Alma Mater Blues

Queen's University made a splash this week by canceling the annual homecoming football game. The football game has, in recent years, been a cause for celebration among Ontario university students culminating in the now infamous Aberdeen Street party. The party is unsanctioned and illegal. The city of Kingston, after a car was flipped and burnt in 2005, panicked and called in the cavalry (in the form of police from all over the province). Having failed to actually stop the celebration in the subsequent years, the pressure has been on the administration at Queen's to do something. So they did.

While I sympathize with the administration's position as being somewhere between a rock and a hard place. As someone who was on Aberdeen Street at various points in his university career, I feel I should share my thoughts. I think perspective is necessary. I think a question that I don't think has ever been addressed is why Aberdeen became what it became. Here's what I think happened.

1. Kingston is not exactly replete with bars. When Alumni and others come in for a party, what bars there are fill up pretty quickly. This leaves the 16,000 or so university students who have a work hard/play hard attitude with no legal means of showing their school spirit (read desire to get drunk as humanly possible). This led to a growth in (illegal) keggers in students' homes.
2. In 2004, the year before the car, a major kegger complete with private security was organized by one of the households on Aberdeen Street. In previous years, Aberdeen was the site of much homecoming partying due to the fact that all but one of the homes on the short street was/is occupied by students. However, most of the partying toook places in the backyards and homes of the residents, disturbing only the one family who insisted on living there (I believe the student council eventually bought the house after being turned down in previous years). Most of the homes are also large houses housing large numbers of students and provide perfect locations for house parties.
   
3. When the party's invitation list overwhelmed organizers (and the private security guy), the cops were called in to break up the sizable kegger. The street subsequently filled with slightly displeased students. A couple of these students inexcusably threw beer bottles at the departing security guy.
4. This incident led to a panic on the part of the Kingston Police for the following year's celebration (the car year). The KPD attempted to block off Aberdeen Street for the night placing officers at the four legal entrances to the street. This failed miserably as people quickly found the unfenced backyards which provide easy access to Aberdeen and quickly began partying behind the police barricade.
5. The attempts to block access to Aberdeen left the crowd in an anti-establishment mood and the now infamous flipping and burning of the car resulted. Side note: how the police missed the stolen, plateless vehicle parked conspicuously on an otherwise car free street as they drove up and down Aberdeen all day is still a mystery.
   
6. When news of the incident spread, along with pictures of thousands of students drinking in the street, the party became a destination for students accross the province. This meant that Aberdeen remained a crowded, if mostly peaceful, party in the subsequent years.

This picture is perhaps not consistent with the image of riotous students at war with an overburdened police force portrayed in the media but it is a lot closer to the truth. The problem with canceling the fall booze fest is, in a word, Facebook. A group proposing a non-administration date for homecoming already has 1300 members within a day of the administration's decision. Yes, social networking can be used for more nefarious means than political organization.

What has always frustrated me is the lack of any desire from the University or the city to organize what is needed: an open air beer festival, preferably in one of Kingston's parks or on its main drag, Princess Street. A sanctioned and licensed event where beer is sold and is in a well lit venue with bouncers from the bars or police officers checking identification to discourage underage drinking would be a huge source of revenue for whoever organized it. I don't think students come to homecoming because it's rebellious, I think they go because it is a damn good party. Legalizing it would make it more accessible to the true cause of the celebration: the alumni coming home. While the University has tried to organize alternate events (Billy Talent anyone?) they either lacked the requisite space or the ability to drink, which like it or not, is what people want to do on homecoming weekend. Instead of making money on a fabulous Princess Street Party, everyone involved will have to bite their nails and hope that the new date doesn't catch on. It is really too bad.

Bob the Chameleon

Bob Rae's shift on The Green Shift is almost comedic. You see campaign Bob said this when asked about The Green Shift when it was being attacked by Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall:

"we have to be realistic and put a price on pollution"

Contrast this with leadership candidate Bob now saying:

"Rae said the Green Shift was pursued without applying common sense, good judgment or the daily experience of ordinary people. "Politics is not about philosophy or theory," he said in an interview with Canwest News Service."

Apparently being "realistic", doesn't involve "common sense, good judgment or the daily experience of ordinary people". Now, I understand the good soldier argument. Here's the problem, Rae could have taken the route taken by his opponents saying that the policy was rejected by the voters and moved the party too far away from its centrist roots. Valid criticisms that one can make given the election results without sounding like a hypocrite. Instead Mr. Rae is saying "don't believe anything I said on the campaign trail, I was just doing the bidding of M. Dion." Why should we believe you now Bob?

Discrimination is Discrimination

I have to agree with my friend Will Norman on this one. I thought we were past the point where we passed laws against segments of the population based on negative stereotypes. I know proponents will argue that young adults are more likely to be involved in accidents. I don't care. Would it be okay if the law discriminated based on race? On gender? I didn't think so. Ageism may not be as loaded or destructive as racism or sexism but it is still discrimination. I don't drive (whole downtown Toronto/ easy access to subway thing) and I am just over the age affected by this law. I still find it abhorrent. Shame, Dalton McGuinty, shame.

CG for LeBlanc

I always feel a little better about myself when Dan Arnold agrees with me on something. There's a reason the Calgary Grit is the premier Liberal blog.

Iggy, Rae Squabble; Grassroots Lose

Well the Leadership Race is off to an ominous start. Here's the story. The organizers of a debate in Mississauga get all parties to agree to participate. They say the media will be invited only if all three candidates agree. Rae and LeBlanc say yes, Iggy says no. Organizers shut out media. Rae goes to Mississauga but refuses to debate. Let's break this down one point at a time. Starting with the Iggy contention that there are times to talk to the public and times "for family."

I understand that certain occasions are just for the party faithful. When discussing confidential information such as financial data or campaign strategy, I couldn't agree more: keep the media out. However, by the reports that have come out of the meeting (you should know about blogging, Mr. Ignatieff) there was nothing confidential or private about the forum. Nothing that would be particularly bad for the media to hear. Also, since the event (by my understanding) was open to the public as long as they paid a fee, what was to stop the media from coming in and taking notes? Notwithstanding all that, this was not exactly a well advertised event. Large parts of the family didn't get the invitation. Most of the family can't just zip over to Mississauga for a debate. It is useful for Liberals outside the GTA (yes they do exist Mr. Ignatieff) to be able to watch their prospective leaders debate without having to be in the city where the debate is taking place. We are early on in this race and all candidates should be interested in having their views heard by all Liberals not just the small group who went out to Mississauga this afternoon. Mr. Ignatieff, once again I have to quote Joe Biden, "that's not change, that's more of the same."

Mr. Rae appears to have regressed to his NDP roots here. Standing outside protesting is acceptable behaviour among Dippers, it doesn't fly among Liberals. If you really needed the media there to talk to Liberals you should have made that clear to the organizers at the outset. While I agree with Mr. Rae's position on the media for the reasons stated above, he did agree to the rules and should abide by them. If you want to criticize Mr. Ignatieff for his decision, do so in the forum so nicley provided to you by the LPCO. Don't punish the people who came to hear what you had to say just because Mr. Ignatieff is being stubborn.

Why is it that these so-called elder statesmen insist on acting like children?

The Delightful Dismemberment of the Liberal Hopescape Part 3

Having dealt with Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. Rae, I move on to my choice for Liberal leader: Dominic LeBlanc.

Dominic LeBlanc: Two years ago, I supported Gerard Kennedy for the leadership of the Liberal Party. I supported Mr. Kennedy because I believed that our party needed to change the way it did business. I believed that our party had gone stale. I still believe that today. We need to fundamentally change course. The voters sent us a message last month. We do not need a makeover, we need major surgery. We need a new generation of thinking, of leadership. I believe Dominic LeBlanc is the man for the job. I'll deal with the questions surrounding Mr. LeBlanc's candidacy and then elaborate on why I'm supporting him.

Critics of Mr. LeBlanc, will undoubtedly say that he is too young. This will undoubtedly be the line of attack taken by the Conservatives. However, Mr. LeBlanc is just eight years younger than Mr. Harper. More importantly he will be only four years younger than Mr. Harper was when he sought the highest office in the land in 2004. It is a simple and cheap argument to say that Mr. LeBlanc and Mr. Harper are basically the same age and that if Mr. Harper is qualified so is Mr. LeBlanc. The age requirement for the job is 35. Mr. LeBlanc is over 35. If you think he is too young, we should change the rules and up the age limit. Furthermore, he has experience. He has more parliamentary experience than Mr. Harper did in 2004 or Mr. Ignatieff does today. He has more experience on the government side of the aisle than either of his opponents do in Ottawa. If four years in the Senate is enough for Mr. Obama, than eight years in parliament should plenty for Mr. LeBlanc.

The Liberal Party needs to do something to change its image. It is seen by too many as a function of big city elites. It is seen as a party of Central Canada. What better way to change this image than to elect as leader a rural New Brunswicker. The MP for Beauséjour has the opportunity to fundamentally change the map. He has the ability to speak to all Canadians, something we have not been able to do in a long time. We can't be afraid to talk to someone because they don't live in a condominium.

I've had the opportunity to hear Mr. LeBlanc speak about why he's running this job. Mr. LeBlanc outlines some of his vision here. I was impressed by Mr. LeBlanc's frankness when discussing the problems of the Liberal Party. Mr. Rae and Mr. Ignatieff seem to believe that with a coat of paint and some elbow grease we can become what we once were. Mr. LeBlanc understands the depth of the challenge for this party. As I've said before, I think it will take more than a leader to fix the structural problems of the Liberal Party. However, I believe M. LeBlanc will be the person to point us in the right direction.

I also believe that he is electable. Mr. LeBlanc is the excellent of combination of experience and a blank slate. His eight years in parliament, including time as parliamentary secretary of foreign affairs, gives him the gravitas and depth of understanding necessary for the job. He also does not have open wounds for his opponents to pick at. He is a Francophone who did his undergraduate work at the University of Toronto and is as comfortable in English as he is in French. He has talked about bringing the party back to the centre. Back to where we can be elected. On the economy, I believe Mr. LeBlanc has an excellent understanding of the global nature of the economic challenge and of the global potential which Canada has. I believe he understands how to make this party competitive everwhere. I also believe thta he has the judgment and the intelligence to be Prime Minister.

There are those who will say that I am wasting time on Mr. LeBlanc, that he can't win. I am not so old and cynical to believe that you shouldn't fight for what you believe in just because the odds are long. We have just witnessed the election of an African-American President. I think this is the time for long odds. It is the time to stand by the courage of your convictions. I believe in Mr. LeBlanc and I will work for his election.

The Delightful Dismemberment of the Liberal Hopescape Part 2

Having discussed Mr. Ignatieff below I move on to Mr. Rae.

Bob Rae: The former Premier of Ontario wants to lead again. Like Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. Rae is relying on a coalition he built last time around to be his base of support this time around. It is an impressive coalition. Mr. Rae is a man with a long and distinguished career to support his claim to this office. He has spent his life in the service of this country, and for that he should be honoured and respected. However, he is not applying for just any job, this is a job where the selection committee has 32 million members. This is Mr. Rae's problem. I do not for a second doubt Mr. Rae's ability to be Prime Minister. There has perhaps never been a candidate more qualified, in terms of resume than Mr. Rae. He has a wealth of experience both in Ottawa and at Queen's Park. He has penned important reports. He is a statesman. Win or lose, he will ever be thus. However, this is not enough.

I do not believe that Mr. Rae can be elected. Mr. Rae and his supporters will make the argument that he was a victim of circumstance when he was Premier of Ontario. The world economy did get pulled out from under his feet. However, he did not, in the judgment of the people of Ontario manage the economy well. As we face another economic crisis, one has to question the timeliness of Mr. Rae's decision. There is simply no evidence that the people of Ontario, outside of downtown Toronto share Mr. Rae's interpretation of history. I was too young to remember Mr. Rae's administration, that doesn't mean that I don't know my history. The Tories will not let the people of this country forget about Bob Rae's record. We don't have the money to turn this negative into a positive. It would be akin to the Tories electing Mike Harris and trying to salvage his term in office. It is not doable. We will spend the election attempting to defend a record that Liberals viciously criticized thirteen years ago.

Mr. Rae's supporters say that he is an incomparable campaigner. I don't see the evidence. Mr. Rae won one of the four elections that he was NDP leader. In his last campaign as leader of a political party his party lost 57 of its 74 seats and Mike Harris became premier of Ontario. The party which he led has still not recovered from his leadership. While Mr. Hampton deserves no credit for his term as leader, he has not much to work with. We are a party which has come dangerously close in the last five years to oblivion. The last time Mr. Rae led a party, he led it straight into oblivion. That is his legacy as a party leader. The people of Ontario have said in consecutive elections since his departure from the provincial scene that they do not want to return to the days of Bob Rae. If we are to form the next government we must do so by winning in Ontario. More specifically we have to win in the 905 and in the small cities of southern Ontario which have deserted the Liberal Party. Mr. Rae has no currency in these parts of the country. He is a danger to every seat we hold outside of the city of Toronto in the province. I can accept that Mr. Rae might be able to make inroads in British Columbia. However, even with Tory gerrymandering, the 35 seats available in BC will never match the clout of 106 seat Ontario. We cannot form a government without Ontario, and Bob Rae will never win again in Ontario.

The Delightful Dismemberment of the Liberal Hopescape Part 1

I have been reticent to comment on the Liberal leadership. It is not that I don't have a horse in the race, I do and I will explain my choice in this series of blog posts. However, the rhetoric that is surrounding this race in the blogosphere is ridiculous. Valid criticisms of leadership candidates have been decried as disloyal to the party or unfair. There are valid reasons for supporting any of the three hopefuls for leadership. There are also valid criticisms to be made of all three candidates. One of the lessons that we should have learned from M. Dion's tenure, is that we must be prepared to counter the Tory spin that is going to come our way. Given our limited resources, there is only so much spin we can counter. Without any further ado, my thoughts on the leadership candidates. This post will focus on Mr. Ignatieff. My posts on Mr. Rae and Mr. Leblanc will follow shortly. I am dividing this so that this post isn't ridiculously long.

Michael Ignatieff: Iggy, as he is known, is at it again. The American flag appears to have mostly disappeared from around his shoulders and with the war in Iraq slightly less of a bloody disaster than it was two years ago, Mr. Ignatieff is hoping that he can waltz into Strornoway without so much as a fight. I am not buying the Iggy spin that he is somehow an inevitable leader. We have no way of knowing how much support a given candidate has until the vote of the party membership in March. If you recall last time around Mr. Ignatieff's supporters thought they were going to come out super weekend with 40% of the delegates. They emerged with less than 30% and didn't reach 40% until the final ballot. Ask Hillary Clinton how inevitability worked out for her. There is a race to run and a decision to be made. An examination of each of the candidates is required. First the positives.

Mr. Ignatieff is a man of significant intelligence. He has studied the world for his entire life and would be comfortable governing in a globalized world. He has assembled an impressive team behind him. He has done an admirable job in the thankless task of opposition. He certainly knows the value of an attacking soundbite and under his leadership, the party would likely do well in question period. However, this is not enough.

I simply do not trust Mr. Ignatieff's judgment. On the issue of foreign policy, the issue that he is supposed to be most familiar he made a blunder of epic proportions two years ago and one that simply cannot be ignored. His contradictory statements on the bombing in Qana showed a man without political tact. He managed to offend both Muslims and Jews not by taking a classically Liberal position but by attempting to take two contradictory extreme positions. There are a lot of reasons why Jews have begun to leave the Liberal party. The Conservatives certainly deserve some credit. However, when Mr. Ignatieff accused Israel of war crimes in the middle of the last leadership it confirmed for many people of my faith what they already erroneously believed: the Liberal Party is anti-Israel. It is a myth. We have been a party that is pro-peace, an honest broker. What the Qana crisis demonstrates is Mr. Ignatieff's inability to think through, politically, his words. As an academic, which is what Mr. Ignatieff has been most of his life, his comments on Qana were fairly mundane, even reconcilable. As a politician, they were disastrous.

The lack of judgment continues today. Mr. Ignatieff has called for a policy conference after the leadership convention. This is unbelievably stupid. There will be of course a policy conference in Vancouver concurrent with the leadership convention. It will be the culmination of two years of policy efforts made by local and provincial Liberal associations. If Mr. Ignatieff wants ideas for his platform, he should take from that forum and encourage his supporters to dedicate some of their seemingless boundless energy for the policy proces as it already exists. Not only would a second policy conference be redundant it would be expensive and divisive. We are not a rich party as we once were. We cannot afford to be holding superfluous conferences when we should be worried about fundraising and building our party in parts of the country where it has fallen off the map. We also are a party with wide ranging views. There are few issues where Liberals actually agree. That is why all three leadership candidates have been decidedly vague in their platforms. We are not a party with a uniting ideology and as such we often have legitimate disagreements over policy. This wouldn't change after the leadership. In fact, it would be an excellent forum for rival camps to continue the bloodletting of leadership. It is the last thing the party needs.

Finally, we must consider what the optics will be, if we elect Mr. Ignatieff. The voters say to us we don't want an academic, with no political judgment who supports a carbon tax and what do we give them? An academic, with no political judgment who supported a carbon tax. I have heard the argument that all three men are learned and therefore academics. This misses the point. Mr. Rae and Mr. Leblanc are politicians. They have spent the majority of their professional lives in politics, either elected or in the backroom. Mr. Ignatieff was, for most of his career, an academic. As was M. Dion. To quote Joe Biden "That's not change, that's more of the same."

Aariak Elected

Nunavut has elected its second premier in history. Eva Aariak defeated incumbent Paul Okalik at the leadership forum yesterday. She becomes fifth woman to hold the title of premier in this country and the sixth first minister. With the possibility of Pauline Marois being elected in Quebec, we could have two female first ministers at the next first minister's meeting. Of note, Aariak is the only woman elected by the voters in the recent election to the legislative assembly. However, in that male dominated legislature she was elected premier. You don't necessarily need that magical twenty percent number to see women rising to the top.

Three to Tango?

It increasingly looks like a three way race for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. I will, in due time, give my opinion on this race. I cannot say that I am surprised that Gerard Kennedy, John Manley and Frank McKenna decided against running. I sometimes wonder if the media actually talks to anyone when they run their stories or if they just kind of look at a list of prominent Liberals and go from there. Interesting that there is no talk this time about these being the B-list candidates like there was in '06. I didn't think it was a B-List in '06 and I think we have three serious candidates for the job this time around. Anyone of them would be a marked improvement over Stephen Harper. However, none of them will be able to do anything unless we get our party back in some sort of working order. Renewal, renewal, renewal. It doesn't matter who's running the party.

President-Elect Obama

A monumental night south of the border. Barack Obama has completely changed the US electoral map. You have to admire the tactical brilliance of the Obama campaign. Let's look at the electoral college results regionally compared to 2004 assuming NC for Obama and MO for McCain:

Northeast: EVEN (Democratic Sweep both years)
Southeast: Obama + 55 EV (NC, VA, FL)
Midwest: Obama + 38 EV (OH, IN, IA)
West: Obama + 19 EV (CO, NM, NV)

He defeated John McCain by defending his home turf perfectly and picking off red state after red state. He knew he had the money advantage and the volunteer advantage and he used it to spread McCain/Palin so far that they snapped. He lost three swing states last night (MO, ND, MT) and won in a landslide. There was just no way McCain could defend twelve states with 85 million dollars. Obama knew it and last night you saw the result. This represents not only the end of John McCain but also the law that bears his name, McCain/Feingold. No presidential candidate is likely to ever take public financing unless the law is revamped to make it more competitive. More detailed analysis will follow.

McCain's Problems Begin

Obama is up 40 points in early returns in New Hampshire.  In all seriousness, I feel like a kid before Christmas or something.  It should be a fun night.

Prediction Time Part Two

Onward and upward as they say. Twenty-five states left, so let's get going.

Montana (3): Another one of those red states that shouldn't be in play, Montana demonstrates another one of Obama's electoral strengths: Native Americans. Obama has reached out to Native Americans more than most presidential candidates and they are likely to return him the favour in numbers. In both Montana and North Dakota, the Native vote is pushing Obama closer than he would normally be. However, Montana seems to be a bridge too far with Obama looking like he's going to go down by 3-5 points. Democrats are looking at Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) as a possible 2016 pick if anyone's interested.

Running Total: McCain 101, Obama 189

Nebraska (5): The other state to split its electoral votes, Nebraska like Maine has never actually done so. There are those in the Obama camp that think the congressional district around Omaha may be in play. Call it the Buffett effect. I don't buy it. While the Oracle may be backing Obama, I think his fellow Nebraskans will follow McCain

Running Total: McCain 106, Obama 189

Nevada (5): Normally when people talk about Nevada swinging, they aren't talking politics. However, the Silver State is in play this time around. As with most Western states, the outcome depends how strong the Hispanic support is for Obama. With good early voting returns in Clark County (read Las Vegas), Obama appears to be in control here. If McCain wins on Tuesday it will be by pulling off upsets in states like Nevada. I just don't see him coming back here though. Not against a battle tested Obama ground game that figured out a way to lose the popular vote and still come away with 2 more delegates than Clinton in the winter.

Running Total: McCain 106, Obama 194

New Hampshire (4): If there's one race that's going to break John McCain's heart, it will be New Hampshire. The independent minded people of New Hampshire twice delivered for McCain in the primaries. However, in general elections, New Hampshire has taken a hard left turn since delivering the White House for Bush in 2000 (remember any state would have done for Gore). The Republican collapse in 2006 was visible from space in New Hampshire as they got swept out of congress and lost badly in the state elections. With former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) cruising to an easy victory against incumbent Sen. John Sunnunu (R), New Hampshire appears to be in a Democratic mood. Expect it to extend to the top of the ticket where Obama will finally have his New Hampshire win.

Running Total: McCain 106, Obama 198

New Jersey (15): Every cycle, the Republicans think they can get back to competitiveness in New Jersey. Then the polls show them ten points down and they abandon ship. This year is no different. The Garden State will vote for Obama.

Running Total: McCain 106, Obama 213

New Mexico (5): It is ironic that a Republican ticket with two Western candidates may lose the election because of a miserable performance in the West. However, that looks to be a distinct possibility and states like New Mexico tell the tale. New Mexico, in most years, is a swing state. This year Obama looks to be in command. Hispanics again tell a large portion of the story.

Running Total: McCain 106, Obama 218

New York (31): With the third most electoral votes, New York is a major prize. However, like states one and two (CA and TX), New York has not been competitive in a while. The Empire State may have voted more enthusiastically for their own junior senator but they will elect the junior senator from Illinois by a wide margin.

Running Total: McCain 106, Obama 249

North Carolina (15): John Edwards never could make his home state competitive for John Kerry in 2004. However, with Edwards mired in an affair, Obama-Biden is neck-and-neck in the Tar Heel State. While recent polls seem to favour John McCain, the early voting here (like Georgia) is jaw-dropping. Over 40% of North Carolinians have already voted and over half of those are registered Democrats. With Sen. Dole (R) facing a surging Kay Hagan (D) down ballot, I expect the Democratic ground game to put this one over the top. Obama on a hunch.

Running Total: McCain 106, Obama 264

North Dakota (3): If North Dakota falls, the Republicans may begin tearing their hair out. They'd be justified. This state has voted Republican in the presidential contest for a dog's age. However, recent polls in North Dakota show a dead heat. Like Indiana, I just can't believe Obama can win here. I may be wrong, but I think McCain may win by 5 points.

Running Total: McCain 109, Obama 264

Ohio (20): It is oft repeated that no Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. It is oft repeated because it is true. However, Republicans have won Ohio and lost the election. Home to Joe the Plumber, McCain may pull Ohio out of the fire. It isn't that Obama can't win Ohio, I just feel like McCain-Palin's last minute assault on the state has worked.

Running Total: McCain 129, Obama 264

Oklahoma (7): Oklahoma is not a particularly interesting state politically. That won't change this year with McCain winning this reliably red state by a wide margin. They will also likely re-elect one of the most conservative Senators in the nation: James Inhofe.

Running Total: McCain 136, Obama 264

Oregon (7): In a different year, McCain could have won Oregon. In fact, earlier this year, I think he believed he could win Oregon. McCain's progressive views on global warming might have endeared him to this green state. As it is, Obama is looking like he's going to win in a walk. Things are so bad for McCain that Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) is running ads touting his work with Sen. Obama in the hopes of splitting off some of Obama's votes form his opponent.

Running Total: McCain 136, Obama 271 (Yes, he's over the top folks)

Pennsylvania (21): As demonstrated above, Obama doesn't need Pennsylvania state to win. It just makes his life easier. McCain threw the kitchen sink at the Keystone state. While Clinton threw the sink at Pennsylvania and came out on top, if broke, McCain is likely to come up empty. I think it may be closer than some of the polls, but still in the Democratic column. Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) called his constituents racist, and it may cost him. If he does lose, he will be a rarity: a losing Democratic incumbent. It should be a very good night congressionally for the Dems.

Running Total: McCain 136, Obama 292

Rhode Island (4): Blue state. Blue year. Really no hope for McCain in this tiny state.

Running Total: McCain 136, Obama 296

South Carolina (8): If New Hampshire breaks John McCain's heart on election day, he will take some solace from South Carolina. Eight and a half years ago, Karl Rove perfected his craft in South Carolina and effectively ended McCain's quest for the White House. In spite of the large African-American population, which Bill Clinton reminded us handed Jesse Jackson the Democratic primary twice, Obama will not have enough votes to be competitive here. Look for this to be one of the first states to be called for McCain on election night.

Running Total: McCain 144, Obama 296

South Dakota (3): While some of Obama's momentum in North Dakota has pushed south of the border into South Dakota, it is nowhere near enough. South Dakota will predictably vote for John McCain. The NRSC will be kicking itself that it couldn't find a serious candidate to face recovering stroke victim Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD). Running against a guy who almost died in office is difficult and the Republican bench is surprisingly short in South Dakota. Still, Johnson barely won in 2002 and should have been at the top of the NRSC target list.

Running Total: McCain 147, Obama 296

Tennessee (11): The centre piece of Obama's education policy may be volunteerism, but he has no chance in the volunteer state. Since rejecting its native son in 2000, Tennessee has become a Republican stronghold. Look for that trend to continue with McCain carrying the state in 2008.

Running Total: McCain 158, Obama 296

Texas (34): Democrats on the ground are excited about the future. The future does not mean Tuesday, however. While Hurricane refugees, a growing Hispanic population and the lack of a Bush on the ballot may pull the state closer to the Democratic column, closer not close is the operative word. Expect this one to be in the 10-15 point range for McCain.

Running Total: McCain 192, Obama 296

Utah (5): There are a lot of ways in which Utah is a quirky state. Politics, however, is fairly predictable. Unless Joseph Smith is resurrected and runs for the Democrats, the majority Mormon state is going for the Republicans. If Romney was on the ticket, the margin might have been DC silly. As it is it will just be regular old silly.

Running Total: McCain 197, Obama 296

Vermont (3): Vermont may have given the Democrats their largest advantage in this election and it has nothing to do with its electoral votes (although they don't hurt). Gov. Howard Dean's Fifty State Strategy deserves at least some of the credit for Obama's competitiveness in deep red states. This state is ridiculously liberal for the US. Heck, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) actually describes himself as a socialist. Expect Obama to win here blindfolded with both hands tied behind his back.

Running Total: McCain 197, Obama 299

Virginia (13): Obama's red state strategy has been successful in a lot of states. However, Virginia may be the most dramatic. The whole "real Virginia" comment won't help McCain either. It is odd two days before a presidential election to be calling VA for the Democrats. However, I don't see how McCain can possibly win here.

Running Total: McCain 197, Obama 312

Washington (11): The race here is apparently for the Governor's mansion where the Democratic incumbent who won by a nose (and I mean a nose, recount and all) is running for re-election. In spite of that tension, the race for the White House here is non-existent. Like Oregon, McCain could have been more competitive here but it never really materialized. Obama shouldn't have a problem.

Running Total: McCain 197, Obama 323

West Virginia (5): There was a moment in this campaign that West Virginia seemed in play. It didn't last. In spite of having two high profile Democratic senators (Byrd and Rockefeller), West Virginia will go to McCain and probably handily.

Running Total: McCain 202, Obama 323

Wisconsin (10): Like Minnesota and Michigan, Wisconisn was once thought to be in play. However, McCain never really caught fire here. Obama relied on the students in Madison and elsewhere to deliver him a large primary win here. Expect a similar story on Tuesday.

Running Total: McCain 202, Obama 333

Wyoming (3): The home state of Dick Cheney is unsurprisingly about as red as they come. There are some competitive down ballot races but the top of the ticket will be predictable. McCain by a large margin.

Final Tally: McCain 205, Obama 333

Prediction Time

With mere hours left until the polls open nationwide south of the border it is time to get going on my state by state predictions. Here we go in alphabetical order. I might divide this into two very long posts.

Alabama (9): The Obama campaign is surging across the south. Not so much in Alabama. African- Americans may vote in record numbers but this is safe for John McCain.

Running Total: McCain 9, Obama 0

Alaska (3): Had John McCain chosen anyone else as his VP, this state would have been, like North Dakota and Montana, in play. However, if nothing else, Sarah Palin has given him her home state. Even the likely defeat of a sitting Republican Senator (convicted of corruption) and Republican Congressman (suspected of corruption) won't help Obama's fortunes here. Palin/McCain hold this red state.

Running Total: McCain 12, Obama 0

Arizona (10): The home state of John McCain was expected to be a non-contest for most of this election. Then someone decided to actually poll the place and found Obama competitive. However, competitive is not the same as winning. I expect even with Hispanics voting 2:1 for Obama, McCain will hold on.

Running Total: McCain 22, Obama 0

Arkansas (6): If somehow Obama loses this election the Clinton supporters will harp on what is expected to be a poor showing in Arkansas. While this state has no problem electing Democrats to statewide office, Obama has been unable to make a move here. Another safe state for McCain.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 0

California (55): Arnold aside, California is about as Blue as they come. McCain originally thought he could win over independents in the home state of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, but that strategy was quickly abandoned. Yes, the pollsters overrated Obama's primary support, but not by twenty points. Chalk the largest electoral prize up in the Obama column.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 55

Colorado (9): If McCain loses this election, it will be places like Colorado that cost him. This is a state that voted for Bush twice and home to one of the largest evangelical churches in the nation. However, a growing hispanic community has pushed voter registration and this state in general into the Democratic column. They picked up a senate seat here in 2006 and are poised to snag the other one this year (one of the brothers Udall). This state has been polling strongly for Obama. Also, in spite of the efforts of the evangelicals (who are the ones who traditionally use advanced voting), more Democrats than Republicans voted early this year. Will it be close? Probably. Will Obama win? Probably.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 64

Connecticut (7): In a different year, the endorsement of independent Senator Joe Lieberman in this New England state might have made McCain competitive here. Joe-mentum though is usually an overrated commodity. This state has been reliably Democratic for a while, expect it to continue. There's a reason Lieberman, who spoke at the RNC, hasn't joined the Republicans: he wants to get re-elected. Obama wins here in a walk.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 71

Delaware (3): In arguing against choosing Joe Biden, I said that it didn't give Obama any states, Delaware being one of the bluest states in the Union. The only interesting thing in Delaware is who they get to fill Biden's Senate seat if Obama wins on Tuesday. His son, Beau, the state's Attorney General is seen as a natural successor. The only problem? He's in Iraq right now fighting for his country. At any rate, Obama picks up the electoral votes.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 74

District of Columbia (3): The least competitive race on Tuesday night will be at the centre of it all. DC is famous for its absurd Democratic margins and expect it to get downright silly on Tuesday with an African-American on the ballot.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 77

Florida (27): What would a presidential election be without the annual appeal to the elderly voters of Florida? With Jews looking increasingly comfortable with Barack Hussein Obama, and a major shift expected in Cuban-American voters to the Democratic ticket, I like Obama's chances here. If I was doing this prediction in a more intelligent way (i.e. not alphabetically) I would have left Florida until a later post. It really should be a coin flip. At the end of the day I favour Obama's ground game.

Running Total: McCain 28, Obama 104

Georgia (15): The very fact that Georgia's electoral votes are in question shows how bad a fall it has been for the Republicans. While the huge African-American turnout is certainly a large part of the story, there should have been enough white Republicans for McCain to take this in a walk. As it is, I expect a close race. However, I just can't believe Obama can pull this off. I do expect Senator Saxby Chambliss to be pushed to a run-off here.

Running Total: McCain 43, Obama 104

Hawaii (4): One of the convenient things about the two states outside the continental United States is that they basically cancel each other out. Alaska is as red as they come. Hawaii is similarly blue. Hawaii is excited about electing their native son to the White House. Obama may see his largest margin of victory here. It is interesting to see Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) standing up for his contemporary Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK).

Running Total: McCain 43, Obama 108

Idaho (4): This is probably the reddest state in the Union. It is home to the last school Sarah Palin went to (Univ. of Idaho). There is a competitive house race here. See what competing everywhere gets you Canadian Liberals? McCain wins easily but not easily as previous Republicans.

Running Total: McCain 47, Obama 108

Illinois (21): From one of Obama's homes to another. The best party on earth may be in Chicago on Tuesday night. This state is where the Republican Party's historic collapse may have begun. Obama was the first of many Democrats to benefit from the Republicans having a lousy Senate opponent. We shall see if the NRSC finds someone to run against whoever emerges from the Democratic primary in 2010. Jesse Jackson jr. is among the contenders so you know it will be interesting.

Running Total: McCain 47, Obama 129

Indiana (11): How is this reddest of red states in play? Well, a lot of people credit the economic collapse combined with the competitive Democratic primary. Had Obama picked popular Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) as his running mate, he probably could have had this state locked up. As is, it is a definite toss-up. However, I expect Obama to fall just short as he did in the primary against Clinton.

Running Total: McCain 58, Obama 129

Iowa (7): Remember the Iowa Caucuses? The people of Iowa do. They remember that Barack Obama went around talking to them and earning their vote while McCain held 100 townhalls in New Hampshire and ignored the Hawkeye state. Combine this with McCain's less than enthusiastic support for ethanol and Obama will carry this state that voted for Bush in 2004 easily.

Running Total: McCain 58, Obama 136

Kansas (6): There is the off-chance that had Obama chosen Gov. Kathleen Sibelius (D-KS) as his running mate, he would have had a chance in his mother's birth state. As it is, this state will go to McCain in a walk.

Running Total: McCain 64, Obama 136

Kentucky (8): The primaries are usually not a reliable indicator of future success. However, Obama's abysmal showing in Kentucy is likely to be repeated on election day. McCain should win easily. More interesting is the senate race where minority leader Mitch McConnell faces the fight of his life. If McConnell loses the Democrats may get to the sixty votes they need to have fillibuster proof senate.

Running Total: McCain 72, Obama 136

Louisiana (9): Louisiana is a bit of a curiosity. If it weren't for Hurricane Katrina, there might be enough African-Americans here to make Obama competitive. However, if it weren't for Katrina, the Republican Party would probably not be in such desperate shape. All in all, I expect the recent poll that showed Obama within 3 points here was an outlier. I expect a McCain victory by 7-9 points. The only potentially vulnerable Democratic Senator is Mary Landrieu (D-LA). However it appears that she will win re-election. The only question on Tuesday will be whether or not she can avoid a run-off.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 136

Maine (4): Maine is one of two states that divides its electoral votes. Two go to the overall winner and one goes to the candidate who wins in each of its two electoral districts. There was a time, when pundits thought that Maine might be close enough (a lot of hockey moms in Maine) to actually deliver one of its electoral votes for McCain. It seems increasingly unlikely. It also seems increasingly unlikely that Tom Allen (D) will unseat moderate Republican Senator Susan Collins.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 140

Maryland (10): Although not as Democratic as DC, Maryland is a reliable blue state. With record turnout expected among African-Americans, expect Maryland to go overwhelmingly to Obama.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 150

Massachussetts (12): In spite of Gov. Deval Patrick's (D-MA) decreasing popularity in the state and the recent revelation of a Democratic state senator accepting bribes, Massachussetts will continue to be a true blue state. Will Obama match hometown Sen. Kerry's margin? Maybe not. Will it matter? Definitely not.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 162

Michigan (17): Pundits may point to John McCain's decision to pull out of Michigan as the moment when he lost the election. It isn't so much that McCain lost because he didn't campaign in Michigan so much as the fact that he couldn't win Michigan meant that the Republican ticket was sunk. This is a state that Romney probably would have put in play. With convicted Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D) off the front pages, Obama should win by a decent margin here.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 179

Minnesota (10): The GOP held its convention in the twin cities with the expectation that the northern midwest (MN, MI, WI) would be in play. They haven't been and it increasingly looks like the GOP wasted its time in the land of a thousand lakes. If Gov. Pawlenty (R-MN) was on the ticket, the outcome may have been different. As it is, this state will be called quickly on Tuesday.

Running Total: McCain 81, Obama 189

Mississippi (6): Mississippi is a state that will be shaped by the size of the African-American turnout. If it is as high as expected Obama may get within 10 points here (a sizeable achievement). It may also be enough to carry former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) to victory over appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R) in the special election to replace Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS).

Running Total: McCain 87, Obama 189

Missouri (11): The bellweather of bellweathers, Missouri is definitely a toss-up again this year. The question here, as it is in most swing states is whether or not Obama can actually turnout the massive crowds that have come to his rallies (100,000+ in St. Louis). If McCain loses here, it will be a very long night for the Senator from Arizona. I expect this to be one of the last states to be called on election night in spite of the fact that its polls close at 8pm. At the end of the day, I'll take McCain in a squeaker. A result which will in all likelihood make Missouri a little less bellweathery.

Running Total: McCain 98, Obama 189

Okay, by my count that's 25 + the district down, 25 to go. Good time to take a break.

Good Omens For Barack Obama

Early voting is taken fairly seriously in the states and the results that have come in are pretty favourable for the Democrat. While party registration isn't a perfect predictor of voting intention, it is a decent facsimile. While some registered Democrats will vote Republican, it is a two way street. Here's some data from two key swing states.

In North Carolina, 771,549 registered Democrats had voted early compared with only 369,109 Republicans. In other words Democrats are out puling republicans two to one in formerly red North Carolina. While the state does have more registered Democrats than Republicans the ratio should be just under 3:2 for the Dems not over 2:1. North Carolina does a great job of keeping their records up to date and you can follow it all here.

In Florida, the state makes it a little harder total votes by registration so I just chose a county at somewhat random for a spot check. Alachua county is dominated by the city of Gainesville which is itself dominated by the University of Florida. If Obama is to win on election night, he needs younger voters, particularly university voters, to vote in numbers. That appears to be happening at the home of Gatorade. In a county Kerry won by a margin of about 4:3(62,504 to 47,762), Democrats have outvoted Republicans by a margin of about 7:2 (16,984 to 4,804).

There are two big problems for McCain in these numbers. First, even if McCain is able to make up ground in the last week, 23% of North Carolinians have already voted and can't change their minds. While the number is lower in Florida (only about 15%) it still represents a major challenge. Second, on election day Barack Obama is going to have fewer votes that he has to pull with his massive ground organization. In Alachua county for instance, he already has about a quarter of John Kerry's votes from 2004. In North Carolina, over a quarter of registered Democrats have already voted which represents an astouding 50% of Kerry's 2004 total. McCain by contrast, has a lot of work to do. In Alachua, Republicans only account for 10% of Bush's total in 2004. In North Carolina, less than a fifth of Republicans have voted representing a similar amount of George W. Bush's 2004 vote. This represents a lot more work for McCain's smaller ground team.

McCain can only hope that independents are breaking overwhelmingly for him in both these cases, otherwise, he's in big trouble. Independents are, however, a small chunk of the votes already cast (roughly 15% in Alachua and 17% in North Carolina).

Ukraine Bailout

You know that the world is really screwed up when a major IMF bailout seems to come out of nowhere. I mean I heard about problems in Eastern Europe so I guess I shouldn't be totally surprised. Somehow I don't think this will be the last bailout the IMF makes before this thing is set and done.

Ideas to Fix the Liberal Party of Canada

Before I start, I encourage any Liberal who cares about the future of this party to read the Calgary Grit. I usually agree with Dan and today is no exception. Now, some ideas of my own to add to the list. Some of these are simple and no brainers, some of these are things that may not be perfectly thought out but I feel we need to be going in that general direction.

Get Volunteers to Sign Membership Forms: A lot of what's wrong with the Liberal Party is that we don't do the little things right. This is one of them. I know that there are hundreds or maybe thousands of people who helped out Liberal campaigns across the country this fall that are not members of the Liberal Party. Why? Well, in a lot of cases, nobody bothered to ask. This must change. These people are the people we need to expand our party membership and our fundraising base. Let's mandate that within six weeks of each election the riding association must hold an open meeting where it tries to sign up new members. Easy, cheap and a great way to make sure people who get involved during elections, stay involved in between elections.

Stop Asking for Money for No Apparent Reason: I don't know about you, but I've stopped opening the e-mails I get from central party. Why? I know what they say without opening them. Here's a synopsis of the e-mail: "Stephen Harper is evil. Look what he's doing now. The Liberal Party is the only party that can . Please go to liberal.ca to donate today." I like the idea of consistently going to the well for small amounts instead of going to the well for a large amount one time. However, if you make your pitch all the time, people are going to just tune you out.

Stop Trying to Con Your Members Into Giving Money: This admittedly only happened once but it offended me to no end. I get an e-mail (I bothered to open this one) saying that I had just committed on the phone to donate to the party and this is just an e-mail following up. Well, I had done no such thing. I know I did no such thing because this was in the middle of the election and I hadn't been home and awake for more than a couple of hours late at night for weeks because I was working on the campaign. Don't lie to your members. If you want money, give me a good reason to donate.

Find Our Howard Dean: If Barack Obama wins this election, a lot of the credit will belong to the chairman of the DNC, former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean. Dean is responsible for transforming the Democratic party from a regional, directionless, poor party into the national, focused, fundraising machine it is today. Dean was the first Democrat to fundraise effectively over the internet. When we elect a new leader of the Liberal Party, we will also be electing a new President of the Liberal Party. If we are to succeed, we need a President that will be able to bring the big red machine into the twenty-first century. My suggestion for the job? Paul Martin. Ok, stop laughing for a minute and think about it. The next President of the LPC will have two jobs: make us competitive in the fundraising department and rebuild moribund riding associations. I can't think of a better person for this job than Paul Martin. Martin is as good a fundraiser as this party is going to find. He knows everyone in the party and has the respect of most of them. I understand that he couldn't turn us into a grassroots, Dean/Obama style, fundraising machine during his tenure as leader. I also understand that if he was solely focused on that task, he might have more success. Martin also knows something about building riding associations. Martin was a master at building up riding associations when he was trying to become leader. He took over almost every riding association in the country. If he can take them over, he can build them up. We need someone with his gravitas to make this work. That's why Gov. Dean has been so successful. He has the name recognition and the respect of the people in the party. It doesn't have to be Martin. In fact, I doubt he'd want the job. But it should be someone with a big name, who understands grassroots politics.

Fight Everywhere: I am a firm believer in the Liberal 308 campaign that has begun. If we are to form government again, it will only be if we are competitive in every part of this country. We have conceded to many races to the Tories, NDP and Bloc. Hell, we even conceded a race to the Greens this time around. That is not acceptable. We have to build support for our party everywhere by engaging with our grassroots everywhere. It will not be an easy process, but it is doable.

We Are Not Just Another Left Wing Party: One of the things that really offends me is when Liberals make the argument that the majority of the country voted for progressive candidates. If we portray ourselves as fundamentally no different from the NDP, Greens or Bloc, why should Canadians see a difference on election day? We are not a left wing party. We are a centrist party. In fact, the only centrist party this country has. We get elected when we appeal to all Canadians, not just self-identified progressives. We are not like the NDP and Greens a party of ideology. We are simply not like the Bloc. We couldn't be less like the Bloc. We fundamentally disagree with all of these parties over core principles and ideas. Yes, we disagree with the Conservatives as well. Our disagreement with the Tories, however, should not be our defining characteristic. We are the party of small business as much as we are the party of the poor. We are the party of fiscal responsibility as much as we are the party of healthcare and childcare. It is this unification of ideals, free from restrictive ideology, that has made us so successful in the past. We must embrace that legacy if we are to succeed in the future.

We Are Not the Natural Governing Party: I want to start a swear jar for every time a Liberal claims we are the natural governing party. There is no such thing as a natural governing party. We are a centrist party. This means that a plurality of Canadians tend to agree with us philosophically. However, that does not mean we are entitled to a single vote. Everytime we tell Canadians that we are the natural governing party, we become less likely to ever govern again. We will not fix this party, unless we understand that we're never going to get elected by just hoping Canadians come back to us. We came back to power in 1993 because we had a clear and pragmatic vision for this country that Canadians could support not because it was inevitable.

I really hope that we can have a genuine discussion about renewal amid the intra-partisan bickering of a leadership race. We have a lot of work to do and we need to get started.

A Thousand Times No

There are many out there right now who think that the real problem with the Liberal Party is the method by which we choose our leader. The argument goes that it was the backroom deals on the convention floor that gave our party Stephane Dion and therefore if we eliminate convention floor, all will be right with the world. What most of these people advocate for is a one-member-one vote system. While this may sound lovely, it is in fact a recipe for disaster. The problem with one-member-one-vote systems is that they allow the candidate who can sign up a bunch of instant members the chance to win without any support from the people in the party who actually do the heavy lifting and know something about running a political party. This is, in large measure, how John Tory became the leader of the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario. You think we've got leadership issues. The system by which we elect a leader is transparent and effective. Members vote for the leadership candidate of their choice and then for the delegate candidates that they feel are most qualified to represent them at the convention. These delegates are bound to vote as they had promised on the first ballot. After that, they are free to make a decision as to who they should support. The rest of the delegates are all the candidates from the last election plus all the presidents of the local riding associations plus a few other party higher ups (senators, former cabinet ministers, premiers, executive members etc.). These people, the people who will be doing a large share (although there are plenty of hardworking Liberals who don't go to conventions) of the heavy lifting come election time, choose who will become leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. We don't just hand the crown to the person who signs up a ton of members in one riding. The system ensures that our party will elect a leader that the entire party from coast to coast to coast is comfortable with and that has the support of real Liberals not just instant Liberals.

This system is similar to the system employed in the United States (which was praised by many Canadian pundits for generating excitement about politics just a few months ago) except that our system eliminates the stupid "first in the nation primary" BS by having all of the delegate selection meetings over one weekend. We also do the entire selection process over one weekend unike most states which vote based on candidate choice and then have a state-wide convention to pick the delegates.

Side Note: Anyone thought about who the ex-officio candidate delegate for Central Nova will be? Will they be short a delegate relative to the rest of the country? Will they go back to the 2006 candidate? Or will we give the spot to the person who Liberals in Central Nova were told to vote for in the last election, Elizabeth May? Just asking.

Anyone Understand This

I mean I know the polls are looking good for Obama these days, but Clinton in Omaha? Maybe they think one of the electoral districts is up for grabs. Nebraska does split its electoral votes.

It Begins...

M. Dion has announced what has become inevitable over the last week, he will resign as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. I look forward to hearing from the field of candidates which will emerge over the next weeks and months. I will be looking for a candidate to tell me why she/he wants to be Prime Minister. What does he/she want to do as Prime Minister? In particular, I want to hear from a leader who will focus on the challenges which face Canada today and will face Canada in the future. I want to hear about how Canada can change its economy in the face of the new globalized economy. I want to hear how we are going to confront the impending demographic challenges which threaten to overwhelm our public health care system and other social welfare programs. I want to hear about how we are going to fix our immigration system to make it fairer and more effective. Finally, I still want to hear about how we are going to confront the climate crisis, only this time in a way that Canadians can support. The candidate who does this will have my support. Let the delightful dismemberment of the Liberal hopescape begin!

Cracks in EU's Green Wall

Apparently Canadians aren't the only ones who think an economic recession is a good time to implement a massive climate change plan. Members of the European Union are now objecting to making this kind of move at this time.

Post Mortem

Literally, post mortem means after death and that is a somewhat accurate description today. There are few bright spots today for Liberals. I can only think of four pick-ups if you don't count seats reclaimed after floor-crossing. We are in the wilderness folks. To add insult to injury, Jack Layton is still my member of parliament. Stéphane Dion ran a disastrous campaign. He placed a bad policy as the central plank of our platform. It was the wrong policy at the wrong time. That said, I beg my fellow Liberals to spare us the fratricidal (and sororicidal) bloodletting of a third leadership race in six years.

Toronto-Danforth Votes NDP Out

The people of Toronto-Danforth showed their displeasure with their absentee MP tonight. After Jack backed out of a debate scheduled to try to accommodate Layton's schedule, the attendees of the debate blocked an attempt to have Peter Tabuns stand in for his comrade. City-TV has the video. Jack Layton apparently has forgotten that in Toronto-Danforth, local matters.

EU Envy

There are few things I hate more than being told how great the European Union is. Doug Saunders is at it in the Saturday Globe. Saunders is using the prism of the EU-Canada trade talks to discuss the issues in dealing with Canada because of our loose federalism. Saunders marvels at the ease that Europe, a collection of 27 independent states, has in negotiating treaties. He ignores the reason for this freedom: lack of democracy. The European Union remains a fundamentally undemocratic institution. Controlled in large measure by an unelected bureaucracy in Brussels (led by President Barroso) and the heads of government of the 27 member states (currently led by President Sarkozy), the European Commission and European Council, as they are known, wield an enormous amount of power. There is also a political consensus among the major parties of the majority of EU states that European integration is both positive and essential. The irony is that fewer and fewer Europeans actually want the integration their political masters are pushing. The first round of European constitution meetings collapsed because, well, people were allowed to vote on it. The second round collapsed, in spite of efforts to prevent people from voting on it, because the Irish government couldn't get around their constitution and had to let the people vote on it. If Presidents Barroso and Sarkozy had to sell this to the electorate of certain member states, it would undoubtedly fail. It is only because the EU is so insulated from its people that it can negotiate with such impugnity. While the EU is probably a benevolent dictator most of the time, it is a dictator nonetheless. The toothless European Parliament has not changed this fact. If Mr. Saunders et al. want Canada to be more like the EU, they should realize that the cost is democracy.

Side Note: I actually really hope these talks succeed. While I don't want to be like the EU, I would like to have a more active trading relationship with our friends across the pond. In a related story the free trade conspiracy theorists had a major hole blasted through their water fear-mongering today.

21 Days Later...

Jack Layton actually shows up in his own riding! The MP for Air Canada finally touched down close to home. Three weeks. That's how long it took him to talk to voters in his own riding. Will he be back? We don't know. There is an all candidates debate scheduled in Toronto-Danforth for October 7th. Jack didn't think it worth his time to come to the last one. We'll see about this one. To track Jack's travels, please visit www.wheresjack.ca. It's time to remind Jack Layton that local matters.

Tyler Banham for Hamilton Mountain

This is brilliant.

Oh, The Joys of a Low Profile Blog

Cherniak has the Layton/9-11 Truth video I posted about a month and half ago. Now apparently, they are news. I'm glad the videos are making the rounds even if it is a month and half late.

Markets Bounce

Whenever I see a dead cat bounce like this I am reminded of the words of the American poet Ogden Nash:

"Man is a victim of dope/in the incurable form of hope."

In Other News...

We're all screwed. I know that most politically minded folk north of the 49th are consumed by the election. However, even I have noticed in between canvasses that the world's economy is circling the drain. Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Green or Bloc this economy is going south and fast. The US government's completely inconsistent policy on bailouts isn't helping either.

Take Heart

I know that there are a lot of Liberals out there who are pulling their hair out right now. They see the poll numbers and they start to panic. Let's all take a deep breath. Remember the national campaign for 99% of us, is beyond our control. We have to have faith that they will start turning things around. We need to stop panicking, stop complaining, and start working our butts off. I encourage everyone to go into your local candidates office in the coming days and help out. The Liberal Party is as strong as we make it. Go out and win this election. You can make a difference.

If any of you are in Toronto and are looking for a campaign to help out on. Look no further. Jack Layton is ignoring his home riding of Toronto-Danforth. Andrew Lang and the Liberal team in Toronto-Danforth are working hard to make Jack pay for this mistake. If you want to help please send us an e-mail at andrew@andrewlang.ca, give us a call at (416) 463-8378 or drop by our office at 746 Danforth Avenue, just east of Pape Station. Together we can paint the Danforth red.

Lang Slams Layton Over Debate Decision

From the Andrew Lang for Toronto-Danforth Campaign:

LAYTON’S OPPOSITION SHUTS GREEN PARTY OUT OF DEBATE
Toronto-Danforth Liberal Candidate Andrew Lang calls 
Layton’s decision disappointing

September 8, 2008 – Toronto-Danforth Member of Parliament Jack Layton denied Elizabeth May and the Green Party the opportunity to participate in the televised leader’s debate today, according to local Liberal candidate Andrew Lang.

“Jack Layton spends a lot of time talking about giving a voice to people who don’t have one,” said Lang. “And so I find his decision to silence Elizabeth May disappointing, although not altogether surprising. Jack Layton showed the same disregard for debate and dialogue when he refused to participate in a local debate in this riding in the last election.”

Recent polls put Green Party support across the country around 10%, and in by-elections held in early 2008, the Green Party finished neck-and-neck with the NDP in several ridings, including Willowdale, where the Greens finished ahead of the New Democratic candidate.

The NDP, along with the Conservatives and the Bloc, opposed May’s inclusion in the October 2 debate, announced today. The Liberal Party supported her participation.

- 30 -

For more information:
Andrew Lang Campaign
media@andrewlang.ca

The Message Track We're Not On

As Campaign 2008 kicks off, I expect my blogging to be light. My time will be spent helping to elect Andrew Lang as the next Member of Parliament for the great riding of Toronto-Danforth. However, I do want to throw an idea out into the blogosphere. Stephane Dion is saying that he wants the opportunity during this campaign to define himself after enduring two years of Conservative attacks. His tactic seems to be to portray himself as a lean green fighting machine. All well and good, but I think we can do better. Stephane Dion is a Canadian hero and we should not be afraid to remind voters of his heroism.

Stephen Harper rightly says that we are facing turbulent times ahead. I would argue that if you want an example of leadership in crisis, look no further than Stephane Dion. When our country faced, perhaps, its greatest crisis during the 1995 Referendum and its aftermath, M. Dion showed extraordinary courage and heroism. During the referendum, M. Dion went toe to toe with Lucien Bouchard and held his own. Something all the pundits said couldn't be done. After the referendum, Stephane Dion ensured that our country would never again face the issue of national unity without clear rules and regulations. M. Dion is a hero. He put his personal reputation, his name, on the line for his country. It is that Stephane Dion that will be a great Prime Minister. We can talk policy until we're hoarse and get nowhere. Or we can talk about the character of the man who we believe should be Prime Minister.

The Front Bench Empties

The Conservatives are facing a slew of retirements as we enter into a federal election. I get Emerson and Hearn. They're older and they've got battles for re-election. Well a battle for Hearn with Harper's unpopularity on the Rock, an impossible dream for Emerson. However, Solberg is a bit of a head scratcher. Apparently, he's got a job offer he just couldn't turn down, which was my suspicion when I heard the news. I mean the man is turning fifty in a couple of weeks making him a spring chicken by parliamentary standards. He's in one of the safest ridings in the country where he is personally extraordinarily popular. I have to think that Solberg has decided to cash in and make some money. Frankly, I don't blame him. The man got elected at 35, he's served his country for fifteen years, he's entitled to want to make a little more money and spend some time at home. The only reason it surprises me is that I would have put him on a short list to replace Stephen Harper. Then again, maybe he's going into the private sector to build up a war chest for a future leadership race, who knows. I do know that Harper just lost two of the better members of his "team" in Solberg and Emerson.

Palin Problems

McCain's VP picks increasingly looks to be the 2008 answer to Dan Quayle. There are a growing list of problems for Gov. Palin. First and foremost, her 17 year old daughter is five months pregnant. Why is this a problem? Well, if the goal is to appeal to working class women, particularly mothers, how is this story going to play. How many mothers would think it appropriate to throw their 17 year old pregnant daughter into the national spotlight? How many mothers would think it appropriate to be moving halfway across the planet (check out the distance from Washington to Alaska) at this time of personal upheaval? This is the kind of thing that politicians (of any gender) might leave politics to deal with, not try to climb the ladder. Obama is right to say that the Palin family is not up for political discussion. However, if Gov. Palin is being picked in large measure for her values, for her personal qualities as a human being, it is entirely fair to question a potential vice-president's judgment in a time of personal crisis. Further muddying Palin's judgment is the trooper-gate affair. Once again, the central actors in the story are almost irrelevant. Whether or not Palin's former brother-in-law is an abusive husband and father is almost irrelevant. No matter how dispicable her brother-in-law is, the Governor was in a clear conflict of interest and should have recused herself and her office from any involvement in the case. The fact that she may have taken steps to have her brother-in-law fired and subsequently fired a bureaucrat who defied her wishes is at issue. The allegations, if true, would further cast doubt on Palin's judgment. Even if we throw Palin's experience or lack thereof out the window, her lack of judgment should disqualify her from the office that she seeks.

Tick, Tick, Tick

So, we all know when the election is going to be. We all know how its going to happen. Can we just get this show on the road?

Disgraceful

Scott and David have the details. The news out of Guelph today is that some asshole or assholes (pardon my french but I call a spade, a spade) have vandalized property and gone so far as to cut break lines at cars parked in front of homes with Frank Valeriote signs. Kudos to all four candidates in Guelph for decrying this kind of criminal behaviour (Scott's got the press release). This is a direct assault on our democracy and I hope these criminals are caught and punished to the full extent of the law. This kind of shit makes me sick.

McCain-Palin... Odd Couple 08

To the shock of the chattering classes, John McCain has chosen Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) to be his running mate. Quick run down of the positives and negatives:

Positives: She is in lock step with his base on almost every issue. That's something McCain desperately needed. She's a woman. This fits with McCain's overt attempt to lure Hillary supporters. Note that the two democrats she mentioned in her remarks were Geraldine Ferraro and Hillary Clinton not Barack Obama and Joe Biden. She's not from Washington. She has some maverick credentials. She probably takes Alaska off the map. She might help in Montana, the Dakotas and Colorado with her NRA membership. Working class roots.

Negatives: She has less than two years experience in even state-wide elected office. Yes, she has more executive experience than Obama-Biden, but she also has more than McCain. For a 72 year old candidate with a medical history longer than my arm to be choosing someone this green is a little worrisome. What exactly are her foreign policy credentials aside from having a son shipping off to war? She's under investigation for firing a bureaucrat for failing to fire her brother-in-law who was divorcing her sister. It may have been a staffer acting without her knowledge but it smells to high heaven. In a year where the Alaska Republican party is disentegrating before our eyes (Sen. Stevens (R-AK), Rep. Young (R-AK)), do you really want to be reminding people about bridges to nowhere? Based on today's introduction she's not going to wow anyone with her speaking skills which makes both halves of the Republican ticket.

I get what McCain was thinking with this pick. However, I would have gone with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX) if the criteria were conservative and female. What really would concern me if I were John McCain is it makes this election at least partially about the Republican ticket. McCain has made some progress in the polls making this election about the Democratic ticket. I don't think the Republicans necessarily want the spotlight.

I Can Use History Too!

"We bless your simplicity but do not envy your folly"
- Thucydides

Tom Flanagan has decided that Stephen Harper is channeling Scipio Africanus in his fight against Stephane Dion. While Mr. Flanagan's comparison seems apt, let me use another historical battle to show how easy it is to get history on your side. My story takes place in Greece and it is a war between a rich and expanding power and an old out-dated army. My historical narrative is the Peloponnesian War. Athens, having rallied much of Greece to its banner through the Delian league, was rich and had the most powerful navy in the world (read the Conservative Party of Canada). They were led by highly regarded leaders who were thought to be far smarter than their opponents like Pericles (read Stephen Harper). Sparta was an isolated city-state that relied on its powerful army for its defense (read the Liberal Party of Canada). The Athenians, in their arrogance, decided to attack the Peloponnesus (read Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal) in the hopes of defeating Sparta once and for all. Starting to sound like someone you know? The Athenians thought that they would rout the Spartans and indeed early naval battles went distinctly their way (by-elections anyone?). However, that's when the Athenians got greedy. They decided that waging war with Sparta wasn't enough, they decided to attack their long time adversaries in Syracuse as well (read the Bloc Quebecois). With their navy (or advertising dollars) tied up in Syracuse (Quebec) the Athenians began losing battle after battle in Greece (Ontario and the rest of Canada). Eventually, the Spartans were able to rout the Athenians in spite of all the advantages that Athens seemed to have at the beginning of the war. So you see boys and girls, history tells us that the arrogant Tories are destined to fail miserably in this election. Isn't classical history fun?

Right Wing Misses Symbolism

Well, it shouldn't be surprising that people who hate arts and culture wouldn't understand the idea of symbolism. The right wing blogosphere is up in arms because they think Barack Obama is giving his speech in front of a mock-up of a Greek temple. That isn't quite the imagery he's going for. If you were, you know, thinking and not just angrily reacting you would realize that Barack Obama is delivering his speech on the 45th anniversary of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have A Dream" speech. Logically, they aren't a constructing a temple to their new god, they are reconstructing a temple to a REPUBLICAN president, namely Abraham Lincoln. The Lincoln Memorial, of course, being the site of Dr. King's famous speech. It doesn't matter whether or not the pillars are in a straight line or not. They're on an angle because its a stage, not an actual building. Greek temples had their pillars in a straight line too. The image they are going for is at left. It is wholly appropriate for the first African-American nominee of a major political party to honour Dr. King on the anniversary of his famous speech. It is also wholly appropriate to honour the president who ended slavery in the United States. Apparently, the right wing can't see this. Yes folks, the Republicans now see fit to attack the Lincoln Memorial.

A Nuclear Power In Crisis And Nobody Cares

It never ceases to amaze me what is deemed newsworthy and what isn't. Pakistan has been in full crisis mode ever since its Gen. Pervez Musharraf resigned. Is it getting any press in North America? I understand not covering the delightful dismemberment of Belgium. After all, who cares about Belgium? Pakistan is not so easily ignored. Lest we forget, Pakistan is a full fledged member of then nuclear club. It is also a critical ally in the war on terror. The direction which the country takes following its presidential elections are crucial not only in southern and central Asia but around the world. But who cares about that when we can spend hours dissecting Hillary's speech for any hint of bitterness. God help us all.

On Your Mark...

I am back from Guelph where I spent the weekend working on the Frank Valeriote by-election campaign. Or what we all believed to be a by-election campaign. It is becoming increasingly clear that a fall election is in the cards and the writ could very well be dropped in the next couple of weeks. I can only guess that Harper is not hearing good things from his by-election campaigns. I would have thought that Harper would have wanted to use any positive by-election result, even a close second, as momentum going into a general election. If, as is generally being discussed by the chattering classes, Harper is prepared to go before the three by-election results on September 8th, it means that Harper sees no benefit (I don't think he's looking to save some money here) to having those votes go ahead as planned.

Quick Thoughts

Having to get up before God to prepare for the first visit of a Liberal leader to Toronto-Danforth in God knows how long, I'm just going to ramble a bit tonight.

• First and foremost, by the time this is actually posted, Stephane Dion will be speaking at Cinespace Studios in Toronto. It's great to have the leader in the riding and I'm sure it will be a resounding success.
• I was at the Rob Oliphant event today in Don Valley West. I didn't actually hear the speeches (I was at the back in order to go out with Rob and M. Dion on Bayview afterwards), so I won't comment on that. It was a good crowd. Good energy. With the number of experience hands stearing the Oliphant ship, I am cautiously optimistic.
  
• Are we ready to start placing bets as to the start of the general election yet?
• Great to see Eric Lamaze win the gold today.
• Whenever we go to the polls, it's going to be economic policy front and centre.
• Hebron is finally all set to start up. More money us mainlanders will never see a penny of.
• I was visiting relatives in Don Valley West and picked up a piece put out by the Tory by-election campaign. Traditionally, first pieces tend to introduce your candidate. This piece barely mentioned the candidate. If it wasn't for the small print indicating who paid for the thing, John Carmichael's name would not have appeared once on the piece. The piece did talk about all the nice things Harper's done for Toronto. Included in the list was talk about spending on the arts... in the week Harper cut the arts budget by $44.5 million. The rest of the list was pennies here and there. Mostly stuff that previous governments had committed to.

Blogging will in all likelihood be slow this weekend as I head off to Guelph again to campaign for Frank Valeriotte.

Con-ned!

With apologies to Keith Olbermann a quick update into the government's fifty running scandals... Con-ned!

Number 3: What do Doctors Know About Medicine-Gate

Tony "landslide" Clement has been one of Harper's better cabinet ministers. Yes, the pool is that weak folks. Well, that was until he started arguing medical facts... with doctors! Mr. Clement you're not a doctor, you don't even play one on TV!

Number 2: And By Fixed He Means Completely Unfixed-Gate

Stephen Harper as I've already noted called a by-election in Don Valley West for September 22nd. This of course forces Elections Canada to run at tax-payers expense a returning office for the period of the by-election writ. Well, with Harper openly speculating about pulling the plug on the government before the by-election, Elections Canada may be running a returning office, printing ballots and accepting votes for NOTHING. It it were to happen, no amount of electoral reform would get the wasted votes back.

Number 1: China Totally Won't Be Important-Gate

As Jean Chretien has rightly pointed out, Stephen Harper's decision to avoid the opening ceremonies in Beijing may cause irreparable damage to what has been a strong relationship between Canada and China. Harper really can't say he was too busy. Heck, Putin made it and he was busy starting a war! China's coming out party and our Prime Minister stays home. I have no problem sending Emerson. He might even be the right man for the job. Still, the optics dictate that the PM make an appearance. I hope the economy can be supported as well on the moral high ground as it could by having a robust trading relationship with one of the world's largest economies.

And On the Seventh Day...

The Prime Minister called a by-election? Anyone know if this has been done before? I've heard of burying a bad news story on a Friday afternoon but Sunday? Apparently, this couldn't wait until Monday Morning. Anyone know the schedule for the vote on the throne speech/opposition days when the house returns? Maybe the PM wanted to make sure the election day was before the house fell? I'm just flummoxed by this one. With a fall election imminent and with the ink barely dry on Mr. Godfrey's resignation was it really necessary to spend taxpayers' money on a by-election? Loyal readers will know that I am big on local representation but Mr. Harper waited the maximum to call elections in Toronto-Centre and Willowdale, what makes DVW so different? Is he trying to take resources away from the Liberals and the NDP in Guelph? At any rate, I look forward to helping elect Rob Oliphant as the next member for Don Valley West. Just a reminder, we still have three by-elections going on in Guelph, Westmount-Ville-Marie and Saint-Lambert. Election day for the first three is September 8th. Election day in Don Valley West is September 22nd.

Harper's New Gambit

Stephen Harper has once again indicated a willingness to break a key policy plank. It's another plank that was supposedly based in his Reform Party roots. Yes, Harper has decided that if he can't goad Stephane Dion into a fall election, he'll call one himself. So why the flip-flop? The most obvious reason is that Harper is trying to learn from his predecessor at 24 Sussex and call the election before a massive scandal (namely, "In and Out" - contrary to what the media and the CPC may have you believe money laundering is frowned upon in this country) discredits his party to all Canadians. By dissolving parliament he breaks up that annoying ethics committee and prays that the wheels of justice move slowly so that his lawsuit against Elections Canada lasts through the writ period. In otherwords, namely his own, Mr. Harper is calling a "snap election for short-term political advantage." Exactly what he said he was putting a stop to when he passed the fixed election date legislation. Well, I guess not all of us are good at keeping promises. Seriously though, what is left of the old Reform agenda? Senate reform? Meet Michael Fortier. No more pandering to Quebec? Nation resolution, UNESCO, the list goes on. Fixed election dates? If he feels like it. Balanced Budgets? Not once they run out of assets to sell. Come on Alberta, how much longer is it going to take before you realize that this guy is more Brian Mulroney than Preston Manning?

So with all signs pointing to a fall election, what is the Tory strategy? Well, radio ads put out by the Tory candidate in the probably never going to be called by-election in Don Valley West may provide a hint. The ads, which are supposedly targeting the people of Don Valley West, talk almost exclusively about M. Dion, his leadership and The Green Shift. The line is clearly that it doesn't matter if you like your local Liberal candidate, this is about who you want in the Prime Minister's chair. Mr. Harper et al. are clearly reading the same polls as everyone else and are trying to make this vote about M. Dion's leadership (where he is weaker) instead of about the Liberal brand and the Liberal team (where we are stronger). Will it work? Who knows, but one can certainly see the wisdom in that line of attack.

Layton Promises What Liberals Have Already Delivered

Jack Layton is trying to prove that his party's victory in Outremount wasn't the combination of random forces unlikely to repeat themselves. To this end, he is promising Montrealers cash for their transit system. One problem Jack. Liberal leaders have already done what you are promising to do. A Liberal Prime Minister already gave one cent of the gas tax to cities for transit. A committment that would have been made permanent had Mr. Layton not brought down the Martin government in the fall of 2005. The rest of Jack's money is going to come from a cap and trade system set up by a pair of Liberal premiers. Tomorrow look for Jack Layton will promise to start the Canada Pension Plan, repatriate the Constitution and eliminate the deficit of the early 1990's.

Opa!

It isn't just the Olympics that kick off today. Here in Greektown we are gearing up for the fifteenth annual Krinos Taste of the Danforth. I encourage everyone in the GTA to come down and enjoy the food, the music and the party. If you've never made it down, you are in for a real treat. You really can't go wrong with any of the restaurants. The food is cheap and plentiful. It's a great way to find a new favourite restaurant. It may be GreekTown but the fare is as wide ranging as our wonderful city. Want some Brazilian or Japanese? They've got you covered. The music is great as well. There's activities for the kids, so bring them along and if they've never tried loukoumades (sp?), that's honey balls for the unitiated, it's a must. Finally, if you have a chance, say hi to the Lang Gang which is scheduled to have a lemonade stand Saturday on Arundel Ave. (that's one block east of Chester) just North of the Danforth.

However amid the frivolity, I repeat my plea from earlier years. For heaven's sake, take transit. This isn't really a drinking and driving thing (although don't be so stupid as to do that), it's a parking thing. The neighbourhoods which surround the Danforth are filled with homes with no driveways or garages to park a car in. Thus, many of the locals park their cars on the street. 362 days a year that isn't a problem. However, with literally tens of thousands of people descending on such a small amount of space, parking becomes a real problem. The only parking lots in the area are the couple of surface lots that have been built over the subway tracks so visitors tend to try to park in our cozy neighbourhoods. Most people who live in the area either love Taste or take the opportunity to get out of town for the weekend. Still, I hate to see my neighbours trapped in their houses because if they move their car they might not be able to park within a block of their house. You can get off at Broadview, Chester or Pape Station on the TTC and literally be steps from the action. So, please have fun on the Danforth this weekend, just leave your car at home.

Side Note: For the second straight year, the OYL has put Summer Fling the same weekend as Taste. Argh! So, after much deliberation, I'm leaving the party behind to go party with my party in Guelph (confused yet?).... oh, I guess we'll debate some policy too.

McCain's Convention Problems

John McCain should be enjoying his summer upswing in national and state polls. The road gets rockier heading in. One potential nightmare for the presumptive Republican nominee: his own convention. The GOP (or most of it) will be in Minnesota from September 1-4 trying to turn the only state won by Walter Mondale into a swing state. The problem for McCain is, who does the self-described "Maverick" get to speak at his nominating convention? See, it isn't very maverick-like to have McCain be endorsed by the big wigs of the Republican party. He could use as few pictures with the Bush/Cheney crowd as possible. Further complicating matters is that most of the Republicans who have been elected in the last eight years have cosied up to Bush to get votes. So then, who do you put on stage? I suppose the people that have been floated as VP possibilities but that's a fairly thin field. Gov. Jindal might hold people's attention for a few minutes. Romney isn't exactly cut from the Maverick mold. Gov. Palin is in the middle of a scandal (and really the less said about Alaska Republicans the better). Gov. Crist could work in a pinch. McCain is going to have a hard enough time competing with the show that the Democrats are going to put on in Denver. If people realize from watching the Republican convention that John McCain really is just another Republican, he's toast. If he fills the convention with moderates and conservative Democrats (can you feel the Joe-mentum?) he risks further alienating his skeptical base. Oh this dance is going to be something.

Jack Layton and 9/11 Truth

Just for kicks I decided to throw Jack Layton's name into YouTube. A little opposition watch on a long weekend. Anyway, apparently the 9/11 Truth idiots have taken to asking Mr. Layton questions about their causes. What's Layton's response? Does he condemn this bullshit for what it is? No. The member for Toronto-Danforth says that he is good friends with conspiracy theorist Barry Zwicker and that he has "studied" Mr. Zwicker's ramblings on the subject. He then PRAISES 9/11 Truth for their opposition to the equally non-existent North American Union. I wonder if he shares their views on the evils of vaccines. Here's the video (you have to fast forward through the random story about Layton and Chow not saving a guy's life).



I understand not wanting piss off these wackos, but there's a large gulf between polite and sympathetic. Jack seems to be leaning strongly to the latter.