Wednesday, November 05, 2008

President-Elect Obama

A monumental night south of the border. Barack Obama has completely changed the US electoral map. You have to admire the tactical brilliance of the Obama campaign. Let's look at the electoral college results regionally compared to 2004 assuming NC for Obama and MO for McCain:

Northeast: EVEN (Democratic Sweep both years)
Southeast: Obama + 55 EV (NC, VA, FL)
Midwest: Obama + 38 EV (OH, IN, IA)
West: Obama + 19 EV (CO, NM, NV)

He defeated John McCain by defending his home turf perfectly and picking off red state after red state. He knew he had the money advantage and the volunteer advantage and he used it to spread McCain/Palin so far that they snapped. He lost three swing states last night (MO, ND, MT) and won in a landslide. There was just no way McCain could defend twelve states with 85 million dollars. Obama knew it and last night you saw the result. This represents not only the end of John McCain but also the law that bears his name, McCain/Feingold. No presidential candidate is likely to ever take public financing unless the law is revamped to make it more competitive. More detailed analysis will follow.

1 comment:

Miles Lunn said...

I would argue that going back to 2004, Obama won every swing state with the possible exception of Missouri. North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana were considered safe Republican seats in 2004 and only became swing recently. The fact the Republicans were in danger of losing those states was pretty much a sure sign they were about to get crushed. While this may become the new electoral map, this was probably better than what any Democrat would have even dreamed of in 2004 or 2006 and worse than the worst nightmare for the Republicans as recently as six months ago. This win was a huge win. The Republican screw ups made winning extremely difficult, but Obama's strength turned what could have been a squeaker Democrat win into a landslide.

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