Monday, December 04, 2006

Aftermath

The Globe has a poll out this morning showing the Liberals up six points on the Tories. This poll means absolutely nothing. Still, it is better to be six points ahead then six points behind. As expected Dion has raised strong emotions in Quebec. The good news is most of them are positive. Only 29% of Quebeckers are firmly against his rise to leadership. That could be seen as the Bloc core that is never going to vote Liberal anyway. The Liberal surge appears to be due to weakness not in the Conservatives but in the NDP and the Greens. The six point Liberal gain came at the expense of the NDP (3%) and the Greens (2%). I view this as pro-environment Liberals coming back to the flock or maybe Liberals worried about an Ignatieff victory showing their relief. Either way its nice to see the support back in the Liberal camp.

This poll does show a big problem for Elizabeth May. The Conservatives may be thrilled with Dion's victory, the Greens must be devastated. Last week, they were riding high. Over 20% of the electorate in London North Centre voted Green. Now, they are faced with a greened Liberal party. This is a disaster for the Greens. It is great news for Liberals. This is how Dion can hope to break into the Conservative base out west. The Greens received a higher percentage in Alberta than in any other province in the country. These are people who were a) fed up with government corruption and looking for a fresh face or b) environmentalists. If Dion can prove to people that the Liberal Party is renewed he can capture both of these constituencies and possibly do some damage out West. He could do even more damage if Kennedy decides to move back out there and run. I don't believe in parachute candidates but if Kennedy wants to move out to Edmonton, I would strongly urge him to find a riding there to run in during the next election. Kennedy and Bob Rae happen to want the same riding: Parkdale-High Park. I believe either of them would defeat Peggy Nash. Unless Bob wants to try to take out Layton in Toronto-Danforth (the riding he represented last time he was in Ottawa) I'd advise Kennedy to let Rae have Parkdale, move out West and run from there. All of this is of course contingent on Sam Bulte (the MP for Parkdale who lost in the last election) not wanting another kick at the can.

Finally, isn't it nice to be able to oppose Stephen Harper with all our energy?

1 comment:

Radical Centrist said...

Only 29% of Quebeckers are firmly against his rise to leadership. That could be seen as the Bloc core that is never going to vote Liberal anyway.

Er... no, actually. The nationalists in Quebec are overjoyed with Dion's victory. According to Bernard Landry, Quebec is now one step closer to independence. You should read the comments on Quebec forums - it's pretty ugly.

I'd say the 29% are actually hardcore federalists in Quebec.

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