Yesterday, both presumptive nominees in the race for the White House got really lucky in their efforts to secure their respective bases. For John McCain it was the decision handed down by the California court in San Francisco, appropriately enough, striking down the ban on same-sex marriage. While I applaud the decision, I don't know that anyone is happier about this than John McCain. McCain is desperate to find a way to energize the Religious Right. Right now, the Base is sitting on their hands. They aren't giving money, they aren't getting out the vote for congressional candidates, they are retreating from politics. However, nothing energizes the Religious Right like same-sex marriage (okay abortion does, but its harder to use). McCain and his Republican colleagues can now yell until they are blue in the face about those coastal elites attacking the values of decent, hardworking Americans. Consider the base re-energized.
Obama's gift from heaven was sent through the holy land. George Bush made a not so-veiled attack on Obama, comparing his foreign policy to Nazi appeasement. Beyond the outrageousness of these remarks, Obama know has a great way to sell his foreign policy to most Americans: George Bush hates it. Nothing unifies sentiment in the Democratic party quite like their hatred of George W. Bush. Democrats are basically prepared to do anything to contradict Bush, supporting Obama should be easy. This allows Obama to cast critics of his foreign policy as supporters of Bush's hugely unpopular foreign policy. Talk about having something served up on a silver platter.
Side Note: Anyone who doubted Obama's ability to fight a media war should be convinced after this week. Clinton crushes him in West Virginia and goes out and does interviews with everyone and anyone while the iron's hot. What does Obama do? He pulls John Edwards out of a hat. Thus, the image on CNN as Wolf Blitzer interviews Clinton is a split screen of the Clinton interview with the endorsement rally and the headline "Edwards Backs Obama." Check and mate.
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Yes the timing is unfortunate but I am hopeful that given McCain is on record against a fed constitutional amendment he won't want to focus on this one too much because he is not completely on side with his base on this one. There is also a new movement of evangelicals who have expressly stated that gay marriage and abortion will not be the litmus test it once was. Also Obama is on record as not support marriage (his one fault for me) and says that it should be decided by the state. You also have Arnold saying that he will respect the court and will not support a state constitutional amendment.
So...is this potentially bad for Dems, yes. Is it as good a wedge issue as it once in 2004? Not sure yet.
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