tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31099203.post5105576927677229045..comments2023-07-23T04:50:58.496-04:00Comments on All Politics Is Local: Things Fall ApartAaron Ginsberghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10586651764906428965noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31099203.post-86101398663740679622008-12-02T21:45:00.000-05:002008-12-02T21:45:00.000-05:00That part of the sham was dropped this week. No, ...That part of the sham was dropped this week. No, this is fully about the economy now.WesternGrithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06658358114507615351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31099203.post-29225449288945181542008-12-02T20:31:00.000-05:002008-12-02T20:31:00.000-05:00Forgot to mention... I don't buy that the determin...Forgot to mention... I don't buy that the determinative motivation for the coalition was the lack of economic stimulus in the economic update.. Does anyone actually accept that spin?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31099203.post-56296445953320299082008-12-02T20:04:00.000-05:002008-12-02T20:04:00.000-05:00Aaron - interesting series of observations on the ...Aaron - interesting series of observations on the coalition's strategy. Of interest to me are the economic and financial implications. Since I am, at present, unemployed, clearly the picture looks a little different to me.<BR/><BR/>You appear to criticize Harper for his inaction. Hmmm. I suggest that you have a long look at the economic team that Obama has introduced. For example Christina Romer (Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors), who has re-analyzed the economic studies of the Great Depression is crystal clear that neither the New Deal nor the war were responsible for facilitating emergence from the depression. In fact, in some respects the FDR programs were counter-productive. What did permit the emergence was expansion of the money supply. The primary expansionary techniques are not fiscal - they are monetary. As such, they would not appear in an economic update at all. In fact, Harper already took such measures. Point of fact, Volcker is the past master of manipulation of the money supply, and he is the chair of the Economic Recovery Advisory Board for Obama.<BR/><BR/>Larry Summers, while supporting a fiscal side plan because of its reduced time lag, is primarily a free trade globalization guy, and his focus will be on currency. Review his history of dealing with the international currencies - Mexico, Asia and Russia. Here's another clue - so is Geithner, and Rubin, who advised Obama's campaign.<BR/><BR/>In case you are not putting the pieces together, the US will likely expand the money supply by expanding credit facilities through the Fed to the banking system - and this is already underway. The second kick comes when sufficient deleveraging has completed, and the flight to US T-Bills (last month) and mid-term bonds (current) for 'Safe Haven' is over. The US currency will be driven down to improve comparative advantage and improve manufacturing competitiveness. <BR/><BR/>This is the threat to Canada. With a continued downward pressure on oil below the marginal cost of production in Alberta, and a RISING canadian dollar, we lose a competitive edge in the auto sector in trade with the US. The big 3 canadian operations will be scrapped under the terms of any bailout from US Congress, who will insist on protection of US jobs as priority.<BR/><BR/>In these circumstances, fiscal side stimulation will simply be pouring money down the drain. Canada will have higher inflation after the oil cost reduction works its way through, and a dearth of investment opportunities. Canadian interest rates will have to rise to deal with inflation, and to increase borrowing to fund fiscal measures. This will in turn further enhance the rise of the CAD, and further erode manufacturing competitiveness for export markets.<BR/><BR/>Fiscal side measures until Obama's tactics are clear is beyond foolhardy - it could well be catastrophic. The G-20 measures are appropriate for many other countries. They are NOT for Canada.<BR/><BR/>I could not care less which of the parties run Ottawa. They will either recognize the constraints and act responsibly, or Canada will be hurt a bit more, spend a fortune for nothing, and those parties will pay the price at the next election.<BR/><BR/>The liberals know better, they really do. (Not Paul Martin or McCallum who are simply non-entities in this sphere). They have enough friends on the street to know the impact of these issues. Sadly, it appears that they are letting their ambition blind them to the risks. If they follow through on their proposals, it will get kinda ugly in the private sector.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31099203.post-40841421030228697022008-11-29T18:18:00.000-05:002008-11-29T18:18:00.000-05:00Western Grit, all of those projects would require ...Western Grit, all of those projects would require local assessments, and environmental assessments, and where does that take the stimulus?<BR/><BR/>Years down the road....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31099203.post-85624616990698124932008-11-29T16:52:00.000-05:002008-11-29T16:52:00.000-05:00A Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition would most likely foc...A Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition would most likely focus on infrastructure (roads, TCH twinning in BC and Manitoba, bridges, railways, light rail transit, rail and road links to the North, bridge to Vancouver Island, etc., etc.)...<BR/><BR/>AND - most importantly - use well-trained, accredited, ticketed union labor for all projects (limit PPPs to very minor - or no - projects)...WesternGrithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06658358114507615351noreply@blogger.com