Prediction Time

With mere hours left until the polls open nationwide south of the border it is time to get going on my state by state predictions. Here we go in alphabetical order. I might divide this into two very long posts.

Alabama (9): The Obama campaign is surging across the south. Not so much in Alabama. African- Americans may vote in record numbers but this is safe for John McCain.

Running Total: McCain 9, Obama 0

Alaska (3): Had John McCain chosen anyone else as his VP, this state would have been, like North Dakota and Montana, in play. However, if nothing else, Sarah Palin has given him her home state. Even the likely defeat of a sitting Republican Senator (convicted of corruption) and Republican Congressman (suspected of corruption) won't help Obama's fortunes here. Palin/McCain hold this red state.

Running Total: McCain 12, Obama 0

Arizona (10): The home state of John McCain was expected to be a non-contest for most of this election. Then someone decided to actually poll the place and found Obama competitive. However, competitive is not the same as winning. I expect even with Hispanics voting 2:1 for Obama, McCain will hold on.

Running Total: McCain 22, Obama 0

Arkansas (6): If somehow Obama loses this election the Clinton supporters will harp on what is expected to be a poor showing in Arkansas. While this state has no problem electing Democrats to statewide office, Obama has been unable to make a move here. Another safe state for McCain.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 0

California (55): Arnold aside, California is about as Blue as they come. McCain originally thought he could win over independents in the home state of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, but that strategy was quickly abandoned. Yes, the pollsters overrated Obama's primary support, but not by twenty points. Chalk the largest electoral prize up in the Obama column.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 55

Colorado (9): If McCain loses this election, it will be places like Colorado that cost him. This is a state that voted for Bush twice and home to one of the largest evangelical churches in the nation. However, a growing hispanic community has pushed voter registration and this state in general into the Democratic column. They picked up a senate seat here in 2006 and are poised to snag the other one this year (one of the brothers Udall). This state has been polling strongly for Obama. Also, in spite of the efforts of the evangelicals (who are the ones who traditionally use advanced voting), more Democrats than Republicans voted early this year. Will it be close? Probably. Will Obama win? Probably.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 64

Connecticut (7): In a different year, the endorsement of independent Senator Joe Lieberman in this New England state might have made McCain competitive here. Joe-mentum though is usually an overrated commodity. This state has been reliably Democratic for a while, expect it to continue. There's a reason Lieberman, who spoke at the RNC, hasn't joined the Republicans: he wants to get re-elected. Obama wins here in a walk.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 71

Delaware (3): In arguing against choosing Joe Biden, I said that it didn't give Obama any states, Delaware being one of the bluest states in the Union. The only interesting thing in Delaware is who they get to fill Biden's Senate seat if Obama wins on Tuesday. His son, Beau, the state's Attorney General is seen as a natural successor. The only problem? He's in Iraq right now fighting for his country. At any rate, Obama picks up the electoral votes.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 74

District of Columbia (3): The least competitive race on Tuesday night will be at the centre of it all. DC is famous for its absurd Democratic margins and expect it to get downright silly on Tuesday with an African-American on the ballot.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 77

Florida (27): What would a presidential election be without the annual appeal to the elderly voters of Florida? With Jews looking increasingly comfortable with Barack Hussein Obama, and a major shift expected in Cuban-American voters to the Democratic ticket, I like Obama's chances here. If I was doing this prediction in a more intelligent way (i.e. not alphabetically) I would have left Florida until a later post. It really should be a coin flip. At the end of the day I favour Obama's ground game.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 104

Georgia (15): The very fact that Georgia's electoral votes are in question shows how bad a fall it has been for the Republicans. While the huge African-American turnout is certainly a large part of the story, there should have been enough white Republicans for McCain to take this in a walk. As it is, I expect a close race. However, I just can't believe Obama can pull this off. I do expect Senator Saxby Chambliss to be pushed to a run-off here.

Running Total: McCain 43, Obama 104

Hawaii (4): One of the convenient things about the two states outside the continental United States is that they basically cancel each other out. Alaska is as red as they come. Hawaii is similarly blue. Hawaii is excited about electing their native son to the White House. Obama may see his largest margin of victory here. It is interesting to see Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) standing up for his contemporary Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK).

Running Total: McCain 43, Obama 108

Idaho (4): This is probably the reddest state in the Union. It is home to the last school Sarah Palin went to (Univ. of Idaho). There is a competitive house race here. See what competing everywhere gets you Canadian Liberals? McCain wins easily but not easily as previous Republicans.

Running Total: McCain 47, Obama 108

Illinois (21): From one of Obama's homes to another. The best party on earth may be in Chicago on Tuesday night. This state is where the Republican Party's historic collapse may have begun. Obama was the first of many Democrats to benefit from the Republicans having a lousy Senate opponent. We shall see if the NRSC finds someone to run against whoever emerges from the Democratic primary in 2010. Jesse Jackson jr. is among the contenders so you know it will be interesting.

Running Total: McCain 47, Obama 129

Indiana (11): How is this reddest of red states in play? Well, a lot of people credit the economic collapse combined with the competitive Democratic primary. Had Obama picked popular Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) as his running mate, he probably could have had this state locked up. As is, it is a definite toss-up. However, I expect Obama to fall just short as he did in the primary against Clinton.

Running Total: McCain 58, Obama 129

Iowa (7): Remember the Iowa Caucuses? The people of Iowa do. They remember that Barack Obama went around talking to them and earning their vote while McCain held 100 townhalls in New Hampshire and ignored the Hawkeye state. Combine this with McCain's less than enthusiastic support for ethanol and Obama will carry this state that voted for Bush in 2004 easily.

Running Total: McCain 58, Obama 136

Kansas (6): There is the off-chance that had Obama chosen Gov. Kathleen Sibelius (D-KS) as his running mate, he would have had a chance in his mother's birth state. As it is, this state will go to McCain in a walk.

Running Total: McCain 64, Obama 136

Kentucky (8): The primaries are usually not a reliable indicator of future success. However, Obama's abysmal showing in Kentucy is likely to be repeated on election day. McCain should win easily. More interesting is the senate race where minority leader Mitch McConnell faces the fight of his life. If McConnell loses the Democrats may get to the sixty votes they need to have fillibuster proof senate.

Running Total: McCain 72, Obama 136

Louisiana (9): Louisiana is a bit of a curiosity. If it weren't for Hurricane Katrina, there might be enough African-Americans here to make Obama competitive. However, if it weren't for Katrina, the Republican Party would probably not be in such desperate shape. All in all, I expect the recent poll that showed Obama within 3 points here was an outlier. I expect a McCain victory by 7-9 points. The only potentially vulnerable Democratic Senator is Mary Landrieu (D-LA). However it appears that she will win re-election. The only question on Tuesday will be whether or not she can avoid a run-off.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 136

Maine (4): Maine is one of two states that divides its electoral votes. Two go to the overall winner and one goes to the candidate who wins in each of its two electoral districts. There was a time, when pundits thought that Maine might be close enough (a lot of hockey moms in Maine) to actually deliver one of its electoral votes for McCain. It seems increasingly unlikely. It also seems increasingly unlikely that Tom Allen (D) will unseat moderate Republican Senator Susan Collins.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 140

Maryland (10): Although not as Democratic as DC, Maryland is a reliable blue state. With record turnout expected among African-Americans, expect Maryland to go overwhelmingly to Obama.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 150

Massachussetts (12): In spite of Gov. Deval Patrick's (D-MA) decreasing popularity in the state and the recent revelation of a Democratic state senator accepting bribes, Massachussetts will continue to be a true blue state. Will Obama match hometown Sen. Kerry's margin? Maybe not. Will it matter? Definitely not.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 162

Michigan (17): Pundits may point to John McCain's decision to pull out of Michigan as the moment when he lost the election. It isn't so much that McCain lost because he didn't campaign in Michigan so much as the fact that he couldn't win Michigan meant that the Republican ticket was sunk. This is a state that Romney probably would have put in play. With convicted Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D) off the front pages, Obama should win by a decent margin here.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 179

Minnesota (10): The GOP held its convention in the twin cities with the expectation that the northern midwest (MN, MI, WI) would be in play. They haven't been and it increasingly looks like the GOP wasted its time in the land of a thousand lakes. If Gov. Pawlenty (R-MN) was on the ticket, the outcome may have been different. As it is, this state will be called quickly on Tuesday.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 189

Mississippi (6): Mississippi is a state that will be shaped by the size of the African-American turnout. If it is as high as expected Obama may get within 10 points here (a sizeable achievement). It may also be enough to carry former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) to victory over appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R) in the special election to replace Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS).

Running Total: McCain 87, Obama 189

Missouri (11): The bellweather of bellweathers, Missouri is definitely a toss-up again this year. The question here, as it is in most swing states is whether or not Obama can actually turnout the massive crowds that have come to his rallies (100,000+ in St. Louis). If McCain loses here, it will be a very long night for the Senator from Arizona. I expect this to be one of the last states to be called on election night in spite of the fact that its polls close at 8pm. At the end of the day, I'll take McCain in a squeaker. A result which will in all likelihood make Missouri a little less bellweathery.

Running Total: McCain 98, Obama 189

Okay, by my count that's 25 + the district down, 25 to go. Good time to take a break.

Good Omens For Barack Obama

Early voting is taken fairly seriously in the states and the results that have come in are pretty favourable for the Democrat. While party registration isn't a perfect predictor of voting intention, it is a decent facsimile. While some registered Democrats will vote Republican, it is a two way street. Here's some data from two key swing states.

In North Carolina, 771,549 registered Democrats had voted early compared with only 369,109 Republicans. In other words Democrats are out puling republicans two to one in formerly red North Carolina. While the state does have more registered Democrats than Republicans the ratio should be just under 3:2 for the Dems not over 2:1. North Carolina does a great job of keeping their records up to date and you can follow it all here.

In Florida, the state makes it a little harder total votes by registration so I just chose a county at somewhat random for a spot check. Alachua county is dominated by the city of Gainesville which is itself dominated by the University of Florida. If Obama is to win on election night, he needs younger voters, particularly university voters, to vote in numbers. That appears to be happening at the home of Gatorade. In a county Kerry won by a margin of about 4:3(62,504 to 47,762), Democrats have outvoted Republicans by a margin of about 7:2 (16,984 to 4,804).

There are two big problems for McCain in these numbers. First, even if McCain is able to make up ground in the last week, 23% of North Carolinians have already voted and can't change their minds. While the number is lower in Florida (only about 15%) it still represents a major challenge. Second, on election day Barack Obama is going to have fewer votes that he has to pull with his massive ground organization. In Alachua county for instance, he already has about a quarter of John Kerry's votes from 2004. In North Carolina, over a quarter of registered Democrats have already voted which represents an astouding 50% of Kerry's 2004 total. McCain by contrast, has a lot of work to do. In Alachua, Republicans only account for 10% of Bush's total in 2004. In North Carolina, less than a fifth of Republicans have voted representing a similar amount of George W. Bush's 2004 vote. This represents a lot more work for McCain's smaller ground team.

McCain can only hope that independents are breaking overwhelmingly for him in both these cases, otherwise, he's in big trouble. Independents are, however, a small chunk of the votes already cast (roughly 15% in Alachua and 17% in North Carolina).

Ukraine Bailout

You know that the world is really screwed up when a major IMF bailout seems to come out of nowhere. I mean I heard about problems in Eastern Europe so I guess I shouldn't be totally surprised. Somehow I don't think this will be the last bailout the IMF makes before this thing is set and done.

Ideas to Fix the Liberal Party of Canada

Before I start, I encourage any Liberal who cares about the future of this party to read the Calgary Grit. I usually agree with Dan and today is no exception. Now, some ideas of my own to add to the list. Some of these are simple and no brainers, some of these are things that may not be perfectly thought out but I feel we need to be going in that general direction.

Get Volunteers to Sign Membership Forms: A lot of what's wrong with the Liberal Party is that we don't do the little things right. This is one of them. I know that there are hundreds or maybe thousands of people who helped out Liberal campaigns across the country this fall that are not members of the Liberal Party. Why? Well, in a lot of cases, nobody bothered to ask. This must change. These people are the people we need to expand our party membership and our fundraising base. Let's mandate that within six weeks of each election the riding association must hold an open meeting where it tries to sign up new members. Easy, cheap and a great way to make sure people who get involved during elections, stay involved in between elections.

Stop Asking for Money for No Apparent Reason: I don't know about you, but I've stopped opening the e-mails I get from central party. Why? I know what they say without opening them. Here's a synopsis of the e-mail: "Stephen Harper is evil. Look what he's doing now. The Liberal Party is the only party that can . Please go to liberal.ca to donate today." I like the idea of consistently going to the well for small amounts instead of going to the well for a large amount one time. However, if you make your pitch all the time, people are going to just tune you out.

Stop Trying to Con Your Members Into Giving Money: This admittedly only happened once but it offended me to no end. I get an e-mail (I bothered to open this one) saying that I had just committed on the phone to donate to the party and this is just an e-mail following up. Well, I had done no such thing. I know I did no such thing because this was in the middle of the election and I hadn't been home and awake for more than a couple of hours late at night for weeks because I was working on the campaign. Don't lie to your members. If you want money, give me a good reason to donate.

Find Our Howard Dean: If Barack Obama wins this election, a lot of the credit will belong to the chairman of the DNC, former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean. Dean is responsible for transforming the Democratic party from a regional, directionless, poor party into the national, focused, fundraising machine it is today. Dean was the first Democrat to fundraise effectively over the internet. When we elect a new leader of the Liberal Party, we will also be electing a new President of the Liberal Party. If we are to succeed, we need a President that will be able to bring the big red machine into the twenty-first century. My suggestion for the job? Paul Martin. Ok, stop laughing for a minute and think about it. The next President of the LPC will have two jobs: make us competitive in the fundraising department and rebuild moribund riding associations. I can't think of a better person for this job than Paul Martin. Martin is as good a fundraiser as this party is going to find. He knows everyone in the party and has the respect of most of them. I understand that he couldn't turn us into a grassroots, Dean/Obama style, fundraising machine during his tenure as leader. I also understand that if he was solely focused on that task, he might have more success. Martin also knows something about building riding associations. Martin was a master at building up riding associations when he was trying to become leader. He took over almost every riding association in the country. If he can take them over, he can build them up. We need someone with his gravitas to make this work. That's why Gov. Dean has been so successful. He has the name recognition and the respect of the people in the party. It doesn't have to be Martin. In fact, I doubt he'd want the job. But it should be someone with a big name, who understands grassroots politics.

Fight Everywhere: I am a firm believer in the Liberal 308 campaign that has begun. If we are to form government again, it will only be if we are competitive in every part of this country. We have conceded to many races to the Tories, NDP and Bloc. Hell, we even conceded a race to the Greens this time around. That is not acceptable. We have to build support for our party everywhere by engaging with our grassroots everywhere. It will not be an easy process, but it is doable.

We Are Not Just Another Left Wing Party: One of the things that really offends me is when Liberals make the argument that the majority of the country voted for progressive candidates. If we portray ourselves as fundamentally no different from the NDP, Greens or Bloc, why should Canadians see a difference on election day? We are not a left wing party. We are a centrist party. In fact, the only centrist party this country has. We get elected when we appeal to all Canadians, not just self-identified progressives. We are not like the NDP and Greens a party of ideology. We are simply not like the Bloc. We couldn't be less like the Bloc. We fundamentally disagree with all of these parties over core principles and ideas. Yes, we disagree with the Conservatives as well. Our disagreement with the Tories, however, should not be our defining characteristic. We are the party of small business as much as we are the party of the poor. We are the party of fiscal responsibility as much as we are the party of healthcare and childcare. It is this unification of ideals, free from restrictive ideology, that has made us so successful in the past. We must embrace that legacy if we are to succeed in the future.

We Are Not the Natural Governing Party: I want to start a swear jar for every time a Liberal claims we are the natural governing party. There is no such thing as a natural governing party. We are a centrist party. This means that a plurality of Canadians tend to agree with us philosophically. However, that does not mean we are entitled to a single vote. Everytime we tell Canadians that we are the natural governing party, we become less likely to ever govern again. We will not fix this party, unless we understand that we're never going to get elected by just hoping Canadians come back to us. We came back to power in 1993 because we had a clear and pragmatic vision for this country that Canadians could support not because it was inevitable.

I really hope that we can have a genuine discussion about renewal amid the intra-partisan bickering of a leadership race. We have a lot of work to do and we need to get started.

A Thousand Times No

There are many out there right now who think that the real problem with the Liberal Party is the method by which we choose our leader. The argument goes that it was the backroom deals on the convention floor that gave our party Stephane Dion and therefore if we eliminate convention floor, all will be right with the world. What most of these people advocate for is a one-member-one vote system. While this may sound lovely, it is in fact a recipe for disaster. The problem with one-member-one-vote systems is that they allow the candidate who can sign up a bunch of instant members the chance to win without any support from the people in the party who actually do the heavy lifting and know something about running a political party. This is, in large measure, how John Tory became the leader of the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario. You think we've got leadership issues. The system by which we elect a leader is transparent and effective. Members vote for the leadership candidate of their choice and then for the delegate candidates that they feel are most qualified to represent them at the convention. These delegates are bound to vote as they had promised on the first ballot. After that, they are free to make a decision as to who they should support. The rest of the delegates are all the candidates from the last election plus all the presidents of the local riding associations plus a few other party higher ups (senators, former cabinet ministers, premiers, executive members etc.). These people, the people who will be doing a large share (although there are plenty of hardworking Liberals who don't go to conventions) of the heavy lifting come election time, choose who will become leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. We don't just hand the crown to the person who signs up a ton of members in one riding. The system ensures that our party will elect a leader that the entire party from coast to coast to coast is comfortable with and that has the support of real Liberals not just instant Liberals.

This system is similar to the system employed in the United States (which was praised by many Canadian pundits for generating excitement about politics just a few months ago) except that our system eliminates the stupid "first in the nation primary" BS by having all of the delegate selection meetings over one weekend. We also do the entire selection process over one weekend unike most states which vote based on candidate choice and then have a state-wide convention to pick the delegates.

Side Note: Anyone thought about who the ex-officio candidate delegate for Central Nova will be? Will they be short a delegate relative to the rest of the country? Will they go back to the 2006 candidate? Or will we give the spot to the person who Liberals in Central Nova were told to vote for in the last election, Elizabeth May? Just asking.

Anyone Understand This

I mean I know the polls are looking good for Obama these days, but Clinton in Omaha? Maybe they think one of the electoral districts is up for grabs. Nebraska does split its electoral votes.

It Begins...

M. Dion has announced what has become inevitable over the last week, he will resign as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. I look forward to hearing from the field of candidates which will emerge over the next weeks and months. I will be looking for a candidate to tell me why she/he wants to be Prime Minister. What does he/she want to do as Prime Minister? In particular, I want to hear from a leader who will focus on the challenges which face Canada today and will face Canada in the future. I want to hear about how Canada can change its economy in the face of the new globalized economy. I want to hear how we are going to confront the impending demographic challenges which threaten to overwhelm our public health care system and other social welfare programs. I want to hear about how we are going to fix our immigration system to make it fairer and more effective. Finally, I still want to hear about how we are going to confront the climate crisis, only this time in a way that Canadians can support. The candidate who does this will have my support. Let the delightful dismemberment of the Liberal hopescape begin!

Cracks in EU's Green Wall

Apparently Canadians aren't the only ones who think an economic recession is a good time to implement a massive climate change plan. Members of the European Union are now objecting to making this kind of move at this time.

Post Mortem

Literally, post mortem means after death and that is a somewhat accurate description today. There are few bright spots today for Liberals. I can only think of four pick-ups if you don't count seats reclaimed after floor-crossing. We are in the wilderness folks. To add insult to injury, Jack Layton is still my member of parliament. Stéphane Dion ran a disastrous campaign. He placed a bad policy as the central plank of our platform. It was the wrong policy at the wrong time. That said, I beg my fellow Liberals to spare us the fratricidal (and sororicidal) bloodletting of a third leadership race in six years.

Toronto-Danforth Votes NDP Out

The people of Toronto-Danforth showed their displeasure with their absentee MP tonight. After Jack backed out of a debate scheduled to try to accommodate Layton's schedule, the attendees of the debate blocked an attempt to have Peter Tabuns stand in for his comrade. City-TV has the video. Jack Layton apparently has forgotten that in Toronto-Danforth, local matters.

EU Envy

There are few things I hate more than being told how great the European Union is. Doug Saunders is at it in the Saturday Globe. Saunders is using the prism of the EU-Canada trade talks to discuss the issues in dealing with Canada because of our loose federalism. Saunders marvels at the ease that Europe, a collection of 27 independent states, has in negotiating treaties. He ignores the reason for this freedom: lack of democracy. The European Union remains a fundamentally undemocratic institution. Controlled in large measure by an unelected bureaucracy in Brussels (led by President Barroso) and the heads of government of the 27 member states (currently led by President Sarkozy), the European Commission and European Council, as they are known, wield an enormous amount of power. There is also a political consensus among the major parties of the majority of EU states that European integration is both positive and essential. The irony is that fewer and fewer Europeans actually want the integration their political masters are pushing. The first round of European constitution meetings collapsed because, well, people were allowed to vote on it. The second round collapsed, in spite of efforts to prevent people from voting on it, because the Irish government couldn't get around their constitution and had to let the people vote on it. If Presidents Barroso and Sarkozy had to sell this to the electorate of certain member states, it would undoubtedly fail. It is only because the EU is so insulated from its people that it can negotiate with such impugnity. While the EU is probably a benevolent dictator most of the time, it is a dictator nonetheless. The toothless European Parliament has not changed this fact. If Mr. Saunders et al. want Canada to be more like the EU, they should realize that the cost is democracy.

Side Note: I actually really hope these talks succeed. While I don't want to be like the EU, I would like to have a more active trading relationship with our friends across the pond. In a related story the free trade conspiracy theorists had a major hole blasted through their water fear-mongering today.

21 Days Later...

Jack Layton actually shows up in his own riding! The MP for Air Canada finally touched down close to home. Three weeks. That's how long it took him to talk to voters in his own riding. Will he be back? We don't know. There is an all candidates debate scheduled in Toronto-Danforth for October 7th. Jack didn't think it worth his time to come to the last one. We'll see about this one. To track Jack's travels, please visit www.wheresjack.ca. It's time to remind Jack Layton that local matters.

Tyler Banham for Hamilton Mountain

This is brilliant.

Oh, The Joys of a Low Profile Blog

Cherniak has the Layton/9-11 Truth video I posted about a month and half ago. Now apparently, they are news. I'm glad the videos are making the rounds even if it is a month and half late.

Markets Bounce

Whenever I see a dead cat bounce like this I am reminded of the words of the American poet Ogden Nash:

"Man is a victim of dope/in the incurable form of hope."

In Other News...

We're all screwed. I know that most politically minded folk north of the 49th are consumed by the election. However, even I have noticed in between canvasses that the world's economy is circling the drain. Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Green or Bloc this economy is going south and fast. The US government's completely inconsistent policy on bailouts isn't helping either.

Take Heart

I know that there are a lot of Liberals out there who are pulling their hair out right now. They see the poll numbers and they start to panic. Let's all take a deep breath. Remember the national campaign for 99% of us, is beyond our control. We have to have faith that they will start turning things around. We need to stop panicking, stop complaining, and start working our butts off. I encourage everyone to go into your local candidates office in the coming days and help out. The Liberal Party is as strong as we make it. Go out and win this election. You can make a difference.

If any of you are in Toronto and are looking for a campaign to help out on. Look no further. Jack Layton is ignoring his home riding of Toronto-Danforth. Andrew Lang and the Liberal team in Toronto-Danforth are working hard to make Jack pay for this mistake. If you want to help please send us an e-mail at andrew@andrewlang.ca, give us a call at (416) 463-8378 or drop by our office at 746 Danforth Avenue, just east of Pape Station. Together we can paint the Danforth red.

Lang Slams Layton Over Debate Decision

From the Andrew Lang for Toronto-Danforth Campaign:

LAYTON’S OPPOSITION SHUTS GREEN PARTY OUT OF DEBATE
Toronto-Danforth Liberal Candidate Andrew Lang calls 
Layton’s decision disappointing

September 8, 2008 – Toronto-Danforth Member of Parliament Jack Layton denied Elizabeth May and the Green Party the opportunity to participate in the televised leader’s debate today, according to local Liberal candidate Andrew Lang.

“Jack Layton spends a lot of time talking about giving a voice to people who don’t have one,” said Lang. “And so I find his decision to silence Elizabeth May disappointing, although not altogether surprising. Jack Layton showed the same disregard for debate and dialogue when he refused to participate in a local debate in this riding in the last election.”

Recent polls put Green Party support across the country around 10%, and in by-elections held in early 2008, the Green Party finished neck-and-neck with the NDP in several ridings, including Willowdale, where the Greens finished ahead of the New Democratic candidate.

The NDP, along with the Conservatives and the Bloc, opposed May’s inclusion in the October 2 debate, announced today. The Liberal Party supported her participation.

- 30 -

For more information:
Andrew Lang Campaign
media@andrewlang.ca

The Message Track We're Not On

As Campaign 2008 kicks off, I expect my blogging to be light. My time will be spent helping to elect Andrew Lang as the next Member of Parliament for the great riding of Toronto-Danforth. However, I do want to throw an idea out into the blogosphere. Stephane Dion is saying that he wants the opportunity during this campaign to define himself after enduring two years of Conservative attacks. His tactic seems to be to portray himself as a lean green fighting machine. All well and good, but I think we can do better. Stephane Dion is a Canadian hero and we should not be afraid to remind voters of his heroism.

Stephen Harper rightly says that we are facing turbulent times ahead. I would argue that if you want an example of leadership in crisis, look no further than Stephane Dion. When our country faced, perhaps, its greatest crisis during the 1995 Referendum and its aftermath, M. Dion showed extraordinary courage and heroism. During the referendum, M. Dion went toe to toe with Lucien Bouchard and held his own. Something all the pundits said couldn't be done. After the referendum, Stephane Dion ensured that our country would never again face the issue of national unity without clear rules and regulations. M. Dion is a hero. He put his personal reputation, his name, on the line for his country. It is that Stephane Dion that will be a great Prime Minister. We can talk policy until we're hoarse and get nowhere. Or we can talk about the character of the man who we believe should be Prime Minister.

The Front Bench Empties

The Conservatives are facing a slew of retirements as we enter into a federal election. I get Emerson and Hearn. They're older and they've got battles for re-election. Well a battle for Hearn with Harper's unpopularity on the Rock, an impossible dream for Emerson. However, Solberg is a bit of a head scratcher. Apparently, he's got a job offer he just couldn't turn down, which was my suspicion when I heard the news. I mean the man is turning fifty in a couple of weeks making him a spring chicken by parliamentary standards. He's in one of the safest ridings in the country where he is personally extraordinarily popular. I have to think that Solberg has decided to cash in and make some money. Frankly, I don't blame him. The man got elected at 35, he's served his country for fifteen years, he's entitled to want to make a little more money and spend some time at home. The only reason it surprises me is that I would have put him on a short list to replace Stephen Harper. Then again, maybe he's going into the private sector to build up a war chest for a future leadership race, who knows. I do know that Harper just lost two of the better members of his "team" in Solberg and Emerson.