Sunday, September 20, 2009

Seat Projection for Mid-September

An updated seat projection for your consideration. Polls are current as of September 17th.

National Picture:

CPC 120
LPC 107 (down 2)
BQ 50 (up 1)
NDP 31 (up 1)


BC: CPC 19, NDP 11, LPC 6
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB: CPC 7, LPC 4, NDP 3
North: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
ON: LPC 55, CPC 39, NDP 12
QC: BQ 50, LPC 18, CPC 7
NB: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 1
NS: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 1
NL: LPC 6, NDP 1


CanadianSense said...

Based on your projection, does this benefit the logic of the NDP going to the Polls early?

1) They lose their only seats in 2 provinces.
2) Nominations and finances are lagging after two provincial campaigns.
3) Rehabilitation to a Doer/Dexter middle pragmatic model.

If you were an NDP strategist how would you advise them in joining the Liberal party?

Aaron Ginsberg said...

I think money is speaking pretty loudly right now for the NDP. Layton broke the bank in the last federal election. This projection also has them within a breath of holding on to Trintiy-Spadina which, subjectively, I think is a 50/50 proposition. The polls are decent for the NDP but you wonder if there's a real horse race between Harper and Ignatieff, if Layton gets lost in the shuffle. On the flip side, you could argue that you've got one of the more conservative Liberal leaders in history so there should be lots of room on the left. I don't know just how bad the finances are. If they could string together a campaign, I'd advise them to go for it.

CanadianSense said...

How can you tell? His advisors won't let him be Iggy.

I think it is a tactical mistake to have a right of centre Liberal not actively speak to those right of centre voters.

If you don't want/need the left and only want to hug the centre you have thrown away a large number of voters.

95% want some red meat on those bones and 5% are scared Harper will make it an attack ad or steal it.

Drop the gloves and let the two leaders debate those policy differences. (We don't see much)

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