Future Ridings by Party

As requested here is the party-by-party breakdown for the regions getting new seats under the Tory redistribution plan. What I've done is worked out what percentage of the extra voters in each region went to each party in the last election. This is different from the regional results as the smaller ridings have basically no impact. You only get credit for votes in ridings with over 108,000 residents because it is these people that will be moved into the new ridings. Elections Canada tends to prefer to keep existing ridings as is whenever possible. I will list the region following by the percentage of votes anticipated for each party in the new ridings, followed finally by my estimate of what those percentages mean in seats.

Alberta:

Calgary (2 seats): CPC 62.5%, LPC 15.7%, GPC 10.2%, NDP 8.3%
RESULT: CPC 2
Edmonton (2 seats): CPC 58.9%, LPC 15.1%, NDP 15.1%, GPC 7.5%
RESULT: CPC 2
Rural Alberta (1 seat): CPC 72.2%, NDP 12.7%, GPC 8.9%, LPC 5.1%
RESULT: CPC 1

British Columbia:

Lower Mainland (2 seats): CPC 50.5%, NDP 22.3%, LPC 19.1%, GPC 6.9%
RESULT: CPC 2
Vancouver (3 seats): CPC 39.5%, LPC 27.9%, NDP 21.9%, GPC 10%
RESULT: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
Vancouver Island (2 seats): CPC 39.7%, NDP 31.8%, LPC 17.9%, GPC 9.9%
RESULT: CPC 1, NDP 1

Ontario:

East (3 seats): CPC 49.2%, LPC 28.6,% NDP 13.1%, GPC 9.1%
RESULT: CPC 2, LPC 1
905/Golden Horseshoe (10 seats): CPC 40.3%, LPC 37.6%, NDP 14.5%, GPC 6.5%
RESULT: CPC 5, LPC 5
Southwest (3 seats): CPC 40%, LPC 26.1%, NDP 20.7%, GPC 9.1%
RESULT: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
Toronto (2 seats): LPC 49.7%, CPC 29.3%, NDP 13.9, GPC 6.5
RESULT: LPC 2

This gives us national increasese as follows based on the 2008 election:

CPC 17, LPC 10, NDP 3