All Politics Is Local

Hungary and the Death of Democracy in Europe

2012-01-16T00:52:00.001-05:00

In October 2006, I took a trip to Budapest for a vacation. Unbeknownst to me at the time, October 2006 was an interesting time to be in the Hungarian capital. In May 2006, Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany's MSZP party had been re-elected under the shadow of a collapsing economy and ballooning budget deficit. In September, an audio tape was discovered which featured the Gyurcsany bragging to confidantes how he was lying about the size of the deficit. This sparked outrage in the country and in Budapest in the fall of 2006 large protests filled the area around the Hungarian parliament, including during the time I was in Hungary. At the time, I remember thinking how amazing it was to see people so engaged in their politics. I thought about how Hungarians who had fought for so long and so hard to have a voice, would not stand for corrupt politicians. I am increasingly worried that I was wrong. In 2010, Gyurcsany's party was defeated handily (he had already resigned) in the wake of not only that scandal but the full force of an economic crisis that his Hungary about as hard as it hit anyone. The current Prime Minister, Viktor Orban an his Fidesz Party took over. Fidesz holds a huge majority and has used it to pass laws which border on undemocratic. Orban learned from the scandal of his predecessor not that he should be honest but that the media, who leaked the scandal, were dangerous and should be control. The new media laws in Hungary are effectively censorship (newspapers published blank front pages in protest when the law passed). Now, Orban is updating the Soviet era constitution and using his super-majority to instill his right-wing political values upon the constitution itself.

Orban's less than democratic tendencies have been roundly criticized by his European neighbours. Their is increasing talk in Europe of Hungary verging on dictatorship. I don't necessarily disagree, I do it find it somewhat hypocritical considering the massive democratic deficit being exposed by the European financial crisis. Take Italy. Please someone take Italy. Italy has had a democratic deficit for a while. Any country being run by a man who is both the richest man in the country and the owner of the largest media empire in the country as Italy was under Silvio Berlusconi is not exactly a paragon of democratic virtue. Now, Italy faces a new democratic deficit. The Prime Minister Mario Monti is described as a technocrat. He has appointed a cabinet without including a single parliamentarian contrary to Italian tradition (this isn't the US). Monti's austerity agenda is being pushed through parliament at the point of a gun. Any time the Italian parliament questions Monti's plan he threatens economic doom and gloom and the markets back him up by raising Italy's lending costs. The parliament has been effectively neutered. The question here is not whether or not Mario Monti is doing the right thing for Italy. Frankly, there aren't a lot of good options right now and his plans look about as good as anything else. The question is how exactly can we call this democracy. Yes, technically Monti is democratically legitimate. He holds the confidence of the Italian parliament and the parliament was duly elected. However, when the parliament's confidence seems to be built solely on fear it becomes murkier as to how democratically legitimate that confidence is.

This is how democracy is fading away all over Europe. It isn't that there aren't free and fair elections; there are. However, big decisions are increasingly being made either at the less than democratic European level or being pushed through less than enthusiastic parliaments under a cloud of fear. The EU which has brought peace to Europe, increasingly threatens its democracy. In Greece, George Papandreou's attempts to bring austerity measures to a referendum were snuffed out by furious fellow EU leaders. The most recent treaty updating the EU's structure was quickly pushed through parliaments after it failed miserably in referenda. I'm no fan of direct democracy but if you do go to the people and they say no, you better damn well listen. European governments are increasingly unable to act in the best of interest of their own people because of restraints imposed by Brussels. To be clear I'm talking about the only government that seems to function in Brussels. That would be the European one not the Belgian government which was finally formed last month a mere 589 days after the last election in June of 2010. As the economic imposes more and more upon European governments, one wonders whether or not when this crisis clears, whether those governments will be able to regain their democratic legitimacy.

This threat to democracy is far more dangerous than an IMF Structural Adjustment Program or similar program like the kind imposed on Argentina after its economic collapse. The IMF has no real place in a functioning economy. Once the economy is back on its feet and the loans are being repaid, the country can do as it pleases. The IMF has no power to stop a government from making decisions it disagrees with in good economic times. The EU is a far more integrated institution that seems to build itself on mission creep. The European Union's natural growth seems to stem from moments of crisis when governments decide to let the EU handle a problem. This wouldn't be an issue if the EU was viewed as even vaguely being a democratic institution. It is responsive to its member governments to a certain extent, but its connections to the people, mostly through the joke that is the European Parliament, are weak on a good day. If people believe that decisions are being made by a government over which they have no control, there is no point in protesting like Hungarians did back in 2006. There's not even much point in voting. Democracy will die a slow death.

If the Facts Don't Fit Your Narrative...

2011-12-22T01:45:00.000-05:00

Just ignore the facts. The Globe and Mail ran a story yesterday on its front page about how the West and in particular Saskatchewan is drawing more and more immigrants away from Ontario. The story is one of many in a media narrative that mighty Ontario is in decline. The impetus for this particular piece was, at least in theory, release of third quarter immigration stats from StatsCan. What amazed me about the story was how few actual numbers accompanied the dribble about Saskatoon being a boom town, so I decided to get the numbers. First, the national picture:

International Net Migration (2011):

Q1: 49,372
Q2: 79,020
Q3: 78,457

It is useful to note at this point that these numbers are down significantly from recent years. We haven't been below 80k in the second or third quarter since 2007. Now for the "dreary" picture out of Ontario (which accounts for just under 39% of Canada's population):

International Net Migration (2011):

Q1: 22,229 (45%)
Q2: 31,792 (40%)
Q3: 33,733 (43%)

As you can see, Ontario actually increased in both real terms AND in terms of national share the number of international immigrants coming in from Q2 to Q3, but I'm sure you would've realized that by reading the article. Apparently, the other prudent "new" stat is that Ontarians are leaving for greener pastures. This would have been true... if it weren't for those pesky statisticians

Interprovincial Net Migration (Ontario, 2011):

Q1: -690
Q2: -1880
Q3: 543

The third quarter of 2011 actually saw Ontario have a positive interprovincial migration number for the first time in years. While Saskatchewan did have a big month in terms of migration, the loser in this situation was actually Quebec which saw its immigration decline from 19,657 in Q2 to 11,893 in Q3. None of this of course fits the "centre of power is moving from Toronto to Calgary" narrative so it can be safely ignored.

Stop Gouging Canadian Consumers

2011-11-14T23:58:00.001-05:00

Stephen Harper is doing his best John Kerry impression, flip-flopping on his position on Canada's "supply management" program for dairy and poultry products. Supply Management is one of those fancy terms governments use to avoid saying "gouge the consumer." Stephen Harper claims to support the free market. He even supports the free market for agriculture (when it comes to dismantling the Canadian Wheat Board), so why does he maintain a practice which costs Canadians thousands of dollars a year in food costs? Canada's practice on dairy and poultry is to restrict the importation of dairy and poultry products through the use of a Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ). A TRQ, for the uninitiated, is an update to the now outlawed quota system. A quota system restricts the amount of goods that importers may bring into the country, full stop. A Tariff Rate Quota system restricts the amount of goods that importers can bring into the country at a reasonable tariff rate. After the quota is exhausted, the duty rate for poultry and dairy products is over 250%. This TRQ system allows the government to artificially maintain a high price for eggs, milk, chicken, butter and cheese in the Canadian marketplace.

Under this system, a tiny number of dairy and poultry farmers (often large factory farms) benefit while Canadians pay prices well above the market rate for basic groceries. It is the kind of classic distortion of the free market that should make red-blooded conservatives like Mr. Harper furious. However, Canadian politicians are too scared to stand up to the farmers. Yes,"Farms Feed Cities" but never forget that Cities Pay Farmers, Clothe Farmers, Build Farm Equipment for Farmers... well, you get the point. There are large numbers of Canadian farmers, perhaps even some dairy and poultry farmers, that can prosper in a free market. The government needs to stand up for Canadian consumers and put an end to this absurd relic. It is bad for Canadian consumers, impedes the potential signing of a hugely beneficial free trade deal in the Pacific and contributes to the stagnation of developing economies who find their products barred entry from developed world markets by such prejudicial practices.

Submitted Without Commentary

2011-10-24T00:05:00.000-04:00

Number of people per seat under Harper's new plan (per StatsCan Q2 2011 Estimates):

PEI: 36,464
Newfoundland and Labrador: 72,940
New Brunswick: 75,546
Saskatchewan: 75,563
Nova Scotia: 85,949
Manitoba: 89,327
Québec: 103,631
Alberta: 111,157
British Columbia: 111,544
Ontario: 112, 778

Occupy Main Street

2011-10-14T00:16:00.002-04:00

The protests that have broken out south of the border and are apparently moving north are misguided in their rage. What people remember about the financial meltdown of 2008 was the crashing of the market, the credit crisis and the bank bailouts. They seem to forget that while the banks were certainly a major player in the financial disaster, they were nowhere near alone. I remember shortly after the meltdown CNN was ran some overly dramatic top ten villains of the financial crisis. On the list Ali Velshi presented back then was the American People. They should not be forgotten. The current financial mess is not a result of the rich becoming too rich. It's a result of the average American trying to act like the rich.

The financial crisis of 2008 was upon any amount of sober reflection about the unrealistic expectation of the American dream. For the last twenty years, Americans convinced themselves and their politicians that everyone should have the house in the suburbs with the white picket fence the 2.5 kids and the 1.5 pets. Maybe not my dream, but for a lot of Americans it was the dream, and one that they felt entitled to realize it. Government responded to demand by encouraging home ownership and loosening mortgage rules. Banks responded by loosening lending rules and finding creative instruments to try to water down the worst of the debt. Asset backed credit paper is not a bad idea if you properly assess the risk of the product. The crisis was because no one saw the true value of the product and the underlying mortgages (or at least very few saw it). A society deluded itself that you could own your dream home on minimum wage. The banks were among the deluded. Singling out the banks for outrage doesn't make any sense. You certainly can't blame them because Congress decided to bail them out. Blame Congress. What did you think the banks were going to turn Congress down? The entire society is to blame for the financial mess, no amount of scapegoating will change that.

Being angry with the rich is not productive. Then again, protests rarely are productive. Bluntly, collective consensus driven mobs don't have a great history of affecting change. Particularly, when they have no idea what they want. Yes, there is a growing gap between the very rich and the rest of the country. What should Americans or Canadians do about that? The accumulation of wealth in the hands of a small minority may be discomforting but in a capitalist democratic society, there isn't much that can be done. I don't think there are a lot of people in downtown New York who want to seize the assets of the rich in spite of the "occupy" tone. After all, they didn't loot the Upper East Side, they just walked by angrily. If the protestors want to raise taxes a couple points on the wealthiest Americans, then they should get out of New York, go down to Washington or better yet their local congressional campaign office and start lobbying for change. Urban camping will not close the income gap or restart the economy (okay, maybe a slight boost to the urban camping industry). If the protestors feel disenfranchised and disconnected from their country, they should exercise their franchise and connect. Sitting outside in the cold won't get them anywhere.

Ontario's Back to the Future Election

2011-10-08T00:01:00.002-04:00

It was a strange night on Thursday as Ontario re-elected Dalton McGuinty's Liberals to another term at Queen's Park. Much has been made that the majority is over and that the Premier should be chastened by the result. Yes, McGuinty lost votes from his obliteration of the inept John Tory in 2007. It would have been virtually impossible for a Liberal leader to do better than he did 2007. If the Grits had won 3 more seats and were sitting with a relatively stable majority, this would be viewed as a win of historic proportion. Even without the majority it is still an historic win. Historic, yes, because the last Liberal leader to do it was the great Oliver Mowatt but mostly because it represents a real defining moment not for the Liberal Goverment but for the Progressive Conservative opposition.

Tim Hudak had an awful night on Thursday. He had the extraordinary good fortune of having the extremely low benchmark of John Tory to exceed. Otherwise, Tim Hudak would have probably had to resign last night. He isn't under tremendous pressure today because PC's are content to have a leader who was at very least able to unite his party's base behind him. The base came out in droves. The Tories were able to win huge victories in rural Ontario on the strength of Hudak's anti-Green energy act platform. Absolute majorities (over 70% for John Yakabuski) in rural ridings helped prop up the PC's share of the popular vote. What it masked was a disastrous night for Tim Hudak's Tories in the GTA. The Tories failed to win a single seat in Mississauga or Brampton. They didn't come close in Toronto. This isn't a coincidence. Tim Hudak ran a campaign targeted in Rural Ontario and won in Rural Ontario. He failed to speak to urban voters and lost decisively in the GTA. As the Premier said, Hudak seemed to want to take the province back to some point in the golden past. This wins votes on the farm, not in the city.

Why is this such a disaster? Well, the 2011 census is now complete. Since the provincial legislature south of the French River is dictated by how Elections Canada draws the new federal maps and Stephen Harper has promised Ontario a more accurate slice of the pie in the new alignment, there will likely be a whole bunch of new ridings on the electoral map come sometime in 2013, 18 more according to one Harper plan. These ridings won't be in a farmer's field either. According to the projections I ran last year, 10 of the new ridings will be in the 905 largely in Mississauga, Brampton and Markham (three places the Tories didn't win a seat). Another couple ridings will be in Toronto itself. That leaves just six ridings outside of the GTA versus twelve within. This means that if the same election results were played out on the new map, the Liberals would probably have the majority they crave.

Direct Democracy Fails British Columbia

2011-08-27T00:52:00.002-04:00

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, direct democracy doesn't work. With apologies to Kent Brockman, the result of the HST referendum demonstrates why direct democracy is a terrible way to determine public policy. The argument here is not necessarily about the HST itself. I happen to like the idea. I think it creates a simpler and less obtuse business environment. That's actually not the point. The point is that governments will have to do unpopular things in the course of doing what is best for the long term success of the country, province or city. The GST is an excellent example. Extremely unpopular when it was introduced and still unpopular today, the GST is a major contributing factor to Canada's relative fiscal strength today and our fiscal strength during the Chretien and Martin governments. In fact, it was Stephen Harper's cuts to the GST which first compromised our surplus position. If the people had been able to vote directly, the GST would never have been introduced, would have been recalled in 1993 and every year subsequent.

We elect governments because a) 34 million people can't come to agreements in any sort of town hall way and b) because we don't have the time to govern. Canadians are too busy working and taking care of their families to consider the long term fiscal and economic implications of doing something like scrapping the HST. We pay our politicians and civil servants to study these things and come to a decision. Yes, periodically we choose which path we want the government to be on, but we can't as a people make the little calls along the way. British Columbians may be celebrating the death of the HST but they should take a long hard look at their cousins in California before they go too far down this path. People, if asked directly will almost always vote for lower taxes and better services. This is a path that leads only to fiscal ruin. We elect governments to make the tough choices necessary to get to a better future. If they fail in that task, vote them out and elect somebody who will undo the damage. There was no reason the NDP couldn't have run on this platform, won and then repealed the HST. However, they would have done that knowing that they would be held responsible for the ensuing budget deficits and fiscal problems that. No one will hold the people of BC responsible for their blunder. Democracy without any responsibility for bad action leads only to chaos.

Death of a Leader

2011-08-23T23:48:00.002-04:00

The Member of Parliament for Toronto-Danforth is dead. Jack Layton's life was cut short far too quickly. My heartfelt condolences to his family and friends. Jack Layton was for better or worse a dominant force in Toronto politics for the last thirty years. Jack Layton served the people of Toronto-Danforth since 1982 as either city councilor or as member of parliament and he died doing so. Any person with that kind of devotion to public service should be applauded. Let us celebrate the life of a man committed to serving the people of Canada.

A Deficit of Progress

2011-07-29T00:59:00.002-04:00

That the United States should find itself in this position is not exactly unexpected. The US Congress has been loathe these last 10 years to pay for the foreign adventures, tax cuts and new entitlements that they have proven all too willing to fund. The thing is the chickens have not yet come home to roost. Instead, the Republican party and perhaps more specifically the TEA party wing of the Republican party seems bound and determined to bring the roost to the unsuspecting chickens. The roost in this strange avian metaphor is the limit on the US national debt and the chickens are the unfortunate people to whom the US owes money. Yesterday, in the latest bureaucratic twist in this absurd tale of self-inflicted economic destruction, Republican members of Congress refused to back a bill put forth by Speaker Boehner designed to little else than make the people voting for it look good to their constituents come 2012. Basically, this was Boehner's attempt to ensure that he would have something to placate his base with when it came time for the actual compromise still to be determined. In the crazy world that is current US politics even stunt bills can die on arrival.

There is an increasing likelihood that the US will fail to raise its debt ceiling. The shortening timeline and lack of any sort of progress make it more and more likely that nothing will get done. The real question is how will the markets react to a failure to raise the debt ceiling and therefore a de facto default on US debt. Let's be clear bond holders will get paid, at least in the short term. The US Treasury will turn off the lights at the White House before they fail to pay off their bonds. However, the market will view a failure to raise the debt ceiling as a default and will look to move its money away from the contaminated American market. The question will be which market comes under attack first? There are four options for the market to vent its spleen:

Ditch US Stocks: This option is the one that will immediately translate to the American people and perhaps even their elected officials in Washington. A 500 to 1000 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average may be enough to shock the Congress into action. This actually might be the best case scenario as faith in stocks is easily restored and there are mechanisms to easily halt trade.
Sell US Bonds in the Secondary Market: This is also a fairly painless option. The price of US bonds in the secondary market has very little impact on the US treasury directly. If people are paying 90 or 85 cents on the dollar for 30 year US bonds issued 10 years ago, the market can handle that. The problem is that directly impacts the next option:
Refuse to buy new US bonds: Okay, technically with the debt ceiling capped the US can't issue new debt. However, they do perennially turn over old debt (I believe the next major batch is scheduled to be in the middle of August). If the debt ceiling is not raised, the market will undoubtedly demand a premium well above the historically low interest rates available today. A run on US bonds in the secondary market would probably trigger massive interest rate hikes to try to stem the tide and make the new bonds marketable.
A Run on the US Dollar: Investors may decide that the easiest way to get away from the risk inherent in the US market is to sell greenbacks and fast. A run on the green back would cause massive inflation and also force the Fed to raise interest rates to try to beat back the barbarians at the gates. A run on the US dollar is the worst case scenario as it would cripple the US market with inflation and cause untold disaster in the rest of the world.

The reason I ask which option the market will choose is because it may prove very difficult to do all four at once. Put simply, if you want to sell US stocks and bonds and at the same time sell US currency you need something to get back. While money will flow into all sorts of currencies and markets - Canadian Dollars, Japanese Yen, even Euros - there's no real precedent for the market trying to dump its reserve currency. This is particularly true because a large number of the major sellers are in the United States. The worst impact of this political inaction may not be felt immediately simply because the markets may struggle to punish the US fast enough.

The Canadian Economy's Strange Success

2011-06-13T00:42:00.002-04:00

On Friday, Statscan reported that the Canadian economy added another 22,000 jobs in May and that the unemployment rate fell to 7.4%. The economy grew in the first quarter at a healthy annualized clip of 3.9% and according again to statscan it did so in all the right way. Huge investments made in plants, machinery and equipment points to a growth in manufacturing and other goods producing industries. Service industries like retail trade actually shrank. Growth due to personal spending (an indicator of a possible debt bubble if too large) was negligible in spite of all the stories about Canadians carrying too much debt. This is all remarkably good news. In fact, it's so remarkable, no one seems to believe it. Unemployment in Canada being at 7.4% is actually, historically, pretty darn normal. This is not great recession catastrophic unemployment. In really good times Canadian unemployment is between six and seven percent. GDP growth between 3 and 4% is also pretty darn good. It isn't BRIC double digit expansion or anything but it's enough to keep people working.

Why then, you might ask, has the Bank of Canada not moved interest rates closer to a normal level? There doesn't seem to be the need for big stimulus. Nor it would seem is there cause for governments to delay tackling their recession exacerbated massive deficits. The Canadian economy could actually probably withstand a little austerity right now. I think the short answer may be that Canadian officials both political and bureaucratic can't believe the good times can last. They can't believe it, because they see the carnage that continues to be the US economy. American unemployment, usually a couple of points below Canada in good times, sits a couple points above. The jobs report for May showed only about 50k created (that would translate to about 5-6k in Canada pro-rated to the population) which is not enough to keep up with the growing labour market. The housing market, which continues to boom north of the 49th, is on life support down south. What we are witnessing is complete disconnect between the economic fortunes of Canada and United States. All this and the loonie is worth more than the greenback. Ottawa and Bay St. can't believe it.

Marine Le Pen Fiddles as Europe Burns

2011-05-17T00:17:00.002-04:00

Dominique Strauss-Kahn was arrested over the weekend and accused of very serious crimes. Like all people in free countries he is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law and bluntly this isn't a law blog. This is a politics blog and innocent or guilty M. Strauss-Kahn is dead in the water politically. This presents a new political landscape for French politics and current French President Nicolas Sarkozy. While Strauss-Kahn would have been hard-pressed to oppose the bailouts of weaker EU partners like Greece and Portugal, his next strongest opponent is vehemently opposed. Marine Le Pen, who succeeded her father Jean-Marie Le Pen as leader of Front National now finds herself well placed to repeat her father's shock second place finish in the 2002 presidential race when he edged out the Socialists to claim a spot in the run off.

While the robotic Mme Royal is gone, the options for socialist leadership go down hill dramatically after Strauss-Kahn. The frontrunner no is the runner-up to Mme. Royal last time out Martine Aubry who holds the dubious distinction of losing, albeit barely, to Segolene Royal. The socialists in France have been in the political wilderness for a decade and Mme. Aubry does not appear to be the woman to lead them back. This leads the door open to the kinder, gentler racist xenophobe: Marine Le Pen. This is still Front National we're talking about but Marine Le Pen doesn't have quite the same evil look that her father did. She might make people forget for a couple minutes that the party she represents still supports deporting unemployed immigrants even if she doesn't believe in deporting all immigrants anymore. The point of all this is that if Sarko believes that his principal opposition in 2012 is from Mme. Le Pen he might start cooling even further to any more money for Euro-delinquents. Yet another reason why the Front National is a bad thing. In case you needed one.

Democracy Delayed is Democracy Denied

2011-05-17T00:03:00.003-04:00

The executive of the Liberal Party of Canada has learned nothing from the crushing electoral defeat endured by the party on May 2nd. They haven't learned that the leader of a political party should be chosen by the membership of the party without any interference from the executive. The executive in 2008 appointed Michael Ignatieff leader of the party so they could prevent those stupid and pesky party members from choosing someone else again like they did in 2006. Now, they seek again to delay the election of the next leadership so that the membership doesn't make another mistake. A reminder: repeating the 2006 mistake would more than double the size of the Liberal caucus. The executive should let the leadership run its prescribed constitutional course there is no reason for delay.

Let me be very clear on this matter. I do not support Bob Rae. I will not support Bob Rae. I think Bob Rae is most likely to lead the party into a disastrous merger with the NDP or into political oblivion. That doesn't mean we should try to flip the chess board when it looks like he might be winning. Liberals need to have an open discussion this summer about who they want to lead their party. At the end of that discussion, we can only hope that Bob Rae isn't the answer. It is up to people who don't support Bob Rae to make that case. To make the case that their are better alternatives, whomever they may be.

The next Liberal leader has a lot of work to do. The party is in shambles. The grassroots are torches and sown with salt. There is a huge enthusiasm gap. These problems will not take weeks or months to fix. They will take years. Luckily, we have years. About 4 and a half years to figure out how to rebuild this great Canadian institution. Let's get a leader prepared to get down to work, not getting ready to collect old age security and let's get her or him elected as soon as possible. While the NDP and Tories fight each other in the commons and on the airwaves we can begin the task of rebuilding the big red machine. One cog at a time.

Note on Failed Projection Model

2011-05-03T23:42:00.002-04:00

My projection for the election was wrong. Like off by 100+ seats wrong if you add up all the differences in seat counts. I'll start by saying that. But I don't actually dismiss my model. Here's why:

First, I'm mostly wrong in Quebec where I had the Bloc holding on and the NDP surge far less overwhelming. This is somewhat predictable, in fact, I basically said I thought I was wrong there when I put out my first projection for the province. My model is based on previous results so when the new result or poll is completely divorced from the previous reality it's not likely that the change will show up in large scale. It is inherently conservative, in the small c meaning of the word and most nights in Canadian politics that's not a bad thing. This year, it was a millstone.

The other reason for underestimating the size of the NDP surge is the lateness of the surge and how that screws up my polling aggregate. My aggregate is designed to give the most weight to recent polls but it doesn't exclude old ones. I actually played around with my aggregate on the weekend to try get something that would look close to what was going to happen. The closest I got adding weight to new polls and weakening old ones without completely fudging the numbers was CPC 37, NDP 28.5, LPC 22, BQ 6.5, GPC 5. Low for the Tories and Dippers, high for everybody else. Probably this weekend I'm going to use the real election results as a dummy poll in my model and see what would happen. That will be a better test of my model as a tool for extrapolating poll results which is what it is designed to do. If I get closer, especially outside of Quebec which might be a write-off, I think I'll have a little more faith in my methodology. It's all kind of moot as seat projection on a riding-by-riding basis like I have becomes a lot more difficult once the House gets reconfigured to match the new census as it should be the next time Canadians vote in 2015. I'm not sure how I can incorporate it into the model. Suggestions always welcome.

I Knew It Was A Bad Night When...

2011-05-03T00:22:00.002-04:00

They announced the Liberals had lost Labrador. We've never lost Labrador. EVER. We've held Labrador since 1948. Mr. Ignatieff, the Mondale School of Failed Leadership called, they have an opening for you.

Final Projection

2011-05-01T21:04:00.001-04:00

Here's what's going to happen... I guess you can vote if you want:

	CPC	LPC	NDP	BQ	IND
National	150	50	62	45	1
NL	1	4	2	0	0
PE	0	4	0	0	0
NS	2	3	6	0	0
NB	6	3	1	0	0
QC	8	9	12	45	1
ON	59	26	21	0	0
MB	9	1	4	0	0
SK	12	1	1	0	0
AB	27	0	1	0	0
BC	22	1	13	0	0
North	1	1	1	0	0

Are Voters Actually Paying Attention?

2011-04-27T00:16:00.003-04:00

Elections Canada is reporting high turnout in the advanced poll. Undoubtedly, this is largely due to the fact that the advanced poll fell over the Easter long weekend when people had time to get out and vote. I took advantage myself on Saturday, casting my ballot for Andrew Lang in Toronto-Danforth. If I have some time in the next couple of days, I may do some analysis on where the increased turnout was. I've just glanced at the data a few quick observations:

Helena Guergis may have more life in her than people think. Almost, 15,000 of the around 100,000 electors in Simcoe-Grey turned out to vote. Only about 60k have voted in the last three elections. That makes 15% turnout in the advanced impressive.
The long weekend certainly helped turn out the vote in the NCR. With all three advanced polls falling on federal holidays/weekends, turnout surged. Over 10k in Ottawa South, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa Orléans, and Gatineau . Almost 17k votes cast in Ottawa-West Nepean.
Advanced polls are not for everyone. Toronto has some shockingly low numbers. Less than 3k in York South Weston and York West. Even hotly contested Eglinton--Lawrence had just 7500 votes cast. One must remember that ridings within a province start relatively equal in total population, not in total number of voters. This means that while there are 114000 + people in York South Weston only around 67000 were eligible to vote as of the last election. Ridings like Simcoe-Grey with older populations and fewer new Canadians will usually have larger numbers of voters (97k out of 125k).

The Return of.... Seat Projections!

2011-04-24T22:32:00.004-04:00

Very exciting news boys and girls. I have resurrected my seat projections! If the election were called today, All Politics is Local projects: yet another Tory minority! The numbers for your interest:

	CPC	LPC	NDP	BQ	IND
National	147	83	35	42	1
NL	0	6	1	0	0
PE	0	4	0	0	0
NS	4	5	2	0	0
NB	6	3	1	0	0
QC	13	18	2	42	1
ON	52	39	15	0	0
MB	9	1	4	0	0
SK	13	1	0	0	0
AB	28	0	0	0	0
BC	22	5	9	0	0
North	1	1	1	0	0

I haven't run one of these in a while and frankly I think the data may be a spitting out a screwy result. The NDP surge in Quebec worries me, in terms of my accuracy. My model is better suited to slight shifts, not giant surges. Right now, my model is saying the NDP surge will come at the expense of the Bloc and might actually help the other two federalist parties. Could happen. The vote splits in Quebec will be fascinating come election night.

Goodluck, Goodluck

2011-04-19T00:21:00.003-04:00

In my ongoing quest not to have any readers, I'll continue my look at elections around the world that actually really matter, but no one in Canada seems to care about. Today, news that incumbent Nigerian President, Goodluck Jonathan has won re-election. This has caused rioting in the rebellious north. Nigeria has been in quasi-civil war for a while now. The Muslim population in the north which is actually the majority has ongoing conflicts with the oil controlling south which is predominantly Christian. Goodluck Jonathan is a southern Christian, which along with allegations of fraud explains the rioting. It's hard to classify the ongoing conflict in Nigeria, like the conflict in Sudan as purely religious or purely about oil or about something else entirely. What is true, is that it is ongoing and resolution does not appear to be close at hand.

However, geopolitically and economically we would do well to pay attention to Nigeria. First and foremost Nigeria is big. 155 million people call Nigeria home and Nigeria is very much at the centre of West African politics and African politics generally. Nigeria is also oil rich and as a member of OPEC provide oil to a large part of the Western world with oil (particularly the US). This oil wealth makes a stable Nigeria essential right now with the ongoing conflict in Libya already giving oil markets fits. The threat to the oil supply is real, as northern rebels often sabotage pipelines and take other steps to undermine the oil trade to make their political points. Goodluck Jonathan came to power after a very strange period of time when the last President was rumored to be dead and no one quite knew where he was. He now has his own mandate and hopefully will be able to bring order and peace to the 155 million people he now must govern.

EU Bailouts Finnished?

2011-04-18T00:23:00.002-04:00

While Canadians will go to the polls on May 2nd, Finns went to the polls yesterday and elected a new government. Well, actually they re-elected the existing government... well sort of. The leading party, the centre-right National Coalition Party won the most seats and will form government. How they form that government got a lot more complicated after their former allies the Centre Party lost 16 seats and no longer has the seats to prop up the government. The only real winner on the night were the True Finns who went from being marginal to the third largest party in what can be best described as a pizza parliament. The True Finns are yet another example of the xenophobic neo-nationalist parties gaining in popularity across Europe. Most problematic for the world outside of Finland is that the True Finns hate the EU and positively loathe the bailouts given to EU bankrupts Greece and Ireland. The True Finns want no part of further bailouts and with Portugal and Spain on the rocks, this is worrying because the Euro zone needs unanimity to approve the bailouts. It's a long way from Helsinki to Lisbon. That distance didn't get any shorter this weekend.

Can You Appease a Sleeping Giant?

2011-04-17T01:29:00.002-04:00

This weekend in Montreal the Parti Quebecois is holding a convention. They gave their leader Pauline Marois a 93% confidence vote. If any time in opposition can be considered good times, these are good times for the PQ. The Quebec Liberal Party and Premier Jean Charest are about as popular as the Boston Bruins. The widely held consensus among the pundits and prognosticators is that barring a major reversal of fortune, Pauline Marois will be elected as the new premier of Quebec in the next election. That election will likely take place sometime in the next 24 months. Yes, boys and girls the separatists will be back in power in Quebec by sometime in 2013. This means for the first time in a decade, the threat of separation will be wielded by a government in power.

Why mention this in the middle of a federal election? I mention this because our current federal leaders seem to have given up the good fight of selling the idea of Canada to Quebeckers. Mr. Harper who brought forward the sordid Quebec nation resolution five years ago has never believed in a strong federation and seems content to give away the store to try to avoid the issue. Mr. Layton wants to limit the use of English in federal offices in Quebec. For his appeasing and the personal popularity of presumed leader-in-waiting Thomas Mulcair, the NDP is in record territory in Quebec. Finally, and most distressing for me, the Liberal Party, the traditional defenders of this country as a country, as more than a collection of provinces is led by a man who seems almost sublimely unaware of the problem. Let us not forget that it was Mr. Ignatieff and his musings in 2006 that led to the nation resolution that M. Duceppe beat the other leaders over the head with during the debates this week. How will any of these leaders stand up and defend a united Canada if and when Mme. Marois takes Quebeckers back into a referendum after they've already conceded so much sovereignty already?

Jack Layton's Plan to Help Money Mart

2011-03-31T00:26:00.004-04:00

The NDP have the spectacular good fortune of never having to worry about actually implementing any of the policies they announce. Good thing too. Jack Layton's latest policy brain fart is a cap on credit card interest rates at something like 5 percentage points over prime. Sounds like a pretty good plan? Tired of getting hosed by greedy credit card companies/banks? Well, let's think what would actually happen if Layton's plan was to be put in place. As it is, Canadians put way too much on credit racking up monstrous credit card bills they are unable to pay off. One of the few disincentives for doing this is the absurd, and yes frankly near usurious, rate of interest applicable on outstanding credit card bills. If you remove that disincentive, chances are good that people will rack up more debt, maybe not in interest payments, but in larger purchases.

Banks will see this prospect and bluntly they won't like it. One of the reasons credit card interest rates are so high is that the risk of default is high. The high rate of return makes the cost/benefit analysis make sense for the owner of the debt be that a bank or a third party who purchased the debt. Eliminate the high rate of return and banks may prove a lot less likely to issue credit cards to people with marginal credit ratings... like people who don't pay off their credit cards every month. By forcing down interest rates, Layton may make credit cards a tool of the rich. Good you say? Credit cards are evil? Problem is as unfortunate as it may be, many Canadians rely on credit cards to make payments on essential items in between pay cheques. If the banks stopped giving these people credit cards, they would not stop having those cash shortages. Instead, working class Canadians who want access to easy credit would be forced to even more predatory places like payday loan offices. The only people who will actually benefit from this as far as I can tell are the good folks at Money Mart.

Dead on the Order Paper

2011-03-26T00:34:00.002-04:00

A list of bills that die when the writ is dropped follows. A remarkable number of these bills are becoming like Kenny on South Park, dead repeatedly:

C4 - Tougher sentencing on violent young offenders
C8 - Canada- Jordan Free Trade Agreement - I think this is dead for the third time
C10 - Senate Term Limits - Remember when Harper believed in Senate Reform?
C12 - Electoral reform to rejig provincial weights to reflect population - also a Kenny - now running out of time before the census comes out
C15 - Liability in the case of a nuclear accident - okay downright eerie
C16 - House Arrest Not Tough On Crime, Tories Tough on Crime... got that?
C17 - More Tough on Crime
C18 - Increase voter participation - maybe we should have gotten this passed this BEFORE having an election
C19 - Also election related. Candidates will be able to get loans to pay for their campaigns because this bill is dead on the order paper as well.
C21 - This bill is actually called Standing Up for Victims of White Collar Crime... when the Senate stands up, it dies
C22 - ISPs and Child Porn
C23 - see C16, in this case forgiveness (in the form of pardons) is no longer in keeping with conservative Christian values
C25 - Land use in Nunavut
C26 - Don't tell the council of Canadians this one died... fresh water protection
C27 - Wheat Board Reform - potential sleeper issue?
C32 - OMG they killed Copyright reform, those bastards!
C46 - Canada - Panama Free Trade Agreement - the Harper government must hold the record for most free trade deals killed on the order paper... at least they got the Colombia deal done this time
C49 - Smugglers, you know Iggy's buddies
C57 - Interprovincial trade

The list goes on. See in spite of appearances, politicians actually do make important decisions. Most of the above bills are far from perfect. It matters who gets to introduce legislation. It matters who passes bills.

A Most Necessary Election

2011-03-25T23:54:00.002-04:00

There are people in this country who believe that the election about to be called is unnecessary. That this election is about political posturing and not about the best interest of the Canadian people. They are wrong. The Harper government has proven repeatedly that it does not deserve the confidence of Canadians. Canadians should have the opportunity to express their lack of confidence. This government was elected because of a scandal that involved around $250 million being spent over the course of a number of years in ways that were seen to be more beneficial to the Liberal Party of Canada then the people of Canada. The Harper government has spent over $100 million in advertising in the last 15 months on ads that serve the Conservative Party of Canada and not the people of Canada. At this pace, by the time the "fixed" election date rolled around in the fall of 2012, the Tories would have spent more money on their self-serving ads than was spent in the entire sponsorship program. If their ethical dilemmas stopped there, perhaps something could have been worked out.

However, there is much more. A Conservative cabinet minister lies to the house, is caught in her lie and Stephen Harper allows her to stay on. He allows her to run under his party's banner in Durham. The Tories waste millions of taxpayers dollars trying to argue on a technicality that they didn't commit electoral fraud to win election in 2006. The people of Canada have spent $50 million trying to force the Tories to admit they effectively laundered money to avoid spending restrictions. Every day it seems, more scandals. A former aide to the Prime Minister uses his influence to get a sweetheart contract for his fiancee. This government has lied to Canadians, it has cheated Canadians and now we find out that they are willing to put the safety of the water supply in our most endangered communities at risk, if their friends can take a cut. Stephen Harper promised Canadians he would shore up the ethical shortcomings of Ottawa. He has failed to do so and Canadians should be able to take him to task.

Stephen Harper came to Ottawa promising to be prudent manager of the public purse. When he took office, the chief complaint about the budget was that the government was purposefully underestimating the size of the surplus. By the fall 2008, before Lehman Brothers collapsed and put the global economy into a tailspin, Canada was already running a deficit thanks to misguided tax cuts and wasteful spending. Given a carte blanche to try to spend their way out of a recession, the Tories have invested Canadians hard earned tax dollars and the hard earned tax dollars of their grandchildren on ephemeral projects instead of lasting infrastructure which will benefit Canadians for generation. A fake lake that didn't last more than a weekend. Fighter jets that will be obsolete upon delivery. A gazebo in the riding of Tony Clement that likely won't see out the decade. Lastly, the made sure that all this ephemeral spending was well known, printing out giant novelty cheques at taxpayers expense and slapping the Conservative Party logo on them. The Flaherty Conservatives have dug Canada a deep fiscal hole, it is time to take away Deficit Jim's shovel.

In 2006, Harper implored Canadians to stand up for Canada. Why, then, has this government failed to do so on the international stage. The Canadian people and their parliament told Stephen Harper that the troops had to be home by the summer of 2011. The Canadian military and their families implored the government to allow their war weary soldiers to rest from nine years of combat. The Harper government had an opportunity to stand up for Canada and say no to international pressure. The Harper government caved to American pressure. The Harper government in the face of a mounting deficit had the opportunity to get out of a costly military procurement project that will burden generations with its ever growing costs. They could have stood up for Canada. Instead they caved to American pressure.

This government received a mandate from the Canadian people based on promises that they made. They have broken those promises. They have failed the Canadian people. It is time for the Canadian people to decide if they still should have the right to govern this country. We all have a say in this. I say no.

Ford's Pipe Dream and Toronto's Transit Needs

2011-02-22T00:14:00.003-05:00

Or I guess I should say tunnel dream. For those of you who are uninitiated in the Toronto's transit woes. Here's the deal. The old mayor of Toronto, NDPer David Miller, wanted to build a whole bunch of above ground light rail train lines all around the cities periphery along with one buried LRT line along Eglinton. The new mayor, gravy train hater, Rob Ford, wants to abandon the above rail LRT lines and finish the infrastructure project of the last right wing mayor, Mel Lastman: namely, the Sheppard Subway. See, Ford actually has a point. The current Sheppard line is a joke. It runs a total of five stops and connects with just one other line. Logic would seem to dictate that is should at least connect to the University/Spadina line stop at Downsview if not the Scarborough RT. The problem is subways are bleepin' expensive.

This is why we really, really can't afford tax cuts like the GST cuts made by Harper. Canada's big cities have a colossal infrastructure deficit. Toronto doesn't need just the Sheppard line. It need two or three new lines. There's a chicken and egg argument to be had about subways and population/demand. Opponents of subways on Sheppard say that the population doesn't warrant the expense. That may be true... right now. Anyone who has lived in this city can tell you though that Sheppard, particularly the section along the subway route, has been a major locus of new Condo/Apartment construction in the last decade. People want to live on the subway. This city is expensive to begin with, parking is a nightmare and expensive in and of itself and the traffic, well, you can't get much worse. Many people if given the choice of commuting by subway or by car will choose subway. That doesn't apply necessarily to buses and streetcars that involve waiting outside in sub-zero temperatures for erratic service. There is a certain element of "if you build they will come" with subways.

In some cases, this city already has the population to warrant a subway. I'm going to make a case for one that doesn't get talked about. Have you looked at the Toronto skyline lately? Do you see all those towers west of the CN Tower? That is called population density: new population to be specific. Exactly the kind of thing that would justify a lake shore based subway line. Anyone who has tried to get on the King or Queen streetcar at rush hour knows the problems that exist trying to get east/west in Toronto. It's only going to get more crowded with the opening of the west don lands and more and more condos along king and queen. Think about the areas and attractions (this would be a great line for tourist) a lake shore line could cover with only a fraction of the stops on Bloor.

Start with a stop in the east with the lovely but inaccessible Beach. Parking is a nightmare out on Queen East for both visitors and residents, a subway with below grade stations would preserve the neighbourhood feel while granting access to the rest of the city.
Up and coming Leslieville could also get a stop east of the river.
Cross the river and head down to King and Parliament for a stop in burgeoning Corktown
Followed by a stop for George Brown College and the St. Lawrence Market at either Sherbourne or Jarvis.
Links with the Yonge-University-Spadina line at Yonge and
University would integrate the system and provide further access to attractions like the Rogers Centre and CN Tower downtown.
From there, you could either go down to Harbourfont Centre or head along King and to trendy King West and the new TIFF Lightbox.
King and Bathurst would pick up the rest of King West
King and Dufferin for the burgeoning Liberty Village and easy access to the Exhibition and Ricoh Colliseum, and BMO Field.
From here, follow the lake and the towers. One or two more stops out west would draw people off the Gardiner, and ease congestion downtown.

Building subways in Toronto's core is a rough political sell these days but if we're going to spend money on a subway, this is where the people are and are going to continue to be.

Bev Oda's Saramago Moment

2011-02-17T01:06:00.002-05:00

The late Jose Saramago, the Portuguese Nobel winning author, wrote a book called The History of the Siege of Lisbon. The book centers around the decision of a proofreader to edit the book and history by inserting a tiny little "not" at a crucial turning point of the siege. The book evolves into a punctuation deprived story about it never being too late for love. It is really quite excellent. Go read it. Anyway, there's a political point to the book report. When I heard about the absurd Bev Oda, CIDA thing I immediately thought of Saramago's book. Saramago makes the point quite eloquently that it is the little things, the "not's" of the world, that make all the difference. It is the little things that make Stephen Harper a poor Prime Minister.

Harper has avoided the major political blunders. He's made some bad decisions for the country (hello, GST cuts) but he has avoided the big political decisions that make people get angry and stay angry. The Harper government has been defined by the insertion of a bunch of little negatives into Canadian life. Extending the mission in Afghanistan? Not really a major change in policy (10 years or 12 years, it's a long time). The Quebec nation resolution? It's just a resolution. Waiting for the Americans on climate change? Well, it would have been tough to go it alone. It's been a subtle shift, not the soldiers... in our streets... with guns that Paul Martin warned us about. This has proven a challenge for the Liberals in opposition. We can only hope that getting caught red-handed on something like this will help to turn people on to the slow drip of disaster Harper has been unleashing on this country.

Is Bill C-12 About To Die of Old Age?

2011-01-18T23:43:00.004-05:00

While the house is still on vacation, it is not, for once, prorogued. That means there are still bills waiting for them when they get back. One of those bills is Bill C-12 which the Tories are calling the Democratic Representation Act. This is the one that would give increased representation in the house to large provinces like Ontario, Alberta and BC which have seen large population increases. Interestingly, the language of the bill if not amended could make the bill completely ineffective for 10 years if not passed soon.

The readjustment of the seats in the House of Commons happens after each decennial census (the ones ending in 1). That's not new. However, the Democratic Representation Act is only to take effect following the first decennial census completed AFTER its passage. In other words, if parliament doesn't pass the bill soon, it would only be effective after 2021 census. Of course, the Tories could amend the bill to fix this problem, but don't bet on it. More likely, they'll use the excuse to shelve the bill and come back with an even less effective plan that appease Québec more.

Strange Weekend News

2011-01-14T23:17:00.002-05:00

Quick run down of things catching my eye this weekend:

Revolution in an Arab North African country... this could be really good or well, awful
On a lighter note, archaeologists appear to have found Noah's stash. No I don't think this is actually a biblical cave but it is eerily close to Mount Ararat.
John Stewart's pick for the RNC Chair has won election. Frankly, this may be a poisoned chalice. The RNC hasn't been able to fundraise effectively for about five years. The GOP's inability to get cash may be the most under-reported political news story out there.
I didn't know it was possible to not be able to sell real estate in Vancouver.
Is it me or is Rob Ford starting to like the taste of gravy, or at least the sound of trains?
With the French Socialist party a fading force and Sarkozy increasingly unpopular, this is scary.
Andrew Coyne wants the government to track your every movement. Apparently, Big Brother is way better than a little bit of traffic.
When you cry wolf too often, you tend to lose some sheep. I'm increasing convinced that the World Health Organization may be a detriment to humanity.

Walks Like A Duck, Talks Like A Duck, Statistically: Chicken

2011-01-12T23:36:00.001-05:00

I turned on The Agenda on TVO last night and saw U of T prof David Hulchanski talking about his much publicized report on what he perceives as a growing income disparity in Toronto. It reminded me personally of why I never pursued post-graduate work and also how much I disagree with his report. Dr. Hulchanski received a mandate from a poverty-activist type place to do a report on income disparity in Toronto. Shockingly, the report says there is a problem and its getting worse! AHHHH! Sound the alarms! Lou Dobbs was right! The middle class is dying... sorry... I forgot to disable the panic button.

The problem with Dr. Hulchanski's report is that the numbers are rigged in his favour. Every elementary school child is taught the difference between a median and a mean. That child could tell the Dr. Hulchanski that a bunch of very big numbers in a group can really throw off a mean. That's essentially what has happened in Toronto. It's not really that there are a whole host of poorer Torontonians, in fact if you ran the numbers a different way you might even say people are generally a lot more comfortable than they were forty years ago. No, the biggest difference is how much money is being at the made at the top. According to the report, the top 20% earned about 55k per capita in the 1970's and 104k per capita in the 2000's. That growth in the earnings of the top percentages of Canadians is not exactly news to anyone. It completely distorts the numbers on the rest of the report. For his 70's baseline, the top group, those earning more than 40% above mean wages, was about 13% of the total pie. For his sky is falling modern numbers, the same group represents 36% of the total pie. The number of people represented in this group has gone from 7% to 13%. In other words, this group has about a 50% larger disproportionate effect on the mean today vs the baseline.

If you look at the report, the middle class has primarily eroded into the group 20 to 40% below the mean. That group in 1970 when, remember, there was likely only one person working in the household, was $22,300 per person. The so called middle class number was $29,800. Now, when there are likely two people working in a household, the number is $28,000. The question is as a household, would you rather have 30k a year in 1970 or 55k a year in 2005? While the 30k forty years ago is probably preferable, it isn't as much as a slam dunk as the authors of the report would like you to think.

Taking percentages off a mean can do really strange things. For the final graphs, the ones plastered all over the newspapers, they took three groups: people within 20% of the mean, people 20% or more above the mean and people 20% or more below the mean. So what does that actually equate to in dollar-terms? Your average middle class household straddle the narrow band between $32,500 and $48,840. Anyone making more than 49k is sent into the upper class and anyone making less than $32,500 is all of a sudden a pauper. Remember: this is per capita. So, if you are a successful professional making $150,000/annum and you support a spouse and three children alone on that income: your household is in the dreaded "third city" because per capita your household only makes 30k. By the same count a single TTC driver making 50K is in the first city. When your statistics are yielding that kind of crazy result, it's time to consider changing your methodology. Maybe household income would have been a better measuring stick? Maybe a median would have proved more accurate? I am generally pretty down on modern academia and this report only emphasizes the problem. Any system where this kind of statistical manipulation can not only pass as legitimate but be promoted and celebrated is fundamentally broken.

10 Events to Watch in 2011

2011-01-01T23:13:00.002-05:00

Not sure what 2011 holds in store for political geeks? Here's a quick rundown:

10. Prairie Punch-ups: Manitoba and Saskatchewan will both go to the polls this fall. Premier Brad Wall will face the voters in November trying to win re-election for the Saskatchewan Party. Wall's popularity and power seem to be at all time highs making an NDP win here highly unlikely. Over in Manitoba, Greg Selinger, who may be the least known premier in the country, will try to win his first election after taking over for now Ambassador Gary Doer. The NDP may have a tougher test on their hands this time around as early polling shows the PC's under Hugh McFadyen ahead. There is a long list of first ministers who have taken over while their party was in power and have subsequently lost their first election. Selinger's name might get added to the list in October.

9. The King is Dead, Long Live the Queen?: Danny Williams made a national name for himself as premier, his successor has big shoes to fill. They won't have a long time to work out the blisters as Newfoundland and Labrador head to the polls on October 11th. With Kathy Dunderdale seeking the PC leadership, there is a possibility of having an election where the leaders of all three major parties are led by a woman. If it happens, Chantal Hebert will probably complain that Newfies rejected two female leaders.

8. Rand Paul Turns Into a Pumpkin at Midnight: The Tea Party will have its biggest test early this year as Tea Party sweethearts like Ricky Rubio and Rand Paul will have the opportunity to literally stop the US government from taking on more debt. The Congress actually has to pass a law in order to raise the debt ceiling. A filibuster from Paul or Rubio could theoretically derail the US government and much of the world's economy. Governing can do some strange things to principles and this vote will put it to the test.

7. Endless Federal Election Speculation: You can make an excellent case that now is as good a time as any to hold a federal election. You can also make an excellent case that there's absolutely no point in holding a federal election right now. Which one of these arguments holds currency with Jack Layton and Michael Ignatieff this year will determine whether or not we have an election. With four provincial and two territorial elections scheduled for the fall, expect the spring budget debates to be the focal point of the speculation.

6. Can a Sudanese House Divided, Stand? Southern Sudan will hold a referendum in 2011 to decide whether or not to become independent of Khartoum. The answer is widely expected to be yes. The bigger question is would such a result be accepted peacefully by the government in Khartoum. If the answer to that question is no, the dormant civil war may erupt anew. Why should you care? Well, the price of gas will likely rise if the people in the south vote yes.

5. AKP, 1,2,3?: June 12, 2011 is the date that Turkey will elect a new government. More realistically, they will re-elect the current AKP government led by Prime Minister Erdogan to a third consecutive term. Turkey's new natural governing party looks to be finally free of any constitutional opposition to it governing. The AKP or Justice and Development Party is on the one hand in favour of a more public place for Islam in Turkish society and on the other hand a major proponent of accession into the EU. Expect the future of both those burning issues to be discussed at length in the run-up to this vote.

4. 1 and 2 and 3 Canadians: Yes, 2011 is a census year. That means the first ever voluntary long form census. Oh the statisticians are going to be angry. Perhaps, more consequentially the clock is officially ticking on the Tories plan to get the House of Commons to look more like Canada. Elections Canada is going to start redrawing electoral boundaries once they have the 2011 census numbers. The process of getting the data and then turning it into electoral districts usually takes a couple of years. Presumably the Tories have until the census data is tabulated to get the house in order.

3. The Politically Windy City: Why is a mayor's race in Chicago so interesting? Well, first of all nobody named Daley is running. Second of all, former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is running in his old boss' adopted hometown. Finally, competitive elections in Chicago always bring out the worst in politics. This should be a bloodbath.

2. Dalton's Swansong: The obituaries are already being written for the Liberal government of Dalton McGuinty. However, the voters don't get a chance to officially kill the government until October. Tim Hudak certainly has to be the favourite at this early point but campaigns do usually matter. Just ask John Tory. Hudak is playing his cards close to the vest at this point. It will be interesting if he is ever forced to show just how right wing a hand he really has. Expect a lot of Mike Harris references from the Grits.

1. Sarah Palin's Iowa: Yes, technically the Iowa Caucuses are in 2012 but most of the campaigning will take place this year. Sarah Palin will likely be involved which will ramp up the media coverage to an unprecedented level. To my mind, Iowa is a must-win for the former Alaska governor as she may end up an afterthought in New Hampshire. There are other potential candidates beyond Palin, lots of them. How many of them can find any oxygen with media darling Palin in the race, is anyone's guess. Haley Barbour, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, John Kyl and even Ricky Rubio are on the long list of presidential hopefuls. CNN may need to build a bigger stage for the early debates.

11 Policies For Canada in 2011

2010-12-21T23:45:00.002-05:00

People keep saying that Canadian politics are stale and boring. Michael Ignatieff needs some ideas just to get people talking. So, here's a quick list of 11 things that likely won't get done in 2011 but should be done:

Raise the GST to 6%. This one is fairly straight forward. The government needs to close the deficit hole and the faster the better. The GST cuts made in the last five years were too expensive. Hike the GST. It's the easiest way to raise taxes without damaging the economy to severely.
Start a high-speed rail connection for the Quebec City-Windsor corridor. Yes, this will add to the deficit but much like adding an addition to a house is a good reason to bump up a mortgage, high sped rail in Canada is worth the debt burden.
Double the number of foreign student visas available by 2020. Why? Well first, it would really piss off Maclean's. Second, foreign students pay 2 to 3 times more for university than Canadians. That means universities have more money and don't need to hike tuition for Canadians or ask the government for more money. Finally, with US student visas becoming harder and harder to come by, the world's best and brightest are looking for somewhere to study. Why not Canada?
Make the House of Commons as rep by pop as constitutionally possible. Being a nation, doesn't mean you're more important. Either that or pass a resolution in the house declaring English Canada a nation.
You know what would save more money than eliminating the penny? Eliminating the senate.
Raise the GST to 7% and give the extra cent on the dollar to the city where it was spent. Cities are massively underfunded, particularly our core cities which provide services to non-residents while receiving no tax revenue in exchange.
Cut landing fees at Canadian airports. This would be a boost to tourism and business. Why is Canada the most expensive place to land a plane?
End the mission in Afghanistan. Why exactly are we training an army for Hamid Karzai? He's proven to be corrupt and two faced at the best of times. Do we really think he'll get better once NATO leaves?
Side the with the developing world in the Doha round of the WTO. Pledge to reduce or eliminate agricultural tariffs and subsidies, if the rest of the developed world comes around. All the foreign aid in the world won't do as much as opening the world's markets to their goods. Almost every developed country started with a strong export driven agricultural sector.
Get an inter-provincial agreement to make building codes more environmentally friendly. Maybe we don't need to go as far as a solar panel on every roof, but no new building should need to be improved on things like insulation.
Don't use the notwithstanding clause to uphold current prostitution laws. Even if you don't think a regulated prostitution industry would be safer for everyone involved, can you say tax revenue?

Europe's Growing Deficit

2010-12-21T08:00:00.000-05:00

For once, I'm not talking about the fiscal mess Europe finds itself in. No, the biggest deficit in Europe these days is a democratic one. What am I talking about? Well, it starts with the EU, but that really isn't new. It is a growing concern as the panicked union attempts tries to contain a fiscal crisis that threatens the Euro itself. But that may be the least of Europe's worries. In Greece and Ireland, unpopular governments push through less popular austerity measures. This is not undemocratic in and of itself. The people elected these governments. However, it seems highly unlikely that the next government of Ireland or Greece will overturn the current decisions. There doesn't some to be anyway for the people to change the course of their government. That might not be bad economic policy, it is distressing for the state of democracy. This philosophical concern may be the least of Europe's democratic worries.

For the second time in two elections, government formation in Belgium is proving virtually impossible. Proportional Representation and a deep linguistic divide has paralyzed the seat of European power. This lack of government is all the more distressing as bond markets start to turn their eyes toward Belgian debt. Canadians complain about the seeming deadlock of our legislature. At least governments get sworn in around here. The political deadlock is exacerbating the economic problem in Belgium, which in turn won't make political negotiations any easier. A vicious cycle.

In Italy, the last week has shown how thin that country's grip on democracy has become. Silvio Berlusconi's time as Italian Prime Minister are not exactly a lesson in democracy. From his media control to his massive wealth, the Italian PM governs his country at times like the leader of a banana republic, replete with parties that would be the envy of most tin-pot dictators. Berlusconi may have reached a new low last week with accusations that he literally bought the votes he needed in the Italian lower house to avoid defeat. A sad state of affairs.

Finally, in Hungary the new government has taken an ominous turn. State control over all sorts of major institutions, including the media seems to be the order of the day in Budapest. This Hungarian government was elected in a landslide to get rid of the old horrible government. The old government was doomed by a leaked tape which had government leaders callously joking about lying about the nation's books in order to win re-election. The new government seems intent on not letting another such media leak bring it down.

White Man's Burden Protocol Should Die

2010-12-05T09:17:00.000-05:00

The Kyoto Protocol ends in 2012. It has accomplished very little and deserves to die. The problem with the Kyoto Protocol is pretty straightforward: it blames the West for climate change, or more accurately the European world for climate change. Consider the following two countries:

Country A:

Population: 48 Million
Total GDP: 1.362 Trillion USD (PPP)
Member of the OECD
G20 Member
Carbon Emissions per capita: 10 Tonnes

Country B:

Population: 2.2 Million
Total GDP: 25.93 Billion
Not a member of the OECD
Carbon Emissions per capita: 3.66 Tonnes

Objectively, country A is far more of a target for environmentalists than country B. The Kyoto Protocol doesn't think so. Country A is economic giant South Korea. Country B is tiny Latvia. Latvia is bound by Kyoto, South Korea is not. There's a lot of European guilt on climate change. The science doesn't back it up. The fumes put out by Europe and North America during the 19th century did virtually nothing to the world's climate picture. The bend in Al Gore's famous (or infamous) hockey stick graph is in the twentieth century, somewhere around the end of WWII. The West didn't have enough time to do this alone. The white man is not solely culpable for global warming. It would be easier for some progressives if it were the case. But it isn't. This makes the "Europe +" Kyoto Protocol all the more a joke. The Kyoto Protocol includes no gulf oil producing states. It includes Japan but not South Korea, Singapore or Taiwan. Oil producers Russia and Norway received sweetheart deals. Even so, Russia now wants out. If we are to do anything about CO2 emissions, it will require a global effort. The EU and a couple of friends cannot change the course of climate history. As long as the mindset of differentiated responsibilities outlined in Kyoto survive, the world will continue to fail in this fight. Real environmentalists should be cheering the death of this joke of a treaty.

Potash Deal Hits the Wall

2010-11-07T10:48:00.001-05:00

"No matter who controls the company, however, the damage to Canada’s reputation as a place to do business is done. Now that the Conservatives have joined the protectionist bandwagon, investors have lost their chief ally in Ottawa. Other countries will doubtless be more welcoming."

The Economist

There was a time when Stephen Harper actually stood for something. The decision by the federal government to kill the potash deal is proof that those days have long since past. We'll never know if the deal BHP was offering for Potash Corp was good for Canada or not. We do know that it's dead. We also know that this so-called conservative government is responsible for the only two rejections of foreign takeovers under the existing legal framework. Brad Wall's provincial concerns about the coffers of his rentier state should not come above national interest. Saying no to foreign direct investment in the midst of a major recession is reckless and endangers the future economic welfare of this country. If I were BHP, I'd be asking the government of Australia to take this to the WTO as it seems to be a clear violation of the principle of national treatment. The Mayor-elect of Toronto boasted that Toronto is now open for business. Under Stephen Harper, Canada is now closed.

The Fighter Jet Farce

2010-11-02T07:34:00.000-04:00

There's a lot of squawk from the right about the virtue of paying billions of dollars to have fighter jets constructed somewhere else. The argument seems to be a) Chretien scrapping the helicopter deal cost us some money, therefore don't scrap the jets, b) we've already put this much in we may as well keep going or c) the Russians are coming! These arguments don't hold water and they hold even less ice.

In order to justify buying 65 fighter jets, you need someone with an air force to fight. The Taliban may be a menace, but there's no red baron in their midst. Future missions in places like the Democratic Republic of Congo would be similarly free of significant air-to-air challenges. Thus, we have Stephen Harper's great Russian canard. "Arctic sovereignty" is a wonderful idea. It gets political scientists all hot and bothered. I mean how can you be a country if you can't protect your own borders? Logical? Maybe, but completely irrelevant. The people we would have to theoretically protect our "sovereignty" from are the Russian Federation and the United States of America. In case we've somehow forgotten, they are nuclear powers. Canada is not. Let me get this scenario straight: The Russians send fighter aircraft into the Northwest Passage to prevent... well I'm not quite sure... maybe us bombing their boats? (This is a naval passage after all, you can fly over the pole right now.) Anyway, there are Russian fighter jets in the northwest passage. Are Conservatives actually suggesting we threaten to shoot them down? Are we going to unilaterally declare war on Russia? The answer is of course no. A policy of "shoot down the plane and hope they don't retaliate" is almost as stupid. There are almost no conceivable scenarios where a top of the line jet fighter would protect our "arctic sovereignty".

So, if there's no purpose to these jets why are we wasting taxpayers dollars on it? It costs money to cancel any program. I don't hear Conservatives decrying Rob Ford's attempts to stop Transit City, in spite of the cancellation fees involved. Yes, cutting government waste long term may have short term costs, but our deficit, thanks to Tory tax-cut and spend policies, is a long term problem. This is pork at its worst. I don't care who originally signed the deal. It needs to end.

Finally, the sea king ghost. Canada's military actually does need helicopters. It also needs armored personnel carriers. We could probably use some more air lift capabilities if you want to spend the money on the RCAF. If you don't want to cut the military budget because that's somehow sacred, spend it on things we actually need. Fighter jets have got to be just before inter-planetary spacecraft on the most needed list. We can debate whether or not ending the misconceived helicopter contract 20 years ago was a good idea or not. There are two sides to that argument. It is not relevant to the current discussion.

Mayor Ford... Ugh

2010-10-26T00:18:00.002-04:00

Quick thoughts from a quick election night:

I'm putting the over/under on strike days during Rob Ford's four years as mayor at 150 days
Toronto's political scene is going to have a giant hole without George Smitherman around
Jack Layton, leader of a federal party and would-be Prime Minister, spent his morning at a subway stop campaigning for a city council candidate in one of the smallest wards in Toronto. Yes, Mary Fragedakis won (thanks to a huge vote split from Jane Pitfield and Jennifer Wood), but really? Layton doesn't have better things to do?
Apparently, Jim Flaherty doesn't have anything better to do either. He was hanging out at the Ford victory party. Can we stop the charade and just have political parties in municipal politics in Ontario?
Sandra Bussin was humiliated. Some good news.
Paula Fletcher escaped. Not good news
Chantal Hebert should probably visit Mississauga. Hurricane Hazel is back. If you want to limit yourself to three cities and not count the two female mayors Toronto elected back-to-back in the 90's... Well, gosh darn, there are no female mayors.
Ms. McCallion was punished by the voters for her ongoing scandals receiving a paltry 76% of the vote.
Oh and Ms. Hebert forgot to mention that aside from Mme. Marois and Ms. James (who are near locks right now), Danielle Smith is seen as a strong contender to be the next premier of Alberta. So, if Alberta, BC and Québec all elect female premiers, will Chantal complain because Andrea Horwath loses in Ontario?
We need more women in politics but it doesn't help the cause when columnists make transparently weak cases for it.

Six Cities, One Mayor

2010-10-23T15:42:00.003-04:00

In a couple days, Toronto will elect it's third Mayor since amalgamation. Six cities with different political cultures merged over a decade ago, but the differences still linger. It's too simplistic to say that this is a race between Rob Ford's suburbs and George Smitherman's downtown core but there are elements of that. Rob Ford comes from Etobicoke: the western edge of the city sandwiched between Toronto and Mississauga in more than just geography. Ford's tax fighting approach has always appealed to his constituents who have looked enviously west at Hazel McCallion's thrifty city for years. Etobicoke has 13% of Toronto's population but 20% of its landmass making it more less dense and therefore more suburban, then the packed condo towers of downtown.

Ford's surprising strength among ethnic minorities may come in large part due to Etobicoke's eastern cousin Scarborough. Toronto's much derided Eastern half is a majority minority inner suburb with whites making up just 32% of the population. Still, as demonstrated in Calgary, people don't need to vote for someone who looks like them. Particularly, if they are speaking to their issues. The TTC is a joke in Scarborough, with 600,000 people served by just 6 LRT stops and patchwork maze of buses. Scarborough is an excellent portrait of the new Canadian experience: semi-successful, semi-peripheral. City Hall can feel a long way away when you're standing on the banks of the Rouge River and Ford speaks to that and hey, at least he acknowledges that they work hard (okay, yeah, a lot of political analysis is trying to explain the inexplicable and trying to explain Ford's success among visible minorities is one of those moments). There may be some Torontonians who like to forget Scarborough and Etobicoke exist but they do and electorally, they matter.

A lot of people may have forgotten the tiny borough of East York ever existed. Just 100,000 people call the former borough home and East York covers just 21 square kilometers. However, it has its own political dynamic. East York was always a tiny, slightly right wing version of the bigger city. It produced right wingers like the retiring city councillor Case Ootes, deputy mayor to Mel Lastman and right wing NDPers Beaches-East York MPP Michael Prue who served as its last mayor. East Yorkers are proud of their corner of the city and local issues have always been top of mind in this part of the city. From wealthy Leaside to the poorer Thorncliffe Park, tiny East York is not homogeneous by any stretch. It may surprise some outsiders to know that the borough is over 12% Muslim and about half of it's population is foreign born. In 2003, the three wards which contain the former city, voted for Miller over Tory by a margin of about 5:4.

East York is not the only former city to have faded from the memory banks. The old city of York, sandwiched between North York, Toronto and Etobicoke, is often similarly forgotten. In 2003, John Nunziata carried his only ward in York where his sister, Frances Nunziata (now on city council) was wrapping up as York's last mayor. York is far too familiar with crime making law and order an issue here. Almost as small as East York, at just 120,000 residents, York's electoral impact may not be as large its neighbours like Etobicoke, and North York.

North York provided Toronto with its first mayor in the post-amalgamation era and much of what we are talking about today has something to do with Mel Lastman. The political juggernaut from North York brought his populist sound bite brand of driven brand of politics to new city hall. Whatever Mayor Mel did or didn't do, he was certainly a big enough personality for the new big city. Lastman's North York is famous for its high level of service, for not a lot of taxes. How to deal with some of those legacies (like city-shoveled sidewalks) has been one of the challenges for the new mega-city. North York straddles the rich and poor divide like no other part of the city. It encompasses the ostentatious Bridle Path and the troubled Jane and Finch. North York is almost as large as the old city itself and neither Ford nor Smitherman can afford a poor showing in North York.

The old city of Toronto, generally seen as Smitherman's strength is a strange political animal. The NIMBYism which saw Miller's opposition to a tiny bridge to the island airport is part of the dynamic here. But the champagne socialism of Miler has not gone down all over the old city. The dense townhouses and semi-detached houses made for resistance to Miller's new garbage bins which often have to be left on front porches for lack of options. The money made on Bay street and enjoyed in Rosedale is part of the mix too. The old city may be what most outsiders think about when they think about Toronto, but it is a small part of the city. It's voters may find themselves on the outside looking in if Rob Ford is able to win.

Garbage Fallout 2010 Rocco Rossi Edition

2010-10-13T23:55:00.001-04:00

Rocco Rossi has finally realized that he has no chance of becoming Toronto's next mayor. Rossi's campaign was highlighted by excellent media savvy and lots of ideas (ranging in quality). Problem was nobody really knew who Rocco Rossi was. With Smitherman and Ford now apparently deadlocked in the polls, Rossi's departure from the race makes the race a lot simpler. Torontonians can vote for George Smitherman, they can vote for Rob Ford or they can throw their vote away and vote for Joe Pantalone. I think the choice is pretty obvious. Smitherman has been a men amongst boys (and Sarah Thompson) in this race and is the only person capable of leading Toronto into the next decade. You can vote for anger and vitriol or you can vote for a man of substance and character.

Harper Wins Win-Win Scenario

2010-10-12T23:55:00.001-04:00

Stephen Harper is not a tactical genius, but he did pull off a tactical victory in this whole UN mess. Really, he couldn't lose. If he had gotten a seat at the security council it's a diplomatic feather in his cap. Canada's at the big boys table etc. etc. However, he always had the other side to play. The UN is not a very popular organization among the core of the Conservative Party. It's even less popular with the pro-Israel wing of the Conservative party who view it as a fundamentally anti-Israeli, pro-Palestinian organization because of the numbers the Muslim world can bring to bear at the General Assembly and other UN bodies. Harper couched his withdrawal by making it about Israel.

I don't think he expected to have to force the issue as much as he did by conjuring up some story about deepening and expanding the Canada-Israel Free Trade Agreement (CIFTA). However, it did the trick. Harper comes off to his base as 'a friend of Israel who wasn't willing to sell himself to the evil UN just to win a seat at the ineffective Security Council'. Of course, Harper already made nice with most of the same Muslim leaders when he was still trying to win the seat, meeting with leaders like Pres. Abbas, but pay that no mind.

What really gets my goat professionally is seeing him talk about expanding free trade after allowing the Colombian and Jordanian FTA's to die not once but twice on the order paper. All those wonderful things they were telling that we're getting out of CIFTA we could be getting out of trade with those two countries as well. Harper, of course, preferred to prorogue parliament than do something good for the country. CIFTA, of course, was brought in by Jean Chretien's government back in the mid-90's. It was deepened slightly in the last years of Chretien's government. How exactly you make it any deeper is anyone's guess. There are some goods that it could probably apply to in each country that are currently not on the list but this is not a weak FTA. There's not a lot of room for big economic gains there... at least without touching the agricultural sacred cow... all puns intended.

Garbage Fallout 2010: Sarah Thomson Edition

2010-09-29T21:47:00.001-04:00

For a blog called All Politics is Local I do a piss poor job covering municipal politics. My life has gotten in the way of blogging the last few months anyway, but Toronto's mayor race is starting to head into the home stretch. In a lot of ways, the campaign starts next week. That's when lawn signs will start dotting the streets of Toronto. The ban on signs is lifted Monday October 4th at 12:01 so expect some hammering in your neighbourhood Sunday night/Monday morning. The mayor's race got a lot more interesting when Sarah Thomson dropped out and gave the semi-conscious George Smitherman campaign a needed jolt. Smtitherman is the guy that is supposed to win this thing by all logic and reason. Thomson's endorsement may be enough to solidify him as the only guy capable of avoiding the Fordcalypse.

I've been skeptical of Ford's numbers to begin with. I think part of it is I admittedly don't want them to be true. However, I think there is some reason in my thinking. Municipal politics don't generate a lot of attention from the public and those that do pay attention tend to be those who are the most pissed off. Thus, early on in a race (and we're still almost a month to E-day) the people most willing to commit in any poll are those who are angriest in this case Ford supporters. Another thing to consider is that people are much more likely to say they'll vote for a third, fourth or fifth place candidate in a poll a month out then they are on election day. Municipal polls are also terrible because nobody actually knows who to poll. There's no way for a pollster or analysts to look at the results of a poll and say "that's not right". There's just not enough data to compare it to. Miller was, according to one poll, at 70% the week before the vote in 2006 but ended up with 55%. I think we're in for a tight race. I honestly don't have a clue who wins.

Far-Right Kingmakers Following Swedish Election

2010-09-19T23:29:00.001-04:00

For proponents of proportional representation all over the globe, Sweden has always been held up as a paragon of virtue. Stable majority coalition has followed stable majority coalition. The fact that Sweden has become a de facto two party system (with The Alliance and the Red-Green Coalition being the only choices) is largely ignored by PR's advocates. Yes, there are seven different ways of choosing one or the other but at the end of the day only two people could become prime minister after yesterday's vote: the incumbent New Moderate Fredrik Reinfeldt or Social Democrat Mona Sahlin. The winner last night was Reinfeldt's alliance which won government with fewer votes than the Social Democrats, because he is part of a larger coalition. However, Reinfeldt has a major headache in the form of the upstart Sweden Democrats. The far-right party broke through the low 4% threshold which kept them out of parliament in 2006 and look to hold 20 seats in the Riksdag. With The Alliance 3 votes short of a majority, the Sweden Democrats hold the balance of power in their xenophobic hands. While they are apparently vowing "not to cause trouble," what Reinfeldt will need to do to either get their support or the opposition's support will be interesting to say the least.

The Sweden Democrats earned no more than 11.2% in any region of the country. Their largest support came from areas in southern Sweden with high levels of immigration from Muslim countries like Somalia and Iraq. Still, with such low levels of support, they would never have won election in a single member plurality (or what is dismissively known as first-past-the-post) system. A proportional system, like the version of MMP used in Sweden, encourages the growth and continued success of these small fringe parties. Once elected, you can never guarantee that the electoral calculus won't break down like it has in Sweden: with the radical fringe holding the country's future in its hands.

Sweden Votes 2010

2010-09-13T07:36:00.000-04:00

This Sunday Swedes will head to the polls to elect a government. Swedish politics are a fairly static business, or at least they used to be. Until 2006, the Social Democrats and their allies had held power for all but seven of the proceeding seventy years. So when Fredrik Reinfeldt and his New Moderate led Alliance won in 2006, it was a major victory. Like the previous centre-right government it looked like Reinfeldt was going to be doomed by a terrible economy. However, Reinfeldt has proved more resilient and a week out the opinion polls show that he and his allies have opened up a significant lead. Of course, this is all academic depending on what happens on election day. All the drama will revolve around the 4% threshold to hold seats in the Riksdag, the Swedish parliament, under Sweden's PR-based MMP system. Three parties seem to be hovering around that number and how many of those parties reach the threshold will likely determine the stability of the Riksdag.

Sweden has traditionally been a seven party system with two stable coalitions. The Social Democrats currently led by Mona Sahlin are supported by the Left Party (Communist) and the Green Party. The New Moderates led by Reinfeldt are supported by the Liberal Party, the Centre Party (a farmers' party reminiscent of the old Canadian Progressives) and the Christian Democrats. The Centre Party and the Christian Democrats have fallen on hard times, in spite of being in government, and are perilously close to political oblivion. Should either party fail to reach that threshold, the Alliance may fall short of a majority in the Riksdag if the Swedish Democrats are able to break the threshold and crash the party. The xenophobic, nationalist Swedish Democrats are politically radioactive for the mainstream parties but should they win seats, they have a very good chance of holding the balance of power. If that happens on Sunday, the normally consensus-driven Riksdag may find itself at an unprecedented impasse.

US Senate Preview 2010

2010-08-27T07:18:00.000-04:00

With just over two months left until the US midterm elections, a quick preview of some key races for those of you just tuning in:

Florida: Sen. Mel Martinez' (R) somewhat unexpected retirement has left Floridians with an open senate seat. The early consensus is that Gov. Charlie Crist (R) would just walk into the role, but a funny thing happened on the way to the senate. That funny thing is named Marco Rubio (R). Rubio became the darling of the tea party movement and ended up so far ahead of Crist in primary polling, that Crist decided to save himself the embarrassment of losing a primary, and just run as an independent. All of this should mean good news for the Dems but they've been making lemons out of lemonade all year. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) ended up winning a stunningly nasty nomination battle with a billionaire opponent but is widely expected to be an also ran in a Republican v. Republican battle with many Dems preferring the centrist Crist over the lesser known Meek.

Kentucky: More Tea Party fun in Kentucky, where Rand Paul, son of Ron, swept the Republican nomination out from under the feet of the establishment candidate. Now, what was supposed to be an easy hold for the Republicans (Jim Bunning (R) is retiring), may become more interesting if enough people in Blue Grass country can't warm up to the radical Rand Paul. The Democrat who could benefit from a Republican implosion is state AG Jack Conway.

Nevada: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is about as popular as a card counter in Vegas these days. In fact, many had him as the first domino to fall in a Democratic collapse in November. However, the Republicans have once again made their lives difficult by nominating walking gaffe-machine Sharron Angle. This woman has to be seen to be believed.

Colorado: Barack Obama raided the Senate benches extensively to form his cabinet and that is noticeable in some of the elections this year. Colorado is one of those place as Sen. Salazar's move to the cabinet table has left an open seat. Appointed senator Michael Bennett will try to defend the seat for the Dems, he will face yet another Tea Partier, Ken Buck. Buck like Paul and Rubio knocked off the establishment candidate in his primary.

Delaware: Blue Delaware is the likeliest of the Democratic seats to fall victim to the Obama cabinet table. Vice-President Biden's seat was supposed to be passed on to his politicking, army serving son, Beau. However, Beau surprised the Dems by not wanting the job. That left long-time Rep. Mike Castle (R) a golden opportunity to move into the senate. A chance he will likely take at the expense of Chris Coons (D).

Arkansas: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) is about as popular as mud in Arkansas these days. The Dems know this and tried to replace the fall-through-the-mushy-middle Lincoln with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in the primary. Lincoln held on by the skin of her teeth. The beneficiary of Lincoln's narrow victory will likely be Rep. John Boozman (R) who won the Republican nod.

Pennsylvania: A revolt by both parties' bases has forced Arlen Specter into retirement. The long time moderate Republican was in for a thrashing from Republican candidate Pat Toomey and he knew it. So, in order to serve Pennsylvania and save his own skin, he crossed the aisle. The Democrats knew this stunk to high heaven and gave their nomination to former Admiral current congressman Joe Sestak. Both parties have happier bases than they would have with Specter on the ticket, independents may have less to choose from.

Alaska: Sarah Palin made her maverick name by knocking off incumbent Gov. Frank Murkowski in a Republican primary. Now, Palin has helped do the same thing to the Governor's daughter (who he appointed to the Senate). With Lisa Murkowski gone, the race may be closer than it would have been. However, this is Alaska which is so red it only narrowly defeated the disgraced Sen. Ted Stevens and kept the disgraced Rep. Don Young last time around. All this is bad news for the Democrat, Scott McAdams.

Other races to watch:

Obama' seat in Illinois (no longer for sale)
Clinton's seat in New York
Evan Bayh's seat in Indiana
The cursed seat currently held by Richard Burr in North Carolina
Almost Obama senate appointee Judd Gregg's old seat in New Hampshire
David "DC Madam" Vitter's re-election bid in Louisiana
Robin Carnahan's bid to exorcise some family demons in Missouri (her father died in a plane crash weeks before the 2000 election and won from beyond the grave; her mother ended up taking the seat temporarily)

Sun "Snow Fox" Media Continues to be Fair and Balanced

2010-08-24T06:58:00.001-04:00

I don't read 24 Hours, one of Toronto's two free daily newspapers, on my subway ride to work in the morning. Principally, that's because it has almost no news in it. To boot, it's a Sun Media paper. So when I did come across a copy lying about yesterday I shouldn't have been surprised to see this story about Toronto's mayoral race and right wing standard bearer Rob Ford. Well, the link is the only permanent version I could find (from the Toronto Sun). The 24 Hours story (which you might be able to find here) which was on page 5 of the August 23rd edition is significantly worse. Both papers have apparently taken to printing the Rob Ford campaign's latest press release as straight news. Yes, shockingly the Ford campaign thinks that the scandals which dogged the campaign last week are behind them. Breaking news: the Ford campaign also believes that Rob Ford is awesome. How Sun Media can think that qualifies as news is beyond me. When you see 'journalism' like this, it is easy to see why there are so few journalists left.

Australia Votes 2010: Cliffhanger Edition

2010-08-22T17:32:00.002-04:00

The Australian election has resulted in the tightest of outcomes. Right now, it appears the right wing coalition led by Liberal Tony Abbott will win 73 seats to incumbent Labor PM Julia Gillard's 72 seats. Independents will hold four seats and the Green party will have one seat. The punditry seems to be indicating that Mr. Abbott will be able to corral the independents and form a new government. However, PM Gillard is making noises about trying to form a coalition herself. This could get a lot more interesting in the days to come.

Stephen Harper's Refugee Problem

2010-08-17T07:52:00.001-04:00

The most striking thing about the arrival of 500 Tamil refugee claimants to Canada is that it is news at all. Canada processes thousands of refugee claims every year. So what makes the Tamils so exceptional? Well very little. The boat provides better visuals for the media, but really this is a blip for our system, so why all the fuss? Well, I think we can start to identify a pattern. Stephen Harper has made great efforts to broaden his party's appeal to new Canadians. This despite a reticence among some parts of his base to fully get behind immigration. Harper appears to be drawing the line at refugee claims. While many in his party may be upset about grandmothers being brought over under family reunification and taking advantage of social services, Harper realizes that going after granny makes very little political sense. However, false refugee claims or dangerous refugee claimants are easy targets. Particularly, if you pick on groups that don't have a huge understanding in the Canadian public.

In spite of the large and active Tamil population in Canada, many Canadians probably don't know that much about the civil war in Sri Lanka. A battle between a Buddhist government and a Hindu minority doesn't trigger raw emotions in most Canadians like say the conflict in the middle east does. Furthermore, the Tamil population, while sizable, is unusually concentrated in Toronto making it much more of an enigma in most of Canada. The previous group targeted by Harper as abusers of the system were central European Roma, primarily from the Czech Republic and Hungary. Once again, Canadians don't necessarily have the understanding of their situation in order to evoke retaliatory sympathy. In both cases, Harper has gone after groups that are still viewed as "others" in the minds of many Canadians. Harper also cracked down on Mexican refugee claims in the aftermath of stories of Canadians being killed on vacation in Mexico. He exploited the fear Canadians had about the Mexican drug war to advance his political agenda. The pattern is clear. This government wants to limit refugees entering the country whenever possible. Harper knows its political folly to be against immigration. However, when given the chance, his true colours shine through. In this case, a pasty white.

Dutch Deal With the Devil

2010-08-05T23:50:00.001-04:00

When Europhiles dismiss the rise of xenophobic, islamophobic, neo-fascist parties in Europe, they often argue that the small number of seats these parties may hold in any given parliament are not all that important. After all, mainstream parties are loathe to make deals with them and thus, they become irrelevant. Well, welcome to the Netherlands in 2010. After eight weeks of backroom dealings, the Dutch may end up with a government capable of pushing through the economic reforms people voted for back on June 9th. There's only one small catch: the kingmaker is Islamophobic fear-monger Geert Wilders. Europe is long overdue in confronting its xenophobic demons, maybe this will encourage some soul searching.

The government, by the way, was elected using a PR system. The eight week negotiation and not so desirable outcome is a pretty standard by-product of PR. All that is of course completely worth it because they have pleased the golden idol of proportionality. It could be worse, just look door in Belgium. The Belgians voted four days after the Dutch, but no amount of Belgian lager has been able to cobble together a coalition. However, this is still early days in Belgium. Last time it took more than a year.

Slow News Summer Run Down

2010-08-05T07:15:00.000-04:00

Quick hits:

Mr. Ivison completely misses the point in trying to defend Stockwell Day. Mr. Day was trying to defend increased incarceration rates which simply cannot be moved by unreported crime no matter how serious those crimes are.
A quick reminder that coalitions are a fragile business. Silvio Berlusconi has managed to survive his first test after his government coalition fragmented chaotically. The break-up is reminiscent of the reform split under Stockwell Day. Even if the government does fall, the money is still on the richest man in Italy to keep his job.
Okay, so I guess the Greens subscribe to the Bryan Burke "pugnacity and truculence" school of team-building. They might not win but they will be tougher to play against and their supporters will be entertained.
If the Greens actually wanted to win, they'd find a viable candidate for Simcoe-Grey, where Helena Guergis is threatening to divide the Tory vote in two. Huronia/Cottage Country has proved fertile territory for the Greens. Then again if Chuck Cadman and Bill Casey are any guide, my money's on Guergis.
If only all of California's stupid propositions had been struck down so quickly; the state might actually be governable.
Rob Ford meanwhile continues to tilt at windmills. I'm guessing he wouldn't be marching in the pride parade as mayor.
Taste of the Danforth is this weekend. I urge everyone to come to my neck of the woods for the great food, music and general frivolity. I encourage everyone to get to my neck of the woods by TTC. There's no parking on a regular weekend, you can forget about it this weekend.

It Must Be Summer...

2010-07-20T07:16:00.000-04:00

While I understand why some of my friends in the Liberal blogosphere are exercised about Census-Gate, can you honestly tell me that this would be a story any other time of the year? No, we shouldn't be cutting the long census. No, StatsCan is not going to sell your personal, confidential information to the highest bidder. Yes, the information acquired in the long census is useful. But since when have the Tories cared about doing the right thing for Canada's future? The actual political football of the census is its impact on the new electoral map that will follow. When you hear Republicans belly-aching about the census they're worried about cities being over-counted not about any privacy concerns. However, gerrymandering is not a major part of Canadian politics and nobody expects Elections Canada to start drawing ridings that look like American congressional districts. Long census or not, we will know where the seats are going come the end of the 2011 census. Bring on the open nominations, merged ridings and all the associated in-fighting. The last redistribution brought us the epic Valeri-Copps nomination battle in Hamilton. Now that is political fodder you can sink your teeth into.

Haper's Summer of Fiscal Austerity Continues

2010-07-17T00:25:00.002-04:00

Stephen Harper lectured the world this June on the importance of governments reigning in soaring deficits. I guess this is another "do as I say, not as I do" type of thing for the Prime Minister. Harper's belt tightening expenditures now include billions for new boats for the navy, $1 billion plus for G8/G20 security complete with a fake lake, and the latest: a 9 billion dollar no-bid contract to Lockheed Martin for fighter jets. At least the boats and G8/G20 security provided jobs for Canadians. Lockheed has a tiny (given the size of the company) operation in Canada with just 600+ of its 136,000 employees based in Canada. Why on earth did they get a no-bid contract? All of this wasteful spending will surely counteract any deficit reduction gained by the unexpected strength of the Canadian economy. I don't understand how these people can call themselves Conservatives.

Stupid Quote of the Week

2010-07-09T20:33:00.002-04:00

Goes to Ontario Liberal MPP Kevin Flynn for his comments on youth mental health. Trying to make the case, I guess, that we need to treat mental health seriously, he said the following:

“(Mental illness is) an illness like any other illness. You don’t send a child to a different hospital when they break their arm, you send him to the same hospital you send the adults to.”

Perhaps, the MPP for Oakville should take a walk over to Toronto's renown Hospital for Sick Children more commonly known as SickKids. It seems Mr. Flynn has forgotten that the place exists along with the world's thousands upon thousands of pediatricians.

HST Arrives; Sky Fails to Fall

2010-07-01T23:07:00.002-04:00

The Harmonized Sales Tax has arrived in both British Columbia and Ontario. Life, surprisingly enough, kept going. The HST has been called a lot of things by a lot of people. What it is in essence is yet another tax shift away from business taxes and on to personal and consumption taxes. That's really all the HST does. That's why it is good for business and that's why people are upset about paying 8 cents more on the dollar for a liter of gas in Toronto. The HST allows businesses to account for provincial sales taxes in the same way they account for the Goods and Services Tax. GST, and now HST paid by businesses in order to produce or acquire a given product are considered to be an input tax credit. That credit can then be claimed when the business sells that product to the final consumer and charges HST. In essence, the government only receives the HST from the final consumer. All the transactions made to get it to the final consumer should be tax neutral. That's why businesses like it. It also means they pay one tax instead of two which means less paperwork and aggravation in the long run. Final consumers will only notice a difference on goods that were previously exempt from provincial sales taxes and have not been granted an exemption on the HST. Governments have tried to lessen the burden on consumers by lowering income taxes. That's it. Much ado about nothing if you ask me. Once the sticker shock wears off, we'll forget it wasn't always that way. At 5-13%, Canada still boasts a relatively low Value Added Tax when compared to many countries in Europe.

A Giant Exits

2010-06-26T12:37:00.002-04:00

Peter Milliken, the Speaker of the House of Commons, has announced that he will not being seeking re-election in the next election. The MP from Kingston and the Islands has seen his margins fall as the Liberal tide has ebbed in Eastern Ontario but in all likelihood Milliken has just decided to retire. Milliken is the longest serving speaker of the house in Canadian history. He has been a speaker who has found himself in the spotlight, having to cast an historic vote to save the Martin government in 2005 and more recently being at the centre of the Afghan Detainee storm. The speaker is a parliamentarian in the best sense of the word. He is respected by all parties and his depth of knowledge on parliamentary procedure is unmatched. I had the pleasure of helping out on Mr. Milliken's 2006 campaign. Milliken ran a different sort of campaign in one respect: no signs. He always tried to make an agreement with his opponents (or just the Conservative) that campaign signs would not blight Kingston's landscape. That was more important. Mr. Speaker, Ottawa will be a lot worse off without you.

The Electoral System Isn't the Issue

2010-06-21T07:08:00.000-04:00

A combination of things including an internet outage has scuttled the blog for the past few days. The rest of my world cup preview would now be horribly out of date. On to more political things. For those of you who didn't notice, Belgium had an election a little while back. The result wasn't all that surprising for Belgium but that doesn't mean it was any less complicated. Canadian talking heads *cough* Andrew Coyne *cough* often cite our "antiquated electoral system" as the primary reason that the Bloc Québecois has been able to maintain a presence in our parliament. Well, over in Belgium the results of the latest election in that PR based country have given the Flemish nationalists a plurality of seats in the Belgian parliament. Granted it is a small plurality, about 27 out of 150 seats, or about an identical ratio to the current Bloc presence in the Canadian parliament. So next time Andrew Coyne or some other pundit complains about the Bloc, just thank your lucky stars we don't live in a PR based country like Belgium.

World Cup Preview: Group C

2010-06-09T21:35:00.002-04:00

On to Group C:

England (1st in group 6 in UEFA Qualifying): No country faces the pressure quite like the English. Other countries have must win attitudes, but most of those countries have more recent glories to remember. The English World Cup drought is legendary. This year's side has the talent to break it. They have the players. They have the coach. The goaltending is a question mark. Wayne Rooney may be the most on-form out and out striker on the planet. Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard are excellent midfielders. The loss of Rio Ferdinand will hurt. The English are good enough to win. Are they strong enough to handle the pressure? Time will tell.

Player to watch: Wayne Rooney (ST)

Prediction: 1st in Group C, Out in the Semi-finals.

USA (1st in CONCACAF): The US had an uneventful run through qualifying. They were far from perfect, but they were good enough to grab top spot and not have to worry about their last couple of matches. The Americans will rely on the positive experience gained from the Confederations Cup last year when they shocked Spain in the semi-finals and had a lead on Brazil in the finals. The US enters the tournament with more questions than answers. Tim Howard is one of the best keepers in the tournament but the men in front of him are riddles. Oguchi Onweyu is coming back from a major injury. Landon Donovan is an enigma at the best of times. Charlie Davies absence in the wake of a car crash that left his companion dead, has left a major hole up top. The Americans have a nasty habit of playing to the level of their opponents. Remember in 06 they played eventual champs Italy to a gritty draw before bowing out of the group stage at the hands of lesser opponents. Slovenia and Algeria may be the key games for the US.

Player to Watch: Oguchi Onweyu (DF)

Prediction: 3rd in Group C

Algeria (Tie for 1st in Group C in African Qualifying; Defeated Egypt in playoff): Few teams can match Algeria's qualifying story, beating arch-rivals Egypt in a sudden death playoff in Khartoum. However, on the pitch Algeria is probably over-matched in this group. Their qualifying group was a two horse race the whole way and one has to wonder if beating Egypt is more than enough to satisfy the Algerians. A relatively unheralded roster will have their hands full in a tough Group C.

Prediction: 4th in Group C

Slovenia (2nd in Group 3 in UEFA qualifying; Defeated Russia in playoff): No one gave tiny Slovenia any hope against Euro powerhouse Russia in a two game playoff. After all, Slovenia had come out of group 3 notable not for its winner (Slovakia) but for the poor performances of its expected powers (Czech Republic, Poland and to a lesser extent Belgium). The Slovenes however, shocked the Russians and won't be afraid of anyone in South Africa. With giants England in the group to distract their opponents, expect the Slovenes to take some scalps.

Prediction: 2nd in Group C, out in the round of 16.

The Low Countries Vote 2010

2010-06-09T21:02:00.002-04:00

A busy election year in Europe continues with neighbours the Netherlands and Belgium voting mere days apart. We await results from the elections in the Netherlands where it appears the results will be clear as mud. I can't wait to see how that coalition gets built. Do you work around the anti-immigrant party or with it? At any rate, Europe's flirtation with the far right does not appear to be over. Whatever happens in the Netherlands will look downright organized compared to the ongoing chaos that is Belgium. FiveThirtyEight gives a much better run down than I ever could. Go read it. Coalition building is an ugly process in a lot of countries. It's a near impossible exercise in Belgium. Some countries have an easy time building coalitions, but there are no guarantees that a proportional electoral system will ensure quick and orderly coalition building. You could end up like Belgium did: without a government for months on end. I've said this before, but it bears repeating, how you count the votes has very little impact on what kind of government you get.

Not In My Name

2010-06-09T07:20:00.000-04:00

If this story is at all accurate, shame on all parties involved. This is a disgrace. Pierre Trudeau, Lester Pearson, Louis St. Laurent, William Lyon Mackenzie King, Wilfred Laurier, Edward Blake, Alexander Mackenzie, George Brown, Robert Baldwin and Louis-Hippolyte Lafontaine must be rolling in their graves. We've been in worse shape. Mulroney wiped the floor with Turner. Diefenbaker destroyed Pearson. Mackenzie King lost office twice including in the wake of the 1929 crash. Laurier's Grits were in tatters after 1911. Before Laurier we held power for 5 out of 29 years. Brown was almost never in government. Lafontaine had to run in Ontario for fear of his safety in Québec.

The Liberal Party has survived in basically one incarnation for the past 150 years not solely as its critics would tell you because it lusts for power but because it stands for Canadian progress. In its earliest incarnations it stood for democracy. It stood against the corruption of Sir John A. It stood for Laurier's dream of a great nation leading the world into the 2oth century. It stood for Pearson and Trudeau's vision of responsible action abroad and justice and equality at home. It still stands for balanced budgets and fiscal responsibility. Bad poll numbers, even bad elections do not give any party insider the right to negotiate away that history. At very least, a full consultation with the party membership should have been undertaken to ask their opinion.

On Monday evening, the Toronto-Danforth Federal Liberal Association will conduct its Annual General Meeting in its continued efforts to unseat the leader of the NDP. My riding association exists for a reason. My party exists for a reason. May history condemn any person who would sell out their party for the feint hope of power.

World Cup Preview: Group B

2010-06-08T06:39:00.000-04:00

On to Group B:

Argentina (4th in CONMEBOL): Argentina's struggles through qualifying provided one of the most compelling story lines to watch. In the end, the side led by Lionel Messi and coached by Diego Maradona was able to qualify comfortably in fourth. Argentina will not lack for talent. Lionel Messi leads a potent attack which features Manchester City's Carlos Tevez and Atletico Madrid's Sergio Aguero. The most frequently asked question about Argentina is whether or not they can overcome Maradona's coaching to secure glory. Group B shouldn't pose much of a problem for Argentina and a weak Group A should provide knock out round fodder.

Player to Watch: Lionel Messi (ST)

Prediction: 1st in Group B, Semi-Finals

Republic of Korea (1st in Group 2 in Asian Qualifying): If the future lies in Asia, the football world isn't paying attention. Indeed, eight years after Korea and Japan hosted the event, Asia seems to be a forgotten continent. Africa has had an unusually bright spotlight, Europe is always king and South America always draws attention. Asia has been ignored. This probably suits the South Koreans just fine. A lot of ink has been spilled discussing the unexpected qualification of the DPRK, but South Korea, which finished 4 points ahead of their northern cousins has been ignored. Do so at your own peril. The team is led by one of Alex Ferguson's favourite players the always dangerous Park Ji Sung and could well be a nuisance to a bigger country.

Player to Watch: Lee Chung Yong

Prediction: 2nd in Group B. Eliminated in the round of 16.

Nigeria (1st in Group B of African Qualifying): The superpower of Africa boasts no shortage of big names. John Obi Mikel, Obafemi Martins, Dickson Etuhu and the ageless Kanu headline a strong team. The problem for Nigeria has been putting the pieces together. Last day heroics allowed Nigeria to qualify for this tournament and the team looked pedestrian against what was a not particularly difficult qualifying group. Yes, they could get their act together on African soil, but they will need to do so in short order. There are no soft marks in Group B and Nigeria may find it difficult to break down the Koreans and Greeks. Nigeria will probably be a lot of people's choice to move on here. Not mine.

Player to Watch: John Obi Mikel

Prediction: 3rd in Group B

Greece (2nd in Group 2; Defeated Ukraine 1-0 on aggregate): Euro 2004 seems like a long time ago for the Greeks. Yes, they've qualified for their first world cup since 1994, but hopes cannot be high for this team. Then again, hopes are never high for Greece, they weren't in 2004. If their defensive shell is cracked early, it could get ugly for the Greeks who faced little real competition from a weak qualifying group. 2004 was a once in a lifetime achievement for Greece. It's only been six years.

Player to Watch: Georgios Karagounis

Prediction: Last in Group B

World Cup Preview: Group A

2010-06-06T21:04:00.002-04:00

Politics are important. I'll get back to politics. First, a series offering my two cents on the World Cup. Starting with Group A:

South Africa (Hosts): The tournament hosts are, by some accounts, the worst side ever to host a world cup. Then again, the same was probably said about either South Korea or Japan eight years ago and both sides had long deep runs into the tournament. South Africa are led by Everton midfielder Steven Pienaar. Pienaar and the few other non-South African based players will have to be excellent if this team is going to avoid embarrassing itself on home soil. Home turf is important in football, but one has to wonder if South Africa has the wherewithal to overcome the obstacles ahead of them.

Player to Watch: Stephen Pienaar (MF)

Prediction: 4th in Group A

France (2nd in Group 7; Defeated Ireland on aggregate 2-1 in playoff): One of the most controversial qualifiers, the French qualified on the strength of a Thierry Henry handball assist to eke out the Irish for a spot in South Africa. They were forced into the playoff after Raymond Dominic's side limped their way through group 7 posting a shocking opening day loss in Austria, draws at Serbia and Romania and again at home to the Romanians. Serbia beat out the French by a point to win the group. French football is rebuilding but the current squad looks awfully familiar. The 2006 finalists bring six out-field players over the age of 30 to the tournament. Age may be less of a factor in a short tournament like the world cup and there is no doubt that this team is loaded with talent. The question is whether or not the stars will align and France will make a run at this year's competition.

Player to Watch: Franck Ribery (MF)

Prediction: First in Group A, Out in the quarter-finals.

Mexico (Second in CONCACAF): Mexico's qualifying campaign started abysmally. The first group stage saw the Mexicans advance on a tiebreaker after poor results including a draw in Edmonton against a dysfunctional Canadian side. The Hex didn't start much better but after Sven Göran Eriksson was replaced by Javier Aguire, El Tri rounded into form and qualified comfortably in the second automatic spot. Of concern is Mexico's road record. El Tri were 5-0-0 at home but managed just a win and a draw away from the friendly confines of the Azteca. While South Africa's stadiums may be as loud as the Azteca courtesy of the vuvuzelas, odds are the fans won't all be cheering for Mexico. CONCACAF needs the US and Mexico to do well to gain respectability. I don't see it for Mexico.

Player to Watch: Cuauthemoc Blanco (MF/ST)

Prediction: Third in Group A

Uruguay (5th in South America; defeated Costa Rica 2-1 in a playoff): Uruguay famously won the first World Cup but those glories are long gone. The current squad boasts a lot of talent including dynamic Atletica Madrid forward Diego Forlan and are certainly not anybody's first choice of opponents. However, the Uruguayans struggled to even make the playoff with Costa Rica and managed only a 2-1 win over Costa Rica in spite being heavy favourites in the match. Like Mexico, Uruguay struggled away from home in the difficult South American qualifying tournament posting just two wins in 9 matches outside of Montevideo. A weak group will help Uruguay, but after that they're toast.

Player to Watch: Diego Forlan (ST)

Prediction: Second in Group A, Out in round of 16.

Next!

2010-06-02T07:58:00.001-04:00

Japan has lost yet another Prime Minister. Junichiro Koizumi's 5 and a half year tenure as Prime Minister is looking more and more like a miracle. Koiziumi quit in September of 2006. Since then, Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fakuda, Taro Aso and now Yukio Hatoyama have failed to hold on to the reins of power for more than 365 days. Notably, Hatoyama is of course from the Democratic Party who replaced the long serving LDP in last year's elections. With elections for the Japanese upper house this summer threatening the Democratic Party's bicameral majority, Hatoyama has stepped aside over the Okinawa base issue. I guess the Americans aren't interested in doing any favours for Japanese politicians while Kim Jong Il is sinking South Korean naval vessels.

Tories Squeeze Private Political Loans

2010-06-01T08:38:00.000-04:00

Okay, so this isn't really news but it hasn't received a ton of coverage so I'm going to talk about it. On April 28th the Tories introduced bill C-19 which would, if passed, tighten the grip on one of the few easy ways left to finance a political campaign: private loans. The bill permits candidates to get any loan they want from a bank but makes the rule a lot tougher if they want to get the money privately. Loans would be limited to the annual donation restrictions and the lenders information would be made public. The bill also mandates that all loans be paid back within 3 years (this applies to leadership races, Liberal Leadership '06 candidates). After that the loans are counted as donations. The bill would essentially just extend current rules to apply to loans. The only strange part of the bill is continuing to allow bank loans. If loans are donations, aren't bank loans corporate donations? I suppose the logic is that a lot of the private loans are done at virtually no interest by family, friends and supporters.

This bill, like the earlier attempt to kill public political financing, is political through and through. The Tories fundraise far more effectively than their opponents and therefore rely less heavily on loans. Debt has become a fairly standard operating procedure for modern political candidates, this bill could change that. It's a bill that may be more important than it appears. Of course, it may never be passed. I for one will keep an eye on it.

Harper Turns Off Hose, Turns on Sprinkler

2010-06-01T08:29:00.000-04:00

Sometimes reality has a nasty habit of getting in the way of a good idea. Stephen Harper has a good idea: stop the stimulus spending and get started on tackling the deficit he created (remember we were in deficit BEFORE the recession). Reality is though that it's going to cost a ridiculous amount of money, $1 billion dollars, to provide security for the G8 and G20 meeting in Ontario this month. The good news for Canadians is that the money should be spent mostly in Canada employing police officers, soldiers and security specialists. Many of these fine people will be traveling to Toronto and Huntsville and will have to find accommodation in the local area. They may also decide to spend a little of their hard earned cash where they earn it. The $1 billion security budget is not technically stimulus spending but it should provide some stimulus to Southern Ontario nonetheless.

Bleed Red, Not Orange

2010-05-27T20:25:00.003-04:00

There's a lot of talk these days about a possible Liberal-NDP coalition. Mr. Rae has given new life to the talk by waxing poetic about his days propping up David Peterson in the 80's. I remain staunchly opposed to any sort of coalition deal with the NDP. It isn't treason as some Tories would have you believe, but it would be a grave error in judgment. 1985 provides few instructive lessons for us. The Tory dynasty in Ontario was coming to an end in 85 and Rae's decision to back Peterson only expedited that process. One could argue that they were merely making up for the inertia which had allowed Frank Miller to retain power in that election. Mr. Rae as future events indicate was always a bit of right wing NDPer to begin with. The current federal scene has none of these characteristics.

Jack Layton remains a fringe voice in Canadian politics. The NDP is a party stuck in the past supporting policies that would violate Canada's commitments to the WTO (check out #5), reopen NAFTA, institute massive corporate tax hikes in the midst of a fragile recovery and put the brakes on the burgeoning oil sands. These are not modern Liberal principles. The NDP is a party of ideology completely inconsistent with a successful Liberal Party of Canada. Honestly, in an era where many of the major social fights (abortion, same-sex marriage etc.) are behind us, there is a lot more similarity between the Liberals and Tories than there is between the NDP and the Liberals. I don't really believe Michael Ignatieff would ever pursue a deal with the socialists and it is some consolation as the Grits remain trapped in the 20's in the polls.

We must remember that the UK coalition is between the Lib-Dems and the Tories not the Lib-Dems and Labour. In fact, many European countries find themselves governed by centre-right coalitions. The key difference is that in Europe, Liberal parties are weak also-rans not prime contenders for power. It is always easier for the leading party to find a deal with the third or fourth party than it is for the two largest parties to get into bed together. The reason we don't have coalition governments in Canada is because our third and fourth parties are not serious coalition partners.

Local Power Outage

2010-05-18T07:33:00.000-04:00

Pundit's Guide has found the news hiding in plain sight (okay, slightly wonky Elections Canada tables). It seems a whole bunch of riding associations have failed to keep up with their paperwork and have been deregistered. In reality none of these riding associations were all that likely to elect anybody anyway. Only the Grits in Timmins -- James Bay could even be called competitive. Still, there's definitely some egg on some faces. Here are the guilty associations with their projected vote share as of May 13th:

Timmins -- James Bay (LIB) 25.84%
Esquimalt -- Juan de Fuca (GRN) 12.57%
Alfred Pellan (CON) 12.25%
St Catharine's (GRN) 9.9%
Don Valley East (GRN) 9.84
Chatham - Kent -- Essex (GRN) 9.68%
Windsor Tecumseh (GRN) 9.43%
Charlottetown (GRN) 8.26%
Crowfoot (LIB) 7.97%
Vegreville -- Wainwright (LIB) 7.45%

One of the reasons that we can't have local control over candidates is that local riding associations do stuff (or more accurately don't do stuff) like this. I wonder what Andrew Coyne and the protectors of the local voice would say should be done in ridings where there is no local riding association to nominate a candidate. Pundit's Guide has the overall number of registered EDA's with the NDP missing just one riding (Nunavut), the Grits short just the three above, the Tories short a shocking (for a governing party) 27, and the Greens missing 74 including all of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Projection Update: What Scandal Edition

2010-05-13T16:55:00.003-04:00

While the Guergis melodrama captivates everyone within a 5cm radius of Parliament Hill, the rest of the country could care less. At least, that's the conclusion I have to draw from my latest seat projections. The numbers:

National Picture:

CPC 129
LPC 89
BQ 55
NDP 35

Province-by-Province

BC: CPC 19, NDP 11, LPC 6
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB: CPC 7, LPC 4, NDP 3
North: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
ON: CPC 55, LPC 45, NDP 16
QC: BQ 55, LPC 14, CPC 6
NB: CPC 5, LPC 4, NDP 1
PE: LPC 4
NS: LPC 5, CPC 4, NDP 2
NL: LPC 5, CPC 1, NDP 1

It's Not The Economy, Stupid?

2010-05-11T09:20:00.000-04:00

The Economist thinks were cool again. Okay, no cover story with a sunglasses-toting moose but still the Economist praises Canada for its economic resiliency. The Economist is right. The Canadian economy appears, pending more debt-crises in Europe, to be recovering well. This is unreservedly good news for our country. The recovery is not just occurring on corporate balance sheets as the economy unexpectedly added 109,000 jobs in April. While a lot of that work was part-time, it's better than a kick in the teeth. To put it in perspective, the Americans were positively giddy about adding 290,000 jobs in a country ten times our size. All this good news presents a challenge to Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party of Canada.

You can criticize me for making such a cynical statement but it is true. For the past eighteen months it has been fairly obvious what the major issue would be for the LPC should another election occur. The YouTube clips that appeared last year demonstrated the fodder the LPC would have in going after the Tories on financial and fiscal mismanagement. A picture of a government being on the one hand disconnected from economic reality and on the other hand squandering hard earned Liberal surpluses would have made for a great narrative. The question now, is what is the new narrative the LPC is going to craft between now and the time of the next election (at most 30 months away). Fiscal mismanagement is still an issue. The Tories ran a deficit prior to the economic meltdown of 2008 and their plans to get out of the whole they've dug is laughable. However, if this kind of job growth is sustained, the government coffers will have more money in them than would have been previously anticipated. More importantly, in order to criticize the Tory deficit plan, we would need our own real deficit plan. A real plan would involve either tax hikes (GST anyone?) or spending cuts neither of which the Liberals would want to run an election on.

Mr. Ignatieff faces the Afghan detainee document question this week in the House of Commons. It probably isn't the kind of thing you go to the polls on. It just isn't a coffee table issue. Going back to social issues is, as was infamously pointed out, good political ground for the LPC but it isn't without hazards. Many of the issues which break the LPC's way (abortion, gay marriage etc.) are, in the mind of most Canadians, settled questions. There's no currency to it. Harper's justice legislation is poor policy but once again mostly poor political fodder. Although I could see "Stephen Harper wants to put your child behind bars" coming out in a late campaign attack ad. None of these issues have really grabbed the Canadian public even if they have angered some people in the chattering classes. In general, the Tory government is not all that enthused about passing controversial legislation or really any legislation, which even in a majority government, presents some challenges to the opposition.

Ignatieff has piecemeal policy proposals which are supposed to be close to being a platform. That may be an even tougher road to hoe as Canadian opposition parties are rarely elected because they are merely preferable. Usually, the case has to be made that the other guys are incompetent, corrupt or both AND that the opposition is preferable. If the economic recovery continues, Michael Ignatieff is left with the unenviable task of making that case to the Canadian public without his economic trump card. Maybe that's why the Prince of Darkness decided he'd be better off helping defend Dalton McGuinty.

Clegg Looks For Coalition With Socialists and Separatists

2010-05-10T13:33:00.002-04:00

The resignation this afternoon of Gordon Brown as Labour leader has fueled speculation that a deal may be possible which would see the Labour Party remain in government in coalition with Nick Clegg and the support of presumably one or more nationalist parties. Of course it is possible that Clegg is opening up negotiations with Labour in the hopes of winning concessions on what appear to be shockingly small stumbling blocks in a deal with the Tories. How exactly a Lib-Con coalition would vote on any sort of EU-related question is completely unimaginable.

UK Votes: The Last Shall Be First

2010-05-07T11:53:00.003-04:00

Nick Clegg had an absolutely abysmal night last night as Lib-Dem support evaporated into thin air. The Tories of David Cameron are likely to form a government with their large plurality. However, that is dependent on Clegg agreeing to support the Tories at least in the near term. So, through the magic of minority government Mr. Clegg gets a considerable amount of power today. Unsurprisingly, the Lib-Dems want more minority governments - or as the Brits call them hung parliaments - like this one so they can continue to be the kingmaker. So, the question is what would parliament look like under PR? I decided to run a quick and dirty PR projection. Two assumptions: 1. Each nation (England, Scotland, Wales, N. Ireland) is administered separately. 2. The minimum threshold is a fairly average 5% of the vote in the given nation. Here we go:

Conservatives: 251
Labour: 203
Liberal-Democrats: 161
SNP: 12
Plaid Cymru: 5
DUP: 5
Sinn Fein: 5
SDLP: 3
UCU: 3
Alliance: 2

Interesting to note that the Green Party which won a seat in Brighton last night would be shut out of a PR based parliament for getting only 1% of the vote. Likewise, the independent winner in Northern Ireland would be out. If you lowered the threshold to 3% UKIP would have won seats in England. While this parliament would give Gordon Brown a better shot of staying on, it isn't all that much more functional than the one that was actually elected.

Helena Guergis and Canadian Nominations

2010-05-04T08:55:00.000-04:00

Andrew Coyne has weighed in on the fight brewing in Simcoe-Grey over the CPC's ousting of Helena Guergis as the nominated candidate for the next election. Mr. Coyne, as is so often the case, has decided to stand on principle in the face of reality. The principle is that local constituents should decide who is their next candidate for election. There's nothing wrong with that idea in theory. In fact, it becomes an absolute mess. Political parties are very strange entities in Canada. While heavily regulated, they remain at their core private clubs working in the public spheres. Mr. Coyne points to the requirement of candidates to receive the written endorsement of a party leader in order to stand for election as an affront to local democracy. It's not. The regulation doesn't come from any of the political parties but rather from Elections Canada. The reason is pretty simple: during a federal election, Elections Canada doesn't have the time to monitor the nomination process of the local Marijuana Party. Thus, they ask any candidate who claims to be the Marijuana Party candidate to receive the endorsement of his or her leader proving that they are the real candidate and not just trying to use the party's name to advance their cause or confuse voters. That way they know the candidate is actually nominated.

Now, this rule can be used by party leaders to veto unwanted candidates. It's not why the rule exists, but it can be used that way. While I agree that local members should have the power in nominating candidates, there has to be a limit. Political parties need to be able to remove candidates who have ceased to represent the best interest of the party. In the course of a federal election, speed is crucial. If a candidate is embarrassing the party, they need to be removed in short order. It may not be possible to schedule, announce and hold a new nomination meeting in order to get that candidate approved. When Sir John A. was the Conservative Party candidate (in numerous ridings at once), the media in Halifax wasn't reporting what his candidate in Vancouver said at a community meeting that morning. There wasn't video on the internet showing his candidate in Windsor making a fool of himself (or Sir John A. debating drunk off his rear-end). The media cannot expect perfect discipline from political parties and expect free-for-all nomination processes. They are mutually exclusive. Likewise, in a system with short election periods which may occur at any time, you cannot have an American style open nomination process.

Canadian political parties are very small clubs and they operate as such. However, our system allows for the election of independent candidates. If people in Simcoe-Grey want Helena Guergis to continue to serve as their MP after the next election, I wholeheartedly encourage them to start working on an independent campaign. Bill Casey and Chuck Cadman have both done it successfully after falling out with the Tories. Our first-past-the-post system allows independent candidates to win election and serve their constituents in the House of Commons. The party leader only controls his or her caucus members if they don't feel they can be elected without the party banner at their back.

Projection Update: May Edition

2010-05-03T08:04:00.000-04:00

It's been a significant amount of time since I've done a projection update. They take longer when I haven't been keeping my polling aggregate up to date with the latest polls and that tends to put a bit of inertia in the works when I haven't put one out in a while. At any rate, I finally bit the bullet and got it done. This is based on 9 national polls taken in the last 30 days. Significant changes from my last update a couple months ago see the Tories re-open a wide margin with most of the gains coming in Ontario. The numbers follow:

National Picture

CPC 128
LPC 89
BQ 55
NDP 36

Province-by-Province

British Columbia: CPC 19, NDP 11, LPC 6
Alberta: CPC 28
Saskatchewan: CPC 13, LPC 1
Manitoba: CPC 7, LPC 4, NDP 3
North: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
Ontario: CPC 45, LPC 44, NDP 17
Québec: BQ 55, LPC 14, CPC 6
New Brunswick: CPC 5, LPC 4, NDP 1
PEI: LPC 4
Nova Scotia: LPC 5, CPC 4, NDP 2
Newfoundland and Labrador: LPC 6, NDP 1

Riding -by- Riding

Seat Projection - May 3

Upcoming By-Election Projections

2010-05-02T17:29:00.002-04:00

A full projection update is on its way tomorrow. I thought I'd post my projection for the newly vacated riding of Winnipeg North and the possibly soon to be vacated riding of Vaughan. First the NDP stronghold of Winnipeg North:

Winnipeg North:

NDP 57.19%
LPC 17.26%
CPC 14.44%
GPC 9.79%

Vaughan:

LPC 51.33%
CPC 27.79%
GPC 10.74%
NDP 8.33%

Also, if the Tories are polling in embattled Helena Guergis' riding of Simcoe-Grey, here's what they should have been finding in terms of party preference if it wasn't for the scandal:

CPC 48.68%
LPC 24.18
GPC 13.04
NDP 10.21%

This might move to the near the top of my list if I were the Green Party of Canada trying to find winnable ridings. Southwestern Ontario has been fertile turf for the party and this sort of scandal is the kind of thing which drives people to the Greens.

Document Torture

2010-04-28T11:10:00.002-04:00

The question of whether or not the Canadian military handed over prisoners to Afghan-run prisons when they had full knowledge or should have had full knowledge that those prisons engaged in torture is fundamentally not a political question. The whole thing stinks of a bureaucratic snafu not political interference. That's why, in my opinion, the issue has never moved the polls. After all, what exactly does the Harper government have to gain from torturing Afghan prisoners? This isn't the Bush justice department we're talking about. If Harper is covering something up, it is likely an unwillingness to expose the mission to criticism by talking about torture and therefore not changing the status quo. That's more politically motivated stupidity than actual malicious intent. However, for some unknown and unknowable reason Harper refuses to just let the documents be released.

That refusal has forced us to revisit via the right of parliament to sensitive information the issue of growing executive power. The privilege motion brought by Mr. Lee et al. is the sort of thing that Leader of the Opposition Stephen Harper would have championed. He'd be leading the fight on this today, if he didn't happen to be in power. Conversely, Michael Ignatieff, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe would likely be trying to cover their rear-ends if they were in power. Outside of the lunacy of Paul Martin's Gomery Inquiry, governments in this country have made a habit of avoiding giving parliament the information it wants. Even during Gomery, the government used the existence of the inquiry as an excuse to avoid answering tough sponsorship scandal questions. What's new here is that Harper failed to get this thing far enough away from parliament to avoid further questions. Apparently, his "prorogue and hope it disappears" strategy failed and the inquiry called as plan B wasn't broad enough in scope to deflect the questions. While it is satisfying to hear the Speaker remind us that the legislative branch of government still has some power, this may be a Pyrrhic victory for fans of parliamentary power. There's no convincing evidence that any political party is interested in unraveling the ever increasing power of the Canadian executive branch, certainly not once they gain power. Forcing the government to unredact some documents won't change the overall trend.

Nothing Like Winnipeg in the Summer

2010-04-28T08:47:00.001-04:00

Great weather for a by-election... just ignore the mosquitoes. Yes, Judy Wasylycia-Leis is quitting as MP for Winnipeg North effective May 1st. If Harper decides not to play games with the timing, the by-election could happen as early as this summer. This should really be a walk-over for the NDP. My massively outdated latest projection (I'll get around to a new one at some point), shows the NDP winning Winnipeg North by a whopping 41.5 points. Still, if either the Grits or the Tories are going to make inroads in the riding, now is the time. Of course, I suppose this all could be rendered moot by the government falling over the whole document mess. It would be very Canadian for the government to fall on what is at root a point of procedure.

Speaker Tells Both Sides To Grow Up

2010-04-27T16:05:00.003-04:00

Unsurprisingly, Peter Milliken has tried to avoid making a decision on the Afghan detainee document fiasco. Milliken has given the two sides two weeks to figure something that's agreeable to both sides before he rules the government in contempt of parliament. Two weeks for Harper, Ignatieff et al. to find a compromise. If they don't, Ottawa will go into overdrive. The question for Mr. Ignatieff is can a government be in contempt of parliament but still have the confidence of the house? How he answers that question will affect the negotiations in the next couple weeks and potentially the course of Canadian history if the negotiations fail.

Hungary Votes 2010

2010-04-26T09:11:00.001-04:00

There are a ton of elections going on in the EU this year. Poland, the UK, Sweden and Hungary are among the countries holding elections this year. While most of the focus has been on the UK, Hungary has just elected a new government. The last government was pretty much doomed from day 1 after the Prime Minister was caught on tape saying he lied to the public about the state of the public purse to get elected. I happened to be in Budapest during the ensuing protests in the fall of 2006 and can't say I'm surprised that the ruling socialist party was reduced to 15% of the vote. Hungary is in dire straits and has been for a while. The country was bailed out by the IMF in 2008. That loan is technically due back in the fall. Greece's problems are probably a larger concern for Europe but the EU never really dealt with the collapses in Hungary and the Baltics in 2008. The amount of help being offered Greece undoubtedly receives a poor response in the streets of Budapest and Riga.

Perhaps most concerning about this election result is the significant showing by the far-right Jobbik party which earned 12% of the vote. That's good for 47 seats and third place in Hungary's parliament. It is chilling to see a party affiliated with racist thugs with that level of support in Europe. When Jobbik received similar support during EU parliamentary elections it was dismissed by some because it was an almost irrelevant election and they would form a tiny part of the parliament. This is harder to dismiss. The spectre of the far right in Europe is real and needs to be confronted.

UK Votes 2010: The Lib-Dems Strike Back

2010-04-24T10:50:00.000-04:00

The United Kingdom is less than two weeks away from a national election and there are strange things afoot in the motherland. The consensus going into this election is that David Cameron and the Conservatives were going to sweep Gordon Brown out of office. Then something strange happened: the Liberal Democrats under leader Nick Clegg started to gain momentum. The momentum has picked up in the wake of Clegg being declared the winner in the first two leadership debates. Now Clegg's party is sitting second in the BBC's poll of polls.

I tend to like Liberal-Democratic parties in Europe for a whole bunch of ideological similarity reasons. I do have one major beef with the Lib-Dems and that is their strong support for the EU. In the context of the crisis in Greece, it is surprising to me that the Lib-Dems pro-EU stance isn't coming under more scrutiny. My guess is the Lib-Dem support is as much a "none of the above" thing as anything else and therefore people don't care that he'd give all their tax dollars to the delinquents in Athens.

Hudak Attacks Harris Legacy

2010-04-14T09:56:00.000-04:00

History can be really annoying in politics. Particularly, if you forget it exists. See, back when Mike Harris was the premier of Ontario, he introduced the entirely sensible idea of tying the size of the Ontario legislature to the size of Ontario's delegation in the House of Commons. Now, admittedly one of the reasons Harris did this to reduce the number of MPP's at Queen's Park. Another key reason was that it allowed Elections Ontario to avoid the time consuming and expensive work of drawing electoral boundaries that would end up being virtually identical to what Elections Canada had done. In other words, eliminate redundant government work. This was all part of the Common Sense Revolution Tim Hudak and the current crop of PC's at Queen's Park claim to love so much. Now the PC's are up in arms because McGuinty is talking about going back to the principle established by Harris and adding 18 new seats for the 2015 election to match the anticipated move in Ottawa. Damn that Mike Harris and his Liberal ways!

Side Note: The NDP probably haven't looked at population estimates lately or aren't very good at math. It is extraordinarily unlikely that any new seats would be added in Northern Ontario to "divide up some of the huge northern ridings in Ontario" as the article says.

Future Ridings by Party

2010-04-13T13:44:00.002-04:00

As requested here is the party-by-party breakdown for the regions getting new seats under the Tory redistribution plan. What I've done is worked out what percentage of the extra voters in each region went to each party in the last election. This is different from the regional results as the smaller ridings have basically no impact. You only get credit for votes in ridings with over 108,000 residents because it is these people that will be moved into the new ridings. Elections Canada tends to prefer to keep existing ridings as is whenever possible. I will list the region following by the percentage of votes anticipated for each party in the new ridings, followed finally by my estimate of what those percentages mean in seats.

Alberta:

Calgary (2 seats): CPC 62.5%, LPC 15.7%, GPC 10.2%, NDP 8.3%
RESULT: CPC 2
Edmonton (2 seats): CPC 58.9%, LPC 15.1%, NDP 15.1%, GPC 7.5%
RESULT: CPC 2
Rural Alberta (1 seat): CPC 72.2%, NDP 12.7%, GPC 8.9%, LPC 5.1%
RESULT: CPC 1

British Columbia:

Lower Mainland (2 seats): CPC 50.5%, NDP 22.3%, LPC 19.1%, GPC 6.9%
RESULT: CPC 2
Vancouver (3 seats): CPC 39.5%, LPC 27.9%, NDP 21.9%, GPC 10%
RESULT: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
Vancouver Island (2 seats): CPC 39.7%, NDP 31.8%, LPC 17.9%, GPC 9.9%
RESULT: CPC 1, NDP 1

Ontario:

East (3 seats): CPC 49.2%, LPC 28.6,% NDP 13.1%, GPC 9.1%
RESULT: CPC 2, LPC 1
905/Golden Horseshoe (10 seats): CPC 40.3%, LPC 37.6%, NDP 14.5%, GPC 6.5%
RESULT: CPC 5, LPC 5
Southwest (3 seats): CPC 40%, LPC 26.1%, NDP 20.7%, GPC 9.1%
RESULT: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
Toronto (2 seats): LPC 49.7%, CPC 29.3%, NDP 13.9, GPC 6.5
RESULT: LPC 2

This gives us national increasese as follows based on the 2008 election:

CPC 17, LPC 10, NDP 3

Future Riding Breakdown

2010-04-09T17:22:00.002-04:00

In order to understand what impact the proposed new ridings would have on the parliament of Canada, we need to know where the seats are going to be. A regional breakdown of where the seats are going helps. Thus, I've calculated out which regions (these are the electionprediction.org regions that I've lifted for my projections) have earned new seats. First in Alberta which is expected to jump from 28 to 33:

Calgary:
Current: 8
Proposed: 10

Edmonton:
Current: 8
Proposed: 10

Rural:
Current: 12
Proposed: 13

British Columbia which is proposed to go from 36 to 43 seats breaks down as follows:

Interior:
Current: 10
Proposed: 10

Lower Mainland:
Current: 7
Proposed: 9

Vancouver:
Current: 13
Proposed: 16

Vancouver Island:
Current: 6
Proposed: 8

Ontario is much more complicated because of Northern Ontario. On a pure rep by pop basis Northern Ontario should lose about 3.5 of its current 11 seats (I include Parry Sound-Muskoka in the 11). Obviously, that's unlikely to happen as Northern Ontario has been consistently over represented for years. So if we take Northern Ontario at 11 seats we get the following breakdown for the new 124 seats:

Eastern:
Current: 15
Proposed: 18

Golden Horseshoe/905
Current: 34
Proposed: 44

Northern
Current: 11
Proposed: 11

Southwestern:
Current: 24
Proposed: 27

Toronto:
Current: 22
Proposed: 24

If Northern Ontario were to lose 3 seats, the gainers would be the Golden Horseshoe/905 (2) and Southwestern (1).

The Role of Dr. House Will Be Played by Andrew Coyne

2010-04-07T15:30:00.003-04:00

Andrew Coyne has a fascinating piece up at macleans.ca about the future of the Liberal Party. Coyne's diagnosis of the problems facing the LPC is pretty close to spot on, his prescription may kill the patient. Coyne makes a long list of suggestions about policy issues for the party to champion. As a member in good standing of the Liberal Party of Canada, I can't say I agree with most of Coyne's list. In fact, I'd be severely tempted to leave the party if it adopted this kind of agenda. Let's go down the list.

Democratic Reform: The biggest question on this one is of course, why? While there are certainly Liberal proponents of reform, the issue is not a vote-getter. Electoral reform is a terrible issue to try to run on if you are, as Mr. Coyne accurately points out, trying to differentiate yourself from the NDP and the Greens on the left. Senate reform is a bit of a political white whale in my mind. Finally, while leadership and nomination rules are important I don't believe in dictating to political parties how they run what are fundamentally internal matters.
Human Rights Commission and Hate Speech: This looks like it's straight out of the Tory playbook. To me the whole human rights commission controversy is all not-so-vaguely anti-Muslim. That's not a direction for any political party, particularly a party as committed to multiculturalism as the LPC. What's the tagline: If you like hate speech, Vote for Ezra Levant and the Liberal Party of Canada?
Agricultural Import Tariff Reduction: I'm actually all for this one philosophically. Tariffs on agriculture make food more expensive for Canadians and directly contribute to the starvation of the third world. Having said all that, a party without a whole bunch of rural seats outside of Atlantic Canada would be raked over the coals if it went after farmers. A Tory majority government is probably the only way this could even theoretically happen.
Flat Tax and Guaranteed Income: While this would be consistent with the LPC's history of being simultaneously right wing and left wing, I can't bring these two ideas together philosophically. More importantly, they're both bad ideas. In order to avoid bankrupting the government any flat tax would have to be imposed at a higher level than that of the lowest tax bracket. That means higher taxes for Canada's poor. Guaranteed income would help the poor but it is fundamentally inflationary and doesn't really encourage people to get a job.
CPP Privatization: Wait, so the LPC is supposed to take policy advice from George W. Bush? CPP is by all accounts in decent shape, especially relative to similar programs in other countries. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Carbon Tax: Um. NO! You can go through my archives and find my arguments about why I don't think it's great environmental policy. More importantly, if the point of all this is political revival, we know it's a dud politically.

Tories Propose Major Government Expansion

2010-04-01T14:56:00.003-04:00

Okay, so maybe that's a little unfair. Still, it's an interesting idea being proposed by the Minister of State for Democratic Reform. I criticized the Tories the last time they tried to change the way the house is distributed because they were essentially going to screw Ontario. They have seen the error of their ways with the new bill and Ontario will get a fair shake. However, the bill will see the House of Commons grow substantially with no end in sight. The major change here is switching out the old formula for determining how many seats a province gets with a new set maximum number of 108,000 people per riding. The difference is that by the time the new census is worked through (probably 2013) the house would add 23 seats more than it would have under the current system. The strange thing is that the arbitrary 108,000 number is significantly higher than the roughly 104,000 people per riding in Québec which was the benchmark of the old Tory bill.

It's still a lot of new seats and it does not bode particularly well for keeping the House in some sort of check going forward. To give you an idea, Ontario has grown at a rate of basically one whole seat per year over the past five years. If current growth rates hold, Québec may be entitled to 76 or 77 seats come the 2021 census. You could theoretically raise the 108,000 ceiling in the future to try to check the growth but that would in essence create the same problem that you had before whereby fast growing provinces are curbed while slower growing provinces hold on to their seats based on the constitutional provision that provinces aren't allowed to lose seats. It would be really nice if we could figure out a way to get rep by pop without having to constantly wedge seats into the House of Commons.

Clinton States Obvious; Canadian Media Loses It

2010-03-30T08:04:00.000-04:00

Diplomacy can be a tricky thing. Stephen Harper is learning that the hard way this week after his failed arctic meeting. Hillary Clinton made what would seem to be fairly innocuous comments about theoretically wanting the Canadian military to stay on in Afghanistan. Of course the Americans would like to continue to have forces from a country that has a) been in Afghanistan for almost a decade b) been willing to pay the ultimate price in Afghanistan's most dangerous areas unlike certain NATO partners. From the US perspective, this is common sense. Well, that is unless you read the Canadian media response to Clinton's comments. What is probably fueling the Canadian media firestorm is that the Conservative government has been not so quietly hinting for a while now that they would like to extend the Afghan mission if only Parliament would let them. How much of that sentiment is driven by a desire to look tough and how much is based on the Tories actually wanting to extend the mission isn't entirely clear. The politics of extension are murky at best when you consider Ignatieff's unequivocal love of all things peacekeeping.

The politics are interesting but everyone seems to be forgetting one key part of the story. The Canadian military has already said that it effectively can't continue the mission in Afghanistan beyond 2011. It doesn't have the available personnel or equipment to sustain the mission any longer. It needs a break. Whether or not Canada could sustain a smaller non-combat role is a different question, but we probably shouldn't be envisioning another five years in Kandahar here. Thank God for that. I personally cannot wait for the day when our brave men and women can come home safely. February 2011 cannot come soon enough.

Nobel Committee Searching for Topper

2010-03-25T00:07:00.002-04:00

Surely if talking about peace gets you the Nobel prize, making significant nuclear arms cuts should be enough to for the Nobel Committee to rename the peace prize after President Obama. Or perhaps Nobel could award Obama the 2nd Annual C. Montgomery Burns Award for Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Excellence. It is a nuke deal after all.

Empty Symbolism Hour is Back

2010-03-24T08:13:00.000-04:00

Remember Earth Hour? It's back. In honour of Earth Day? Week? Month? Fortnight?, people around the world will sit in the dark for sixty minutes. This is somehow supposed to stop global warming or raise awareness of people's personal ability to stop global warming or something like that. It is a real shame that the environmental movement is leading the climate change fight. This movement is filled with professional protesters and very few pragmatic politicians. What we need is a binding international treaty with some teeth. Without that no amount of people power is going to stop global warming. No amount of people sitting in the dark is going to make countries make the tough choices they need to make to avert climate change. All this stunt accomplishes is to provide the average person out there a false sense that they've done their part. The sooner Earth Hour and the other Movement stunts are gone from the debate, the sooner we'll have a chance to stop climate change.

That's A Tad Embarassing

2010-03-24T00:07:00.002-04:00

It's one thing for a couple of people to vote the wrong the way on something, it happens. It really shouldn't be your front bench. I'm sure House leader Ralph Goodale and Whip Rodger Cuzner are suitably embarassed.

Health Care Passed in US; Winter Weather Warnings in Hell

2010-03-22T09:42:00.000-04:00

The Dems get something passed by passing the weaker Senate bill through the House. Politically, the most important thing is probably that they got something done. The American people wanted action, the got action last night.

US Gets Hit With A BRIC

2010-03-10T09:08:00.001-05:00

Stephen Harper has been a huge proponent of increasing Canada's presence in the Americas. In fact, he's been criticized for making a priority of the Americas over everything else. Well, here's Harper's opportunity to actually do something to strengthen Canada's relationship with the continent's other superpower, Brazil. See, there's a trade war a-brewing between the US and Brazil over US cotton subsidies. The US is unlikely to budge because, well, have you watched the US Senate lately? Brazil probably sees this as an opportunity to ween itself from America's influence and has a vested (all puns intended) interested in protecting its own cotton industry. The great news is Canada doesn't produce a whole lot of cotton and has no horse in this whole trade spat. The bad news is that the powers of business tend to get these sorts of things settled rather quickly. So, while the iron is hot and American goods are costing an arm and a leg, let's get a Team Canada trade mission to Brazil. Increase Canadian exports, revive manufacturing, create jobs? Check, check, check. This isn't political this is just good business.

Consensus!

2010-03-07T13:53:00.002-05:00

In Iceland. The tiny Atlantic nation has rejected the original bailout plan offered to them by the UK and the Netherlands. They did so in a manner that is statistically improbable. The tally as of writing was 93% against, 2% for and 5% spoiled ballots. Unlike a drowning shipwreck victim refusing a life-jacket, Iceland is expected to actually be better off for telling the Europeans off.

Stephen Harper's New Recalibrated Priorities

2010-03-03T16:15:00.002-05:00

Senior's Day!
More War Memorials!
Changing the Words to the National Anthem! (English only)
Vimy Ridge Day!
Protect Arctic Sovereignty... From Space!
Teach Canadians About the War of 1812!
C. Montgomery Burns Award for Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Excellence... or Prime Ministerial Award for Volunteerism! (take that Governor General!)

Now that was well worth the wait!

Olympics: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

2010-03-01T10:46:00.000-05:00

Because no one wants to return to real life quite yet, a gratuitous Olympics post is in order.

The Good:

14 Gold, 7 Silver, 5 Bronze: The Men's Hockey Team did what they had to do yesterday: win gold so that the other 13 champions wouldn't be drowned out by the nation tearing its hair out. Go Canada Go.
Joannie Rochette: Courage, personified.
Consortium Wall to Wall Coverage: Want to see the first qualifying run for the women's ski cross? No? We'll show it to you anyway. I don't think there was a single event they failed to cover. Choice is good.
The Hockey Panel: Sure Bob Mackenzie occasionally looked like he wanted to punch Nick Kypreos in the face, but they provided decent insight and actually had some nice debates.
Humour at the Closing Ceremonies: From Shatner to the giant beavers, Canadian comedy at its self deprecating best.

The Bad:

4th and 5th Place Finishes: Being fourth or fifth best in the world at something is an amazing achievement. Unfortunately, there are no medals awarded for such achievements.
The Death on The Track: Words don't really add up here.
The Opening Ceremonies: I didn't know something could be boring and alienate half the country at the same time.
Canadian Pop Stars: My ears, my precious ears! No wonder NBC cut away... speaking of NBC:
NBC's Olympic Coverage: Commentary of NBC's Olympic coverage has been taped and will be aired at some point in the future. You already know it sucked.
Holding the Winter Games in Spring: I love Vancouver, but they don't get winter out there.

The Ugly:

Alpine Canada and the Rest of Canada's Crumbling Medal Hopefuls: Alpine Canada came home with a giant goose egg. Only a couple of more games and they can join Jeremy Wootherspoon in Canadian Olympic lore.
Wayne Gretzky's Pick-Up Truck Adventure: Open the door? Nah. Provide Security? Nah. Make sure this route is quick? Nah.
Jack Layton's Camera Mugging: Truly disgusting.
Sportsnet Play-by-Play People: Gerry Dobson is a poor play-by-play guy for soccer games, which is what he specializes in. What made them think he'd do better at Alpine? Jamie Campbell isn't good enough to call a Jays blow out in the dog days of summer, but the ideal candidate to call Canada's first gold medal at home?
The Foreign Press: The less than perfect start gave much of the foreign press the idea that these games were going to be the worst ever. They started writing that narrative and continued in spite of all evidence to the contrary.

Fair Vote Canada Dumps Direct Democracy

2010-02-23T14:19:00.002-05:00

Fair Vote Canada appears to be changing its tactics. After embarrassing referendum defeats in PEI, Ontario and British Columbia, the organization dedicated to changing Canada's electoral system appears to be abandoning its drive for a national referendum. Instead FVC is now calling for a "public consultation" followed by a quickie amendment to the elections act. Of course that amendment would be passed by a House of Commons that is, to their minds, illegitimate but never you mind. The ends justify the means for these people. I guess that silent majority FVC dreams is out there is just too silent.

Projection Update: Olympic Edition

2010-02-20T11:04:00.000-05:00

With the glow of the Olympic torch obscuring even the brightest of Canada's political flames, it is perhaps unsurprising that my seat projection is virtually unchanged. One lonely seat in Ontario goes from the Liberals to the Tories in the wake of last few Tory leaning polls. This projection can effectively be considered a decent baseline to measure any sort of Olympic bump. The numbers as always:

National Picture

CPC 118
LPC 106
BQ 52
NDP 32

Province by Province:
BC: CPC 18, NDP 11, LPC 7
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB: CPC 7, LPC 4, NDP 3
NORTH: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
ON: LPC 54, CPC 39, NDP 13
QC: BQ 52, LPC 17, CPC 6
NB: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 1
NS: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 2
PE: LPC 4
NL: LPC 6, NDP 1

Some Persepctive

2010-02-19T01:21:00.002-05:00

I'll try to get a projection update out sometime soon. I just wanted to point out that while this probably constitutes a national crisis in Canada, other parts of the world are not nearly so lucky. We are truly blessed.

When Will We Learn...

2010-02-08T08:20:00.000-05:00

Not to print exit polls with no substantive backing in a close election. This is Ukraine. This is Viktor Yanukovitch who I believe won the last election based on exit polls. He may or may not have won this one. Can we wait for you know real results and maybe, some confirmation that this thing wasn't rigged before we jump to any conclusions? Particularly, when a run-off election between two candidates ends up with a tally of 49-45 or just 94% of the vote. Six percent spoiled ballots would be a huge and frankly, contestable number.

Projection Update: Plenty of Polls Edition

2010-02-04T14:07:00.003-05:00

I do my polling aggregate based on all polls in the last thirty days. There have been 11 polls in the last thirty days surveying more than 21,000 people. While the stats people will tell you that you only need so many for a representative sample, I like large samples. Call it a weakness. At any rate, there's lots of different polls taken into this projection, hopefully leading to a more accurate projection, especially considering that I use regionals in my projection. I'll give you the popular vote percentages for the parties in brackets (no regional percentages for the North). I give you percentages to two decimal places not because it's accurate to two decimal places, but because that's what the projections are based off of. If the implied accuracy bothers you, round up and forget about it. Without further ado the numbers:

National Picture:

CPC 117 (31.76%)
LPC 107 (30.73%)
BQ 52 (9.26)
NDP 32 (15.77)
GPC 0 (10.37)

Province by Province:

BC: CPC 18 (33.15%), NDP 11 (23.98%), LPC 7 (26.27%), GPC 0 (14.07%)
AB: CPC 28 (52.88%), LPC 0 (19.18%), GPC 0 (12.41%), NDP 0 (10.71%)
SK: CPC 13 (47.44%), LPC 1 (18.48%), NDP 0 (24.43%), GPC 0 (6.45%)
MB: CPC 7 (42.85%), LPC 4 (22.44%), NDP 3 (24.48%), GPC 0 (8.97%)
NORTH: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1, GPC 0
ON: LPC 55 (38.45%), CPC 38 (33.65%), NDP 13 (14.82%), GPC 0 (11.16%)
QC: BQ 52 (37.42%), LPC 17 (26.56%), CPC 6 (16.01%), NDP 0 (10.39%), GPC 0 (7.92%)
NB: LPC 6 (35.8%), CPC 3 (35.42%), NDP 1 (20.81%), GPC 0 (7.35%)
NS: LPC 6 (32.87%), CPC 3 (27.99%), NDP 2 (28.17%), GPC 0 (8.62%)
PE: LPC 4 (47.02%), CPC 0 (33.37%), NDP 0 (10.28%), GPC 0 (7.98%)
NL: LPC 6 (42.19%), NDP 1 (20.45%), CPC 0 (31.17%), GPC 0 (2.56%)

Riding by Riding:

Projection Update - February 4th

Tories Channel Charles Barkley

2010-02-03T20:38:00.002-05:00

I'm sorry, I nearly fell out of my chair laughing when I saw this quote in Jane Taber's latest on the Conservatives canceling a couple of scheduled breaks in the upcoming parliamentary session :

“We take it for granted that they will agree,” a senior government official told The Globe. “Anything less would be uncivilized.”

For those of you who didn't immediately think of deodorant:

Of slighly less humorous interest is that the plan includes canceling the Easter break which is strange coming from a government chock full of fairly religious Christians.

Actions Speak Louder Than Op-Eds

2010-01-27T09:51:00.000-05:00

Stephen Harper has announced (in the Toronto Star of all places) that he will now try to encourage the UN to focus efforts on helping prevent infant mortality and deaths during pregnancy and childbirth. While I applaud the Prime Minister's sentiment, this is one of heck of a Saul on the road to Damascus conversion. It will shock no one that a disproportionate amount of infant mortality is centred in the sub-Saharan Africa. Under Stephen Harper, Canada has abandoned sub-Saharan Africa in favour of more work in the Americas. While that is a defensible foreign policy position, it does not set up the Prime Minister well to actually do anything to solve the problems he outlines in his article. I won't even get into the question of how exactly he's going to pay for such an ambitious foreign aid agenda.

Seat Projection Update: Now With Real Competition

2010-01-21T17:25:00.004-05:00

The polls are getting downright close as the petty prorogation plan persists in pestering the parliamentary poo-bah. My seat projection is also shifting accordingly with major swings in Ontario, Manitoba, and New Brunsiwck.

National:

CPC 121
LPC 102
BQ 53
NDP 32

Province-by-Province

BC: CPC 19, NDP 11, LPC 6
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB: CPC 7, LPC 4, NDP 3
North: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
ON: LPC 53, CPC 40, NDP 13
PQ: BQ 53, LPC 15, CPC 7
NB: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 1
NS: LPC 6, CPC 3, NDP 2
PE: LPC 4
NL: LPC 6, NDP 1

Riding By Riding:
Seat Projection Jan 21 2010

Thursday Links and Thoughts

2010-01-21T09:12:00.000-05:00

Some quick thoughts and under reported stories for this Thursday morning:

I hope Scott Brown enjoys his 36 months in the US Senate. There's little chance he can retain Massachusetts in a Presidential election year (the seat's up in 2012). Pathetic performance by the Dems up in the Bay State.
Can we pay attention to stories like this one yet? Religious tensions and conflicts in Africa are more important than most of the North American media would say. Nigeria is so important economically, politically, and psychologically to West Africa and the continent as a whole. This conflict rages while the President recovers from being rumoured dead.
Robert Ghiz has decided that Shawn Graham is taking too much of the political flak out east. He's decided to join in.
And by the end of the month, they meant whenever.
We're still not entirely clear why all the bees are dying. Not enough flower power?
Ah, the sounds of a perfectly functioning coalition government doing exactly what the people want. The fact that the Germans are just now figuring out how screwed they are, four months after the election is over is somewhat disturbing. Not a good trend for Canadian Liberals.
Yes Virginia, Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal. That's why stories like this don't scare the living crap out of me. I'm not hyperventilating, I'm sighing my relief.
Are you ready to see the political fringes of Europe at work? Because the European Parliament isn't crazy enough, the Lisbon Treaty (no, nobody actually read the thing) allows for citizen's initiatives.

Orange is SOOO 2004

2010-01-18T08:07:00.000-05:00

Viktor Yuschenko, the once-poisoned President of Ukraine has been eliminated after the first ballot of the Ukrainian Presidential election. Former PM Viktor Yanukovitch (the Pro-Russia guy Yuschenko beat in 2004) leads current PM Yulia Tymoshenko 38%-24% heading into the run-off. I would think Yuschenko's support would go to Tymoshenko before Yanukovitch but then again they may be so angry with Tymoshenko for running against her former running mate that they'll vote for Yanukovitch. I really don't know. Whoever wins, the country is likely to get a lot closer to Russia over the next term. I kind of wish Elections Canada took this approach to voter turnout, (from the BBC): "In the eastern city of Donetsk, one polling station encouraged voters with vodka and sausage." Booze and meat! Now that's a reason to vote!

Projection Update: January 2010

2010-01-14T10:18:00.000-05:00

With a few polls out, we have what I would consider the bare minimum to run a projection. A little drop in the polls for the Tories results in a drop in their projection. André Arthur is a winner in this projection.

National:

CPC 134
LPC 87
BQ 52
NDP 34
IND 1

Province by Province:

BC: CPC 19, NDP 11, LPC 6
AB: CPC 28
SK: CPC 13, LPC 1
MB: CPC 10, NDP 3, LPC 1
North: CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1
ON: LPC 46, CPC 45, NDP 15
PQ: BQ 52, LPC 15, CPC 7, IND 1
NB: CPC 6, LPC 3, NDP 1
NS: LPC 5, CPC 4, NDP 2
PE: LPC 4
NL: LPC 5, CPC 1, NDP 1

Seat Projection

Riding Ratings