as Conservative as the ridings to the East or North of it, but more Conservative however than any of the 416 ridings. I would probably predict a Liberal win for now, but if the Tories are polling 5-10 points ahead in Ontario, then I would go with the Tories. But for now (save this past week) that doesn't seem to be the case and I don't take one bad week for the Liberals as indicative of this continuously happening.
Based on "Projected Election Results" above, it would appear that there will be defections from the LPC, NDP and GPC to the CPC party.
Mr. Alexander will win the race (Mr. Holland will lose) because my wife does not like Michael Ignatieff (I don't like him either but I'll vote for Mark Holland).
Harper is doing everything right now. He's making all the moves that sway the swing vote; the voters who are easily manipulated by nationalistic, jingoistic, sabre-rattling rhetoric (Harper's handlers are the best money can buy).
Don't forget, Ajax / Pickering has the overpasses that are crowded with Harperites (and fellow travellers) every time a soldier comes home draped in a flag.
The Liberals are finished as the "natural governing party" for at least the next generation.
Harper will prolong Canada's involvement in Afghanistan as soon as he has a majority; he'll just change the name of the mission.
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