It's been a significant amount of time since I've done a projection update. They take longer when I haven't been keeping my polling aggregate up to date with the latest polls and that tends to put a bit of inertia in the works when I haven't put one out in a while. At any rate, I finally bit the bullet and got it done. This is based on 9 national polls taken in the last 30 days. Significant changes from my last update a couple months ago see the Tories re-open a wide margin with most of the gains coming in Ontario. The numbers follow:
National Picture
CPC 128
LPC 89
BQ 55
NDP 36
Province-by-Province
British Columbia: CPC 19, NDP 11, LPC 6
Alberta: CPC 28
Saskatchewan: CPC 13, LPC 1
Manitoba: CPC 7, LPC 4, NDP 3
North: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
Ontario: CPC 45, LPC 44, NDP 17
Québec: BQ 55, LPC 14, CPC 6
New Brunswick: CPC 5, LPC 4, NDP 1
PEI: LPC 4
Nova Scotia: LPC 5, CPC 4, NDP 2
Newfoundland and Labrador: LPC 6, NDP 1
Riding -by- Riding
Seat Projection - May 3
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3 comments:
Thank you for biting the bullet.
While polling is less than a fine science at times and I appreciate your efforts I must call shenanigans on Simcoe-Grey. While your distribution curb might have accounted for normal activity, there's no way any Conservative, Guergis or not, is running away with 48.68% this time. Likewise you have the NDP actually losing votes (presumabely to the Greens). While the Conservatives may not be out, remarkably, the opposition will benefit from some vote parking at the very least.
I agree the Tories aren't running away with Simcoe-Grey. I don't put my finger on the scales with these projections. I trust my system. Therefore, this is just a contrast to what's actually going on in the riding with the Guergis scandal. The Greens are very strong in that part of the province and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they beat out the NDP in the next election.
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