Thursday, September 10, 2009

Post-Labour Day Seat Projection

With a whole bunch of new polls out, I thought it would be useful to update the seat projection. For those who may have missed my summertime projections, the model is based on current national and regional polling aggregates (taken from Eric over at threehundredeight) and the results of the last three federal elections. The model is designed to provide a projection for each of the 308 ridings. The seat projection is thus just an adding up of the riding projections. Since last time out, the Tories have made a bit of a move while Liberal fortunes have sagged.


CPC 120
LPC 109
NDP 30
BQ 49

Province by Province:

BC: CPC 19, NDP 10, LPC 7
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB: CPC 7, LPC 4, NDP 3
ON:LPC 55, CPC 39, NDP 12
QC: BQ 49, LPC 19, CPC 7
NB: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 1
NS: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 2
NL: LPC 6, NDP 1

An advantage to communicating the "always oppose" strategy know, is that some of the poll hit from causing another election may happen now as opposed to when the house actually falls.

1 comment:

CanadianSense said...

If you use the same algorithm how come you and Eric have different numbers for every province?

What about the North?

I like your tweaking the numbers look more reasonable.

Great blog, btw.

I may not share your political views but your posts are clear.

Goodluck this fall.

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