Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Race For the Exits: Pennsylvania Edition

Another Democratic primary is in the books. Hillary Clinton has won in Pennsylvania. The margin is not entirely clear. I of course am referring to the delegate margin which is the only thing that actually matters. She has picked up somewhere between 8 to 15 delegates on Obama who entered with a lead of about 140 delegates. In other words a small dent. Clinton should be commended for running a strong campaign, but it should be painfully obvious to everyone that she cannot win. In order to win she has to have more delegates than Obama does at the end of the day. Here are the states and territories that are left and a reasonable prediction of the result:

North Carolina (115 delegates): 62 Obama, 53 Clinton (Obama +9)
Indiana (72 delegates): Clinton 37, Obama 35 (Obama +7)
West Virginia (28 delegates): Clinton 17, Obama 11 (Obama +1)
Kentucky (51 delegates): Clinton 29, Obama 22 (Clinton +6)
Oregon (52 delegates):Obama 30, Clinton 22 (Obama +2)
Puerto Rico (55 delegates):Clinton 33, Obama 22 (Clinton +9)
Guam (4 delegates): Clinton 2, Obama 2 (Clinton +9)
Montana (16 delegates): Obama 10, Clinton 6 (Clinton +5)
South Dakota (15 delegates): Obama 9, Clinton 6 (Clinton +2)

If this scenario plays out, which would be reasonable given the polls and history, Obama's lead would be still in the ballpark of 130 delegates. That would mean she would need 225 of the remaining the 305 super delegates in order to win. That is of course assuming the outstanding superdelegates would be willing to vote against the will of the people at the convention. This is pure fantasy. She is done. She is only prolonging the inevitable. The only possible way she wins is if the Florida and Michigan delegations are seated as is. Florida is a possibility but would only give her a few delegates. Michigan, where Obama wasn't on the ballot, is not going to happen. They may seat the Michigan delegation giving the 40% of undeclared delegates to Obama. Chances are both delegations will be punished for daring to defy the DNC so even if they are seated they will not have full voting rights (perhaps the 50% that the RNC is allowing). In other words, Clinton shouldn't hold her breath waiting on Florida and Michigan.

No comments:

All views expressed in this blog are those of the author and the author alone. They do not represent the views of any organization, regardless of the author's involvement in any organizations.

All comments are the views of the individual writer. The administrator reserves the right to remove commentary which is offensive.

The author is not responsible for nor does he support any of the advertisements displayed on the page