Sunday, November 08, 2009

Monday Quick Hits

Some quick thoughts for a Monday:
  • Now Former Deputy Premier of Ontario George Smitherman has announced his intention to run to be mayor of Toronto. For those outside of the centre of the universe, the race is open after incumbent Mayor Miller announced he would not seek re-election.
  • It may be time to check back in with fivethirtyeight. The site and its head Nate Silver, gained fame in last year's presidential election for their high level poll analysis. Silver is using his statistical powers to out what he believes is a fraudulent polling firm. The evidence seems pretty damning against Strategic Vision who Silver accuses of making up some or all of their numbers over the last few years.
  • Today is of course by-election day in 4 ridings across the country. No, the Liberals won't win any seats. No, they really didn't have a hope in hell of winning any of the seats up for grabs. No, it doesn't say anything about Liberal fortunes. Since when does a party's spin get to be the headline in a straight news story? How about "Looming by-election defeats raise questions for Harper"? It would be just as honest. They're freaking by-elections. It's the political equivalent of Plinko: you drop the writ and see where it ends up.
  • Ed Stelmach survived a confidence vote in Alberta over the weekend. Votes of the Progressive Conservative Party membership (or their delegates) have been more decisive that elections over the last forty years. That may change. The 77% approval falls in the lukewarm range. Lukewarm is generally a temperature associated with the growth of unwanted things... like right wing opposition parties.
  • Twenty years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall. It's a historical symbol that has governed the last twenty years of history. It should be remembered as such.
  • The guy who beat the indicted Fmr. Rep. William Jefferson in Louisiana wants to get re-elected. Proof? He voted for healthcare reform.
  • I'm trying to decide if the upcoming talks in Copenhagen will be detrimental to the fight against global warming or just generally useless.


Andy said...

It'll be interesting to see if any Liberals even hit the 20% mark. This was a horrible hand for Ignatieff to be dealt -- short of a miracle victory somewhere, I can't see a potential positive outcome here. It's true that if the Tories lose all four -- which is possible -- that their failure could become the big story, but alny such failure would entail that the NDP had taken (at least) two of the four. Then the big story could be the possibility that the Liberals are in danger of being supplanted as the official opposition.

However, the thing about predictions is that they tend to be wrong.

CanadianSense said...

Horrible hand?

Three Federal Parties had an opportunity to put in the effort to win those ridings. How much was invested in visits, events to build a ground game?

Excuses by all the parties. Dion was blamed from within, same standard for MI?

Andy said...

This isn't just a defeat. It's being relegated to also-ran status in four distinct regions of the country. They have squeaked past the 20% mark in Cumberland-Colchester but that seems to be by far the best result.

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