tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31099203.post8681529784446647217..comments2023-07-23T04:50:58.496-04:00Comments on All Politics Is Local: G20: Summit of Doomed Leaders?Aaron Ginsberghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10586651764906428965noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31099203.post-45908626295540347272009-04-04T22:44:00.000-04:002009-04-04T22:44:00.000-04:00Good summary on the whole here. I think Brown is ...Good summary on the whole here. I think Brown is almost certain to lose the next British election, although a hung parliament is at least still possible. In the case of Germany, Merkel might actually come out the winner here since the FDP has surged in the polls and they are considered a preferable coalition partner to the current SPD. A Red-Green coalition is pretty much out of the picture. That being said, she is polling below what she got last election and for whatever reason the CDU/CSU always polls higher in between elections than on election day<BR/><BR/>Sarkozy has until 2012, so the recession likely won't cost him the election. However, his UMP party has been in power since 1995 so the time for a change might work well.<BR/><BR/>Berlusconi has a majority so unless the Lega Nord pulls out of the coalition he is safe for now.<BR/><BR/>Zapatero has until 2012 and the poll numbers seem pretty stagnant there.<BR/><BR/>Kevin Rudd is actually polling at record levels for Australia so if anything he might win a larger mandate.<BR/><BR/>Obama should probably okay largely due to the mess his opponents, the Republicans are in. Also, the Democrats are more likely to get punished in the 2010 midterms than they are in the next general election. Clinton in 1994 and Reagan in 1982 all faced low approval ratings yet won by larger margins in the next election. In fact in US politics, more often than not, sitting presidents improve their vote total rather than reduce them.<BR/><BR/>In Canada, Stephen Harper is not in great shape overall and the poll numbers aren't great. The only positive he faces, is the Liberals have to win every riding they came within 13 points last election which is doable but quite difficult and that type of swing hasn't happened in one election since 1993. Still if he gets another minority, he is likely gone as leader.Monkey Loves to Fighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05122291567543761919noreply@blogger.com