Thursday, February 04, 2010

Projection Update: Plenty of Polls Edition

I do my polling aggregate based on all polls in the last thirty days. There have been 11 polls in the last thirty days surveying more than 21,000 people. While the stats people will tell you that you only need so many for a representative sample, I like large samples. Call it a weakness. At any rate, there's lots of different polls taken into this projection, hopefully leading to a more accurate projection, especially considering that I use regionals in my projection. I'll give you the popular vote percentages for the parties in brackets (no regional percentages for the North). I give you percentages to two decimal places not because it's accurate to two decimal places, but because that's what the projections are based off of. If the implied accuracy bothers you, round up and forget about it. Without further ado the numbers:

National Picture:

CPC 117 (31.76%)
LPC 107 (30.73%)
BQ 52 (9.26)
NDP 32 (15.77)
GPC 0 (10.37)

Province by Province:

BC: CPC 18 (33.15%), NDP 11 (23.98%), LPC 7 (26.27%), GPC 0 (14.07%)
AB: CPC 28 (52.88%), LPC 0 (19.18%), GPC 0 (12.41%), NDP 0 (10.71%)
SK: CPC 13 (47.44%), LPC 1 (18.48%), NDP 0 (24.43%), GPC 0 (6.45%)
MB: CPC 7 (42.85%), LPC 4 (22.44%), NDP 3 (24.48%), GPC 0 (8.97%)
NORTH: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1, GPC 0
ON: LPC 55 (38.45%), CPC 38 (33.65%), NDP 13 (14.82%), GPC 0 (11.16%)
QC: BQ 52 (37.42%), LPC 17 (26.56%), CPC 6 (16.01%), NDP 0 (10.39%), GPC 0 (7.92%)
NB: LPC 6 (35.8%), CPC 3 (35.42%), NDP 1 (20.81%), GPC 0 (7.35%)
NS: LPC 6 (32.87%), CPC 3 (27.99%), NDP 2 (28.17%), GPC 0 (8.62%)
PE: LPC 4 (47.02%), CPC 0 (33.37%), NDP 0 (10.28%), GPC 0 (7.98%)
NL: LPC 6 (42.19%), NDP 1 (20.45%), CPC 0 (31.17%), GPC 0 (2.56%)

Riding by Riding:

Projection Update - February 4th

1 comment:

CanadianSense said...

Thanks again for your effort.

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