Ghosts of Dumont Haunt Bloc

The Conservatives are the big winners out of the by-elections yesterday picking up the previously Bloc held riding of Montmagny -- L'Islet -- Kamouraska -- Rivière du Loup. Rivière du Loup is of course the long time home of former ADQ leader Mario Dumont. While the ADQ is dead in the water in Québec, the small-c conservative nationalists in small town Québec who brought them to the verge of power are still a political force to be reckoned with. We forget that the original Bloc Québecois was as much a splinter of the Progressive Conservatives as anything else. The Bloc incumbent, Paul Crête, had originally defeated an old PC to gain the seat in 1993. The Bloc's uneasy relationship with small town Quebec is the stuff that Conservative majority dreams are made of. Conservatives are rightly optimistic this morning. Months after being written off in the province, they are back and winning seats. Holding this riding in a general election is of course a whole other business. Still, Harper's grand governing coalition looks more alive today than it did a week ago.

As for my projections? Well, I got the winner right in three out of four and was right that CCMV was not going to be close. My margins were way off but I attribute that at least partially to the by-elections are crazy rule of thumb. Also, 22.3% turnout in Hochelaga?!?! Of note in all the results is the terrible performance by the Green Party. This partially accounts for my margins being way off. The Greens pulled a pathetic 4.3% in BC and had their best result in MIKR at 4.8%. I always have the suspicion that the Greens get a lot of the "None of the Above" vote in a poll and that is not likely to translate into votes on election day. Still, the BC result is particularly shocking as my aggregate of polls has them at 11.48% in the province. With the Liberals exceeding expectations in Nova Scotia, the Greens are the only party to underperform my projections in every riding. By-elections should be a top priority for this party if they ever want to be an electoral force (look at what a win did for the Wildrose Alliance). Not finding 5% of the vote anywhere is a spectacular failure. The leader most under fire today should be Elizabeth May.