2009 Projections

So, we have a new year. For whatever that is worth. So having done enough to honour the backward looking head of Janus, the Roman deity whose name graces this month, let's look forward to the year ahead. What can we expect?

• The war in Gaza will not end before Obama is innaugurated. I expect the Israelis would like this thing to end before January 20th. I don't see it at this point. If they don't want a repeat of Lebanon 2006, they will need more time to finish their gruesome task.
• The Liberals will support Harper's budget. Flaherty has started throwing up test balloons already. The Tories want this thing to pass and new interim leader or not, the Liberals are still broke. Also, it is fairly easy for Czar Michael the Grit to claim that the Canadian economy needs the money too much for partisanship to get in the way.
  
• We will have yet another election. It won't be on the budget, but the last fall campaign was so much fun, why not do it again? Seriously, this would make four elections in five years. That's crazy. We need one of those frequent customers things from Elections Canada... have four elections and the fifth one's free!
• John Tory will survive as PC leader. All evidence is against this. I'm probably wrong. But my gut tells me that unless the Tories throw him under the bus and run him over repeatedly, he will be the leader of the PC's come 2011.
• Andrea Horwath will be elected leader of the Ontario NDP. Once again, I'm probably money. Smart money is on my MPP Peter Tabuns. However, I have to think that Tabuns and Prue are going after too many of the same people. They represent neighbouring ridings in Eastern Toronto and while Prue is considered more centrist and Tabuns more environmentalist, they will have to deal with anti-Toronto sentiment from outside the big smoke. A leader from Hamilton would make a lot of sense for the Ontario NDP, particularly if they want to make manufacturing their issue in 2011.
• Team Canada will leave John Tavares off their 2010 Olympic Men's Hockey Team. I won't say whether or not this will be a good idea or not (see Crosby, 2006 for an example of a bad decision). However, with the camp being in August before Tavares plays a game in the NHL, he will be passed over when the decision is made in the fall. At some point I'm going to put together my picks for the 2010 roster.
  
• Nothing significant or helpful will come of the climate change talks in Copenhagen.
• Gordon Campbell will be re-elected in British Columbia. Carbon tax or no carbon tax. I just can't see the NDP pulling it off.
  
• STV will fail by a wider margin than it did last time around. This may be wishful thinking on my part.
• Gordon Brown will not be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31st.
• A pro-Russian candidate will be elected President in Ukraine. A lot of these projections are not things I want, but things I think are likely. This would be one of them.
• Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud will win a narrow victory in Israel. The coalition will be Likud-Kadima.
• It will be months more before Belgians find a Prime Minister who can last.

So, nobody check this post twelve months from now, okay?