Monday, February 04, 2008

Prediction Time

I may not have predicted the Giants shocking the Pats in the Super Bowl last night, but you should still read my predictions for the Super Tuesday states. State by state, All Politics is Local is prepared to tell you who's going to win in each party.

Alabama:

Obama, McCain

Alaska:

Clinton, Romney

Arizona:

Clinton, McCain

Arkansas:

Clinton, Huckabee

California:

Obama, Romney

Colorado:

Obama, Romney

Connecticut:

Clinton, McCain

Delaware:

Clinton, Romney

Georgia:

Obama, Huckabee

Idaho (DEM ONLY):

Obama

Illinois:

Obama, Romney

Kansas (DEM ONLY):

Obama

Massachusetts:

Obama, Romney

Minnesota:

Clinton, McCain

Missouri:

Clinton, McCain

Montana (REP ONLY):

Romney

New Jersey:

Clinton, McCain

New Mexico (DEM ONLY):

Clinton

New York:

Clinton, McCain

North Dakota:

Obama, Romney

Oklahoma:

Clinton, McCain

Tennessee:

Clinton, Huckabee

Utah:

Obama, Romney

West Virginia (REP ONLY):

McCain

There you go folks. No need to tune in tomorrow night. You heard it here first.

3 comments:

Joseph said...

Since a number may be virtual ties, I'll just tweak your predictions as follows:

Clinton squeaks by in California (mainly due to early voting already in the bank, so to speak) but also due to some mis-proportioned results of where the votes roll in from (I have read more than once that San Fran area is being more heavily factored into recent polls). I think the vote will be up across the state, where Clinton is more competitive.

Obama takes Alaska, but Clinton edges in Alabama.

Obama edges out Clinton in Delaware, but Clinton wins Massachusetts.

On the Republican side, I'd say McCain becomes the defacto selection of enough voters to carry California & Georgia (the latter a close trio but with McCain carrying the state due to Romney and Huckabee splitting the sizable conservative element.

Now for the real question on the Democratic side. I predict Clinton will carry more delegates overall but not by much (and not as many as I thought even a few days before). I'll be real specific for the heck of it ; ) and say she gains 118 more of the proportional delegates than Obama in tomorrow's contests. That means, however, that she'll be up less than 100 overall (since Obama is ahead now).

Net result - the coming contests will mean even more, and there will be more hints that Michigan and Florida delegates being left out could lead to a show-down in the end. Lots of chatter about superdelegates in reporting over the next few days as well.

On the Republican side, McCain will not secure the nomination but he'll take great strides towards it.

It'll be fun either way, and people will forget that other showdown from last evening ; ).

Anonymous said...

Yes, to many of your points joseph but Clinton is ahead now by between 80-100 delegates based on endorsements.

She will win about 200 more delegates tomorrow, maybe 300. So she will be up by at least 300 overall.

Up to half of voters have voted early in 7 states, many are also closed. Many of these polling companies are using random lists not party lists. In states where only Party members can vote this method doesn't make any sense and favours Obama.

Obama's team is trying to downplay their chances today, because they know they have overestimated and hyped.

He also had a crazy blip of a polling day on Saturday up 15% but then went down again by the same on Sunday. COuld be the Superbowl but he could also just have had an usual polling day on Sat. The Saturday is in all the recent polls.

I also believe there is a phenominon that happens when he looks like he is going to win. Three things:

1) The green party effect. People will vote for him when they think he's going to lose to show support, but not if he looks like he might win because they really dont think he should be the candidate.

2) Older women make darn sure they get to the polls even if they have to be taken from their nursing homes in a stretcher to vote for Clinton when it looks like she might lose.

3) The 19-24 crowd that is a good part of his support decide to stay in the pub and have another beer, and don't vote because they think he's going to win anyways.

All of the above happened in NH. i think it may be happening again.


Just some thoughts. I could be wrong. There could be some huge tsunami surge for Obama, but I think that even since his campaign has dialed back hard today, some of my suspicians might be true.

Anonymous said...

Something else people havent started to talk about yet but they will is this.

A tie isn't good enough for Obama. Super delegates have to support Clinton and this is why. Florida and Michigan.

For a tie you need a tie breaker. 1.5 million voters in Florida pretty much counts as a tie breaker.

The Democratic Party has to avoid this issue like the plague. Florida and Michigan Democrats will go ballistic if Obama wins a tie with Superdelegate support and they are still disenfranchised.

The Dems will lose the election.

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