Monday, November 05, 2012

Prediction Time

For posterity, my state-by-state predictions for Tuesday night:

Alabama (9 EV):  The deep south never warmed up to Barack Obama.  It will enthusiastically support Mitt Romney on Tuesday.
Romney 9, Obama 0

Alaska (3 EV): Out of the spotlight after a crazy 2008 where Sarah Palin was only part of three ring circus, Alaska remains firmly Republican.
Romney 12, Obama 0

Arizona (11 EV):  There's a demographic case for Arizona being competitive in the near future.  Obama may have been able to make that happen in a stronger economy.  As it is, Romney wins comfortably.
Romney 23, Obama 0

Arkansas (6 EV):  Bill Clinton has been a huge part of Obama's late push.  He isn't spending a lot of effort on his home state of Arkansas which hasn't supported a Democrat for President since he left office.  No change here.
Romney 29, Obama 0

California (55 EV):  California has produced two Republican presidents in the last 50 years.   The polls close at 11 PM EST in California, Obama will be declared the winner there at 11:01 PM EST.
Obama 55, Romney 29

Colorado (9 EV):  Generally speaking I think the Obama ground game is going to be a huge positive for him.  The early voting in Colorado tells me that the Evangelical churches and the rest of the Romney ground forces are equal to the task.  The polls call it a toss up and we might not actually knows who wins on Tuesday but I'm giving it to Romney.
Obama 55, Romney 38

Connecticut (7 EV):  Connecticut is the first of the Sandy effected states on this list.  Barring a major poll problem, Obama wins here easily.
Obama 62, Romney 38

Delaware (3 EV):  Corporations have most of the legal rights of people.  Voting isn't among them.  Mitt Romney wishes they could so that all his corporate friends could make Delaware competitive.  Biden's state stays blue.
Obama 65, Romney 38

District of Columbia (3 EV):  The District may be central to American politics but it's also the left edge of American Politics.  Obama by some ridiculous number.
Obama 68, Romney 38

Florida (29 EV): This will be close, but then again Florida usually is.  I don't really know why I think Romney is going to win there.  I just do. Rubio's brought some of the Cubans who voted for Obama back into the Republican fold?  Jeb Bush needs to deliver to set up 2016?  The economy is horrible?  Pick a reason.
Obama 68, Romney 67

Georgia (16 EV):  Georgia may be coming into the political centre but not in this election.
Romney 83, Obama 68

Hawaii (4 EV):  Hawaii like three things politically: Democrats, incumbents and their native son, Barack Obama.  Oh also for some reason, Spam.  Although I'm not sure that's political.
Romney 83, Obama 72

Idaho (4 EV): An excuse to talk about the Mormon vote! Idaho's usually insanely large Republican majority will be made stronger by having a Mormon candidate on the ballot.
Romney 87, Obama 72

Illinois (20 EV):  There's less excitement in Chicago this year but they still love Obama.
Obama 92, Romney 87

Indiana (11 EV):  The strangest thing politically about 2008 was Obama carrying Indiana.  No repeat this year.
Romney 98, Obama 92

Iowa (6 EV):  The Hawkeye state isn't the most obvious of states to support Obama.  It's largely white and rural with no city larger than Des Moines.  Still it will continue its support of the President.
Romney 98, Obama 98

Kansas (6 EV):  Former Governor and current Obama cabinet member Kathleen Sibelius may be an unfortunate political casualty of Obamacare which is too bad because she has all of the political talent to become President.  Maybe if she's the Democratic nominee in four years Kansas is competitive.  Until then there's still something the matter with Kansas.
Romney 104, Obama 98

Kentucky (8 EV): The Democrats seemed to be on the verge of something in Kentucky when they almost knocked off Mitch McConnell.  Since then Kentucky elected Rand Paul to the senate.
Romney 112, Obama 98

Louisiana (8 EV):  Louisiana may be the first state in American history to have its political culture changed by a storm.  The African-American population never really came back in full and Louisiana is now slightly further to the political right.
Romney 120, Obama 98

Maine (4 EV): You will hear for about the first two hours of Tuesday night about the fact that Maine splits its electoral votes and the 1st Congressional District is competitive. Then around 9:00 or 9:30 all 4 electoral votes will go to Obama.  You heard it here first.
Romney 120, Obama 102

Maryland (10 EV):  The Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs this year.  It was a huge shock.  There's no huge shock here on Tuesday night politically: Obama by a wide margin.
Romney 120, Obama 112

Massachusetts (11 EV):  Everyone made a huge deal about Al Gore losing Tennessee in 2000.  No one is talking about how badly Romney is losing his home state this year.  Down ballot, a great microcosm of the political debate in the United States is happening between Tea Party darling Sen. Scott Brown and liberal darling Elizabeth Warren.  It may also decide the balance in the Senate.
Obama 123, Romney 120

Michigan (16 EV): Can't anyone just be from one state anymore?  Seriously though, I think the Obama campaign get the African-American vote out in Detroit and if they do that they win.  Plus, you have to be of a certain age to remember the days of George Romney in Michigan.
Obama 139, Romney 120

Minnesota (10 EV): There are whispers in Minnesota that Michelle Bachmann may be in trouble.  Late outside money coming in to her re-election campaign. That's probably more intriguing than how this state votes for President.  It will be closer than '08 but still comfortable for Obama.
Obama 149, Romney 120

Mississippi (6 EV):  There are fewer states more conservative than Mississippi.  Expect a Romney landslide.
Obama 149, Romney 126

Missouri (10 EV):  I'm not really sure why Missouri stopped being a bell-weather and started voting reliably Republican.  I do know that Obama lost narrowly here in '08 with a stronger wind at his back.  Romney wins.  Missouri may prove to be a disappointment for the GOP if Todd Aikin fails to unseat Claire McCaskill.  Take comfort Mr. Aikin, if you lose on Tuesday it's just part of God's plan.
Obama 149, Romney 136

Montana (3 EV):  There's this sneaky Democratic streak to Montana.  It's not sneaky enough to give Obama a win here though. If you want a deep dark horse for 2016 look at Gov Brian Schweitzer (D).
Obama 149, Romney 139

Nebraska (5 EV): Nebraska was so aghast about giving an electoral vote to Barack Obama 4 years ago, they tried to amend the rules.  As far as I can tell, they didn't actually manage to do that.  Or at least CNN doesn't think they did.  Omaha won't give Obama anything this time out.
Obama 149, Romney 144

Nevada (6 EV): The early turnout in Nevada has been excellent for the Democrats.  Huge turnout in Clark and Washoe county where the Democrats need the votes to come in.  Early voting has completely changed American presidential politics but no one talks about it.  70% of the vote in Nevada is already in and people still talk about it like it's completely up for grabs.
Obama 155, Romney 144

New Hampshire (4 EV):  There's a political philosophy argument that makes a ton of sense about Romney being a perfect fit politically in New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Romney elections aren't just about political philosophy.
Obama 159, Romney 144

New Jersey (14 EV):  All of America's (and the world's) hearts are with the people of New Jersey and New York.  All of New Jersey's electoral votes are with Barack Obama.
Obama 173, Romney 144

New Mexico (5 EV):  New Mexico is the canary in the coal mine for the Republican party and Hispanics.  Unfortunately for the future of the GOP, the canary's been dead for a few years now and nobody seems to notice.
Obama 178, Romney 144

New York (29 EV): Staten Island is traditionally a Republican bastion in Democratic New York.  If the devastation depresses turnout there, expect a larger margin for Obama statewide.
Obama 207, Romney 144

North Carolina (15 EV):  Call it a huge hunch.  The late polls seem to be trending the President's way.  The early vote is up from 2008 levels.  Picking Colorado and Florida for Romney and North Carolina for Obama may make some statisticians heads explode but that's what I keep thinking so I'm going with it.  I'm probably dead wrong.
Obama 222, Romney 144

North Dakota (3 EV): North Dakota probably upset about the NHL lockout.  They're also not thrilled with the President.  Obama might beat Bettman here, not Romney.
Obama 222, Romney 147

Ohio (18 EV):  I know the Governor is guaranteeing victory for Romney.  The governor is wrong.  Too many votes already cast in Cleveland and Columbus for Romney to pull this out.
Obama 240, Romney 147

Oklahoma (7 EV): Remember when I said Mississippi was the most conservative state in the union?  Here's the number 1 contender.
Obama 240, Romney 154

Oregon (7 EV): Oregonians are focused on whether or not the Oregon Ducks can finally get to a National Championship football game. They know their state is voting for Obama.
Obama 247, Romney 154

Pennsylvania (20 EV): I think the late push by Romney into Pennsylvania will be remembered as the moment the Romney campaign realized they'd lost.  Too little, too late here.  Obama holds on.
Obama 267, Romney 154

Rhode Island (4 EV):  Tiny Rhode Island pushes Obama past 270 and into a 2nd term on this alphabetical list.  It will be called very early on election night.
Obama 271, Romney 154

South Carolina (9 EV): South Carolina will vote Democratic when Strom Thurmond come back from the dead and tells them to.
Obama 271, Romney 163

South Dakota (3 EV):  Is it me or would all 4 presidents on Mt. Rushmore vote for Obama?  I know Teddy Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln were Republicans but I can't see them voting for the current incarnation of the GOP.  South Dakotans will vote happily for Mitt Romney.
Obama 271, Romney 166

Tennessee (11 EV):  The Volunteer state is surprisingly cold to Obama's ideas of public service.
Obama 271, Romney 177

Texas (38 EV): I firmly believe that within the next 20 years the Democrats will carry Texas in a Presidential election.  Maybe then Republicans will realize that they have to do outreach to Latinos.
Obama 271, Romney 215

Utah (6 EV):  It really is significant that a Mormon is the Republican candidate for President of the United States.  The largely Mormon people of Utah will enthusiastically endorse him.
Obama 271, Romney 221

Vermont (3 EV): There are Romney ads talking about Obama as a socialist.  Vermont actually elected a socialist to the Senate.
Obama 274, Romney 221

Virginia (13 EV): There were some big pre-storm early voting returns in Northern Virginia.  Early voting isn't as important in Virginia but it does tell me that the Democratic party is hard at work on the ground.  There's a tight senate race here too so turnout should be high.  I'm giving the edge to Obama.
Obama 287, Romney 221

Washington (12 EV):  The pacific northwest may be the most politically ignored part of the country this year.  At least people go to fundraisers in California, New York and Texas.  Washington is being ignored because it will vote for Obama and do so by a decent margin.
Obama 299, Romney 221

West Virgina (5 EV): Obama never did figure out coal country. No matter.
Obama 299, Romney 226

Wisconsin (10 EV): To Paul Ryan's credit, he made Wisconsin somewhat competitive.  To his discredit, Romney's gong to lose Wisconsin.
Obama 309, Romney 226

Wyoming (3 EV): Dick Cheney apparently doesn't need to be on the ballot for Wyoming to go overwhelmingly Republican.  Huh.  I guess Bush didn't pick him for his charm.
Obama 309, Romney 229

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Similar to my thoughts in result if not specifics.

I think Colorado will be blue. Latino vote still under-counted there, as in most polls. Those who get it right are the ones showing a narrow Obama lead.

Florida will be down to the wire. If Romney wins - and I still don't think that's a given - it will under the shadow of disputes over voting which have already begun and may grow worse now that election day is upon us.

Either that or Obama wins Florida outright, in part because the Republican governor has so enraged independents in the state with the polling snafus that enough independents are swayed - either consciously or not - to swing blue in the polling booth.

Jymn said...

Nice job. I think Obama will take Florida, despite the voting snafus preventing some from participating. And Ohio - you hit the nail on the head.

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