Friday, April 09, 2010

Future Riding Breakdown

In order to understand what impact the proposed new ridings would have on the parliament of Canada, we need to know where the seats are going to be. A regional breakdown of where the seats are going helps. Thus, I've calculated out which regions (these are the regions that I've lifted for my projections) have earned new seats. First in Alberta which is expected to jump from 28 to 33:

Current: 8
Proposed: 10

Current: 8
Proposed: 10

Current: 12
Proposed: 13

British Columbia which is proposed to go from 36 to 43 seats breaks down as follows:

Current: 10
Proposed: 10

Lower Mainland:
Current: 7
Proposed: 9

Current: 13
Proposed: 16

Vancouver Island:
Current: 6
Proposed: 8

Ontario is much more complicated because of Northern Ontario. On a pure rep by pop basis Northern Ontario should lose about 3.5 of its current 11 seats (I include Parry Sound-Muskoka in the 11). Obviously, that's unlikely to happen as Northern Ontario has been consistently over represented for years. So if we take Northern Ontario at 11 seats we get the following breakdown for the new 124 seats:

Current: 15
Proposed: 18

Golden Horseshoe/905
Current: 34
Proposed: 44

Current: 11
Proposed: 11

Current: 24
Proposed: 27

Current: 22
Proposed: 24

If Northern Ontario were to lose 3 seats, the gainers would be the Golden Horseshoe/905 (2) and Southwestern (1).


CanadianSense said...

Based on your prediction what would be breakdonw by party?

Aaron Ginsberg said...

Working on that...

CanadianSense said...

Thanks, how is the local Mayor race going?

I am not tuned in, Rossi leading?

Is the public engaged, paying attention?

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