Thursday, November 05, 2009

Projection Update: Pre-By-Election Edition

With by-elections in four ridings set to go on Monday, it's time for our regular projection update. The only new poll is from Ekos but my rolling aggregate has aged out three polls so it's more than one poll moving the numbers. The Liberals and the NDP get a bump this week.

National Picture

CPC 149
LPC 76
NDP 32
BQ 51


BC: CPC 21, NDP 10, LPC 5
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB: CPC 12, NDP 2
ON: CPC 54, LPC 37, NDP 15
PQ: BQ 51, LPC 15, CPC 9
NB: CPC 6, LPC 3, NDP 1
NS: LPC 5, CPC 4, NDP 2
NL: LPC 5, CPC 1, NDP 1

As for the four by-election ridings, my projections follow with all the normal "by-elections are crazy" caveats. I think the winners are probably accurate. The margins I won't vouch for. Three I can just pull from my projections:

New Westminster Coquitlam:

NDP 39.92%
CPC 36.22%
LPC 13.54%
GPC 9.64%


BQ 44.68%
LPC 22%
NDP 11.92%
CPC 11.08%
GPC 8.58%

Montmagny -- L'Islet -- Kamouraska -- Rivière du Loup:

BQ 40.01%
CPC 27.43%
LPC 19.72%
GPC 7.01%
NDP 4.9%

In Nova Scotia, trying to project around Bill Casey is a challenge. However, based on 2004 and 2006 results and current polling I get:

CPC 52.21%
NDP 18.06%
LPC 16.84%
GPC 8.29%

Make of that projection what you will. The question in Cumberland -- Colchester -- Musquodobolt Valley is whether or not people are still angry with Harper over Atlantic Accord stuff. If they are, this projection is nowhere close to accurate.


CanadianSense said...

Cumberland should be fine after all Beatlemania was so popular.

Thanks for the update.

We should do a side bet they win BC as well.

Tomm said...

Interesting projections.

I don't see CPC or LPC winning any seats. 2 NDP and 2 BQ qould be my projection.

With respect to your national projections, I think you are assuming too many Liberal seats in Ontario.

Your numbers are certainly thought provoking.

Andy said...

It will be interesting to see how the Liberal and Conservative vote compare in the Quebec seats. The Montmagny seat will be very telling for the Conservatives in Quebec. Cumberland-Colchester is one of the three or four most Tory seats in eastern Canada; it would be a huge and unlikely loss if the Conservatives lost it. It wouldn't surprise me if the Conservatives prove to be very competitive in the BC seat as well.

Aaron Ginsberg said...

Tomm, last week's projection had 4 less seats for the Grits in Ontario, so the number is in flux. Yeah, New Westminster -- Coquitlam is in play for sure. The polls in BC have a gigantic range for all the parties so depending on who's close to right we could have a very different result. Out east, I'm trying to figure out if the NDP is all hype based on a provincial result that really shouldn't matter to federal elections or an actual grassroots anti-Harper thing.

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