Wednesday, June 17, 2009

The World Watches Iran

A friend of mine once commented that it seems ingrained in the French psyche that every thirty years or so they have to go out and build barricades in the streets of Paris. It's just part of the political culture. Well, apparently the Iranians have taken a page from the French playbook. In all seriousness, thirty years after the Shah was expelled, Iranians are back in the streets. Will it be a full scale revolution? Probably not, for the reason that all potential revolutions are unlikely: the power lies with the people, well, in power. You can look at anything from the Rebellions of 1837 in Canada to the riots in the streets of Paris a few years back that had people pondering the birth of a new French Republic for historical comparisons. Here's what's clear. The election was highly irregular. Check out Nate Silver's analysis if you have any doubts. There is significant popular anger over these irregularities. It is also evident that Pres. Ahmadinejad has a base of support. Mousavi's supporters were always thinking that there was enough support for Ahmadinejad to make for a close election. There also appears to be broad support for Ayatollah Khamanei. What does this add up to? I don't know. The Iranian people will come to some sort of resolution.

Side Note: We aren't going to the polls this summer? You mean bringing down a government less than nine months after it was elected in the middle of a major recession didn't make sense?

1 comment: said...

A government that lied about a 50 billion dollar deficit, a new liberal leader, and a global economic crisis that has changed everything, any many more reasons to hold an election.

It's odd to me how anyone can oppose an election... Wait, here's your tie-in with the Iranian story.

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