Sunday, September 17, 2006

The Envelope Please

In the interest of posting something I present my projection of the liberal leadership delegate count. Student and Women's clubs are reflected based on the lists available online. I've used delegate count's projections for ex-officio delegates. I can't determine the number of Aboriginal or Senior clubs so their numbers are not reflected. I don't know if anyone else noticed but of the 82 accredited women's clubs, 21 are in New Brunswick and 1 is in British Columbia. Now, there's something for the West to be alienated about! Anyway here are my first ballot projections based on my knowledge of regional support and membership sales for each candidate:

Iggy: 23.77% (1241/5220)
Rae: 18.85% (984/5220)
GK: 18.79% (981/5220)
Dion: 13.22% (690/5220) (I admit this looks low but I can't figure out where in the country his support comes from outside of Quebec)
Volpe: 10.71% (559/5220) (I really hope this is a high projection but Volpe knows how to get the vote out and should do well in Ontario and Quebec)
Dryden: 7.13% (372/5220)
Brison: 6.57% (343/5220)
MHF: 0.67% (35/5220)
Fry: 0.29% (15/5220)


Here it is by Province:
Newfoundland & Labrador: Iggy 22.22 %; Rae 17.46%; GK 21.43%; Dion 3.97%; Volpe 3.97%; Dryden 5.56%; Brison 25.40%; MHF 0%; Fry 0%

Nova Scotia: Iggy 23.83%; Rae 8.41%; GK 7.94%; Dion 6.07%; Volpe 4.67%; Dryden 2.80%; Brison 46.26%; MHF 0%; Fry 0%

New Brunswick: Iggy 32.13%; Rae 19.28; GK 23.69%; Dion 5.62%; Volpe 4.02%; Dryden 4.02%; Brison 11.24%; MHF 0%; Fry 0%

PEI: Iggy 29.41%; Rae 19.12%; GK 32.35%; Dion 1.47%; Volpe 2.94%; Dryden 5.88%; Brison 8.82%; MHF 0%; Fry0%

Quebec: Iggy 17.84%; Rae 23.16%; GK 4.91%; Dion 28.40%; Volpe 21.11%; Dryden 3.76%; Brison 0.82%; MHF 0%; Fry 0%

Ontario: Iggy 24.76%; Rae 17.12%; GK 18.12%; Dion 10.97%; Volpe 9.42%; Dryden 11.41%; Brison 6.15%; MHF 1.83%; Fry 0.22%

Manitoba:
Iggy 36.84%; Rae 17.81%; GK 15.38%; Dion 6.48%; Volpe 6.07%; Dryden 14.98%; Brison 2.43%; MHF 0%; Fry 0%

Saskatchewan: Iggy 29.09%; Rae 24.55%; GK 25.91%; Dion 5.45%; Volpe 4.55%; Dryden 5.45%; Brison 5.00%; MHF 0%; Fry 0%

Alberta: Iggy 24.49%; Rae 10.34%; GK 38.65%; Dion 8.54%; Volpe 5.84%; Dryden 5.84%; Brison 6.07%; MHF 0.22%; Fry 0%

British Columbia: Iggy 20.73%; Rae 23.32%; GK 32.47%; Dion 7.43%; Volpe 8.64%; Dryden 3.11%; Brison 2.25%; MHF 0.17%; Fry 1.90%

The North (a complete guess): Iggy 28.89%; Rae 26.67; GK 31.11%; Dion 13.33%; Volpe 0%; Dryden 0%; Brison 0%; MHF 0%; Fry 0%

1 comment:

LiberalGrunt said...

Your Dion numbers may be a bit off because you are low-balling his potential in BC, and perhaps in Quebec. But I do know for sure that Dion is not running behind Ignatieff and Rae in BC.

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