Saturday, September 26, 2009

Why I Use Polling Aggregates For My Projections

Because individual polls do crazy things especially at the regional level. Take the latest from Angus-Reid. Two jaw droppers. First in Ontario, the Tories have a 14 point lead (44-30-15). That would be eight points wider than the margin they had in 2008. Second, in order to close the Ontario gap nationally, the Liberals register a 35 (57-22-21) point lead in Atlantic Canada. That would be a full 22 points better than they did in 2008 in the region. Neither of these things are likely even close to true. Also of note: the Greens register 14% in BC and 3% in Alberta (they got 9.4% and 8.8% respectively in 2008 and Alberta was their best province in 2006). I really wish Canadian pollsters would put out fewer polls with bigger sample sizes and get results that are, to be blunt, believable.


Constant Vigilance said...

A very explanation of the uselessness of the dissection and worrying or gloating that goes on over every poll hat comes ou.

Anonymous said...

a bunch of conservative firms supported by the media trying to screw with Iggys brain..look what they did to Miller...and it got to him. Although I hear there are now three hundred thousand East Indian persons in the Toronto area and they all vote for the we have no liberal pollsters or honest pollsters..take for example the questions asked by Nik Nanos regarding leadership...just to hoist his new show on CPAC.gramps

Clown Party said...

What I can not figure out is that the Cons say that the media is LIEberal bias, and on the LIEberal sites the opposite.

I guess it boiles down to what Simon and Garfunkel (sp) said in one of their songs: "A man hears what he wants to hear and disreguards the rest."

Perhaps the media and polls are correct ... you can make the numbers say anything, and the questions are probably slanted to get results that they want.

Eather way, bring on the election and let the voters have a say.

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